Looking at the 2010 results is fascinating.
Another independent Shaun Moody got five percent of the vote. If half of his supporters went for Cutler instead, Cutler would be Governor now.
I do think Democrats are to blame for supporting Mitchell who finished a distant third over Cutler.
My guess is that Michaud wins this time. Anyone who really dislikes LePage would need Cutler to be in the lead to be comfortable voting for him. Michaud is the Congressman of half the residents so half the state is comfortable voting for him.
Good analysis. Iirc Libby Mitchell's already weak standing in the polls slipped further as election day approached when it becamme clear she had no chance to win and Cutler was the de facto alternative to LePage. Now Cutler's in the spoiler role this year, and his support will slip some in the next 10 days, with Michaud being the beneficiary.