GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

So based only on November turnout (which she's winning in this poll), she leads in the runoff? Shocking! Nevermind the fact that that's a completely irresponsible move by the pollster.

Jim Martin? Jim Martin! 2008. Martin, Jim.

And basically every runoff ever. Wake up from fantasy land if you think an early January runoff will have anywhere near the same kind of turnout as November's General.

There's also 1992 - which took the same trajectory - but the slide was much smaller. In fact, both candidates technically increased their share of the vote (though Fowler only did so by 0.1 point).

This type of run-off scenario hasn't been assessed yet, and considering the combined efforts of the Nunn/Carter campaign are more advanced and organized than any other campaign ever in Georgia, the dynamic may actually have potential to work in anyone's favor. Conventional wisdom suggests that a post-holiday turnout could be so low that it's possible to short-circuit the standard if ATL is organized enough. Likely? Probably not, but still worth considering. There's a point at which turnout decreases to a point that both sides could be at a disadvantage, and a strong ground-game will be all that matters.


But yeah, Nunn's getting to the point in these polls where factors like this combined with the unprecedented voter registration numbers might actually make the difference, and one that we're not yet seeing.

[Adam Griffin]

I really don't see the Libertarian doing all that well in this race. It's possible that the Libertarian in the Governor's race hits 5%, but here...she's underwhelming, not impressive, ideologically-divided (not a Rand Paul Libertarian), and this contest is increasingly becoming known as one that's coming down to the wire. Fewer people will waste their votes here, I believe. She might hit 2%, but we'll see.

It's also worth noting that we're almost out of undecideds at this point, and a good chunk - a majority - have been breaking in Nunn's direction according to the polls. Yes, this defies the trends and playing field we usually see in Georgia, but so does this entire campaign and election cycle. I don't see why she can't keep up the momentum with the ones that are left at this point.