MA: Globe has Baker +9 (user search)
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  MA: Globe has Baker +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA: Globe has Baker +9  (Read 6195 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« on: October 23, 2014, 09:33:18 PM »

Adios Coakley!

Though, the globe does need to push undecideds a lot more. Seriously!

"Only" 8% undecideds in this one, although the three independents (who probably shouldn't be included unless volunteered, IMO) get 7%.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2014, 10:32:54 PM »

I didn't really follow the primaries for this state.  Was there no one else that the Democrats could have put up to run?
Basically any Democrat other than Coakley would have won.

Not necessarily; the race has developed in the way it has more because Baker is running a strong campaign than because Coakley running a weak one. In pre-primary polls Grossman and Berwick were losing to Baker (by high double digits in the latter case), while Coakley was still winning by double digits.

Grossman was probably still the better candidate despite the polls, because he is the better politician, he's fairly centrist, and (most importantly) he was the choice of the state Democratic Party establishment, which has been giving Coakley almost zero GOTV support compared to its usual efforts. Polls have been showing Baker nearly tying Coakley in Boston and the inner suburbs, and winning by a huge margin in Central MA (Worcester) for that reason.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 11:02:37 AM »

While it would probably be a bad idea to infer too much from crosstabs of 33 and 27 people, respectively, the poll has Baker up 65-28 in the North Shore (MA-6), but down 40-49 in the Cape & Islands and South Coast (MA-9). Probably R and D-biased samples, respectively, but if they're anywhere near true it means Tisei has a great chance but Keating is safe.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2014, 04:22:22 PM »


I didn't buy it either until the Coakley camp responded by releasing an internal showing her down 2.
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