IL: Chicago Tribune: Rauner+2

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Illinois Governor by Chicago Tribune on 2014-10-21

Summary: D: 43%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Grumpier Than Thou]

lolwut

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Rauner Defeats Quinn"

[King]

A 13 point swing to Rauner since their last poll. Raunermentum. Rauner will win 70% of the vote.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Huh.


The cross tabs show Quinn winning suburban Cook 50% - 41%. Can anyone give me context on how that holds up to 2010 and earlier elections? And what about the 66%(!) of collar county voters supporting Rauner? I can't find any detailed polls from 2010.

They also show:
- Obama's approval ratings are underwater 47% - 46% (down from 52% approval)
- white women break for Rauner 57% - 35%, a big change from 41% tie
- Quinn's support among women is 45% to 41%, down from a 12% lead earlier.
- Rauner is winning white 55% - 34%, a big change from 45% - 40%
- Rauner wins indies 55% - 29%, up from 44% - 33%
- Quinn's job approval rating is 34% with 53% disapproving
- Rauner is viewed slightly more favorably than unfavorably, a small change from a month ago
- Rauner wins economy and budget voters, while Quinn is rated more honest, trustworthy, and in-touch

What is the Trib's track record? While I'd like to believe this, it just seems a bit too optimistic and the huge swing is weird.

[IceSpear]

Interesting, I guess Rauner isn't dead yet. Still, he's gonna need a bigger lead than this to be considered the favorite considering what happened in 2010.

[Mr. Illini]

The Trib's polls this year smell like absolute garbage. They showed Quinn up 11 at the beginning of his surge and now he is down 2? Even though the trend was going in the opposite direction during that period?

I'm skeptical.