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  IA-Monmouth: Ernst +1; Branstad curbstomps
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Author Topic: IA-Monmouth: Ernst +1; Branstad curbstomps  (Read 2218 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 22, 2014, 09:59:46 am »
« edited: October 23, 2014, 01:35:27 am by Dave Leip »

Link

Ernst: 47%
Braley: 46%

Branstad: 58%
Hatch: 37%
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 10:18:41 am »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 12:00:41 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 12:05:28 pm »

Sabato may have no choice but to return this to Toss-Up tomorrow...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 12:18:55 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 12:22:38 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 12:25:09 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!


Polls, plural. I suggest you look at the averages and plug then into your spin machine.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 12:26:57 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!

Krazen is technically not wrong here. Ernst is +2.5 in RCP. Hagan +2.

Both races are tossups/slight leans to the ladies at this point.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2014, 12:31:17 pm »
« Edited: October 22, 2014, 12:38:51 pm by IceSpear »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!

Krazen is technically not wrong here. Ernst is +2.5 in RCP. Hagan +2.

Both races are tossups/slight leans to the ladies at this point.

Not all polls are created equal. PPP/Selzer/SUSA/Quinnipiac are far superior to Ras, Gravis, etc.

Expanding on this a bit, weighing all polls equally is one way to look at data, but it's not always the best way. More sophisticated models will adjust based on a pollster's track record and house effect. Selzer, which is one of the top rated pollsters in the country, is far more relevant to the state of a race than some junk Gravis or Ras poll.

In addition, RCP tends to pick and choose which polls they include. They didn't include PPP's poll, and also aren't including any of these Monmouth polls either. They didn't include the Reason/Rupe generic ballot poll showing Dems +9, or the Politico poll showing Dems up. But they have no problem including the AP poll released today showing Reps +8.
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Ryan in Iowa
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2014, 12:36:01 pm »

[
Ernst: 47%
Braley: 46%

Branstad: 58%
Hatch: 37%
[/quote]

This poll has a party registration sample of +6R, self reported party sample of +1R, a very, very old likely voter sample and Ernst is up one. That electorate is not going to happen, bet on it.

I have no doubt that Braley is going to win this race.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2014, 01:16:01 pm »

Are mon polls legit? RCP didn't put in yesterdays
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 01:31:02 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!

Krazen is technically not wrong here. Ernst is +2.5 in RCP. Hagan +2.

Both races are tossups/slight leans to the ladies at this point.

Not all polls are created equal. PPP/Selzer/SUSA/Quinnipiac are far superior to Ras, Gravis, etc.

Expanding on this a bit, weighing all polls equally is one way to look at data, but it's not always the best way. More sophisticated models will adjust based on a pollster's track record and house effect. Selzer, which is one of the top rated pollsters in the country, is far more relevant to the state of a race than some junk Gravis or Ras poll.

In addition, RCP tends to pick and choose which polls they include. They didn't include PPP's poll, and also aren't including any of these Monmouth polls either. They didn't include the Reason/Rupe generic ballot poll showing Dems +9, or the Politico poll showing Dems up. But they have no problem including the AP poll released today showing Reps +8.

Come on. There is a serious lack of intellectual honesty here. Let's deconstruct and use 538 blog.

Chances of Ernst winning Iowa - 65%
Chances of Hagan winning NC - 73%

Both races are in the tossup/slight lean category. One is lean D, the other lean R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2014, 01:36:24 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!

Krazen is technically not wrong here. Ernst is +2.5 in RCP. Hagan +2.

Both races are tossups/slight leans to the ladies at this point.

Not all polls are created equal. PPP/Selzer/SUSA/Quinnipiac are far superior to Ras, Gravis, etc.

Expanding on this a bit, weighing all polls equally is one way to look at data, but it's not always the best way. More sophisticated models will adjust based on a pollster's track record and house effect. Selzer, which is one of the top rated pollsters in the country, is far more relevant to the state of a race than some junk Gravis or Ras poll.

In addition, RCP tends to pick and choose which polls they include. They didn't include PPP's poll, and also aren't including any of these Monmouth polls either. They didn't include the Reason/Rupe generic ballot poll showing Dems +9, or the Politico poll showing Dems up. But they have no problem including the AP poll released today showing Reps +8.

Come on. There is a serious lack of intellectual honesty here. Let's deconstruct and use 538 blog.

Chances of Ernst winning Iowa - 65%
Chances of Hagan winning NC - 73%

Both races are in the tossup/slight lean category. One is lean D, the other lean R.

You ignored most of my points. It's arbitrary what the percentage cutoff for "lean" and "toss up" is. In the Atlas poll database, the one that includes all polls unlike RCP, Ernst is up 1 point ("toss up") and Hagan is up 3 points ("Slight Hagan"). As I said in the NC thread, Hagan's race borders on the edge of toss up and lean D. But even using those very percentages you just quoted, Ernst has a slightly worse chance than Hagan. So how is saying it's a toss up "a lack of intellectual honesty"?
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Chance92
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2014, 02:43:23 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!


Polls, plural. I suggest you look at the averages and plug then into your spin machine.

Is every Republican on this site an insufferable f**k? Welcome to ignore.
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politicus
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2014, 02:47:21 pm »

Glorious! Bailey's got no shot in a non PPP goosed poll.

There really isn't that big a difference between Braley +1 and Ernst +1, you know. And the gold standard poll shows the latter as well. This race is clearly a pure toss up in the minds of everyone but Larry Sabato.

Ernst is winning by just as much as Hagan in the polls. The spin machine here is quite nice.

3 = 1

Krazen math!


Polls, plural. I suggest you look at the averages and plug then into your spin machine.

Is every Republican on this site an insufferable f**k? Welcome to ignore.

Krazen is a special case of malign trollitis.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2014, 02:50:37 pm »
« Edited: October 22, 2014, 03:54:09 pm by Recalcuate »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2014, 05:18:35 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2014, 05:21:28 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).

Whatever makes you feel good. I'm sure you have Colorado as a tossup as well.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2014, 05:27:46 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).

Whatever makes you feel good. I'm sure you have Colorado as a tossup as well.

Haha, when your only rebuttal is a snippy comment as opposed to addressing the facts, that's when you know you've lost the argument.

Just out of curiosity, did you accidentally hit "I" when trying to select "R"?
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2014, 06:09:02 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).

Whatever makes you feel good. I'm sure you have Colorado as a tossup as well.

Haha, when your only rebuttal is a snippy comment as opposed to addressing the facts, that's when you know you've lost the argument.

Just out of curiosity, did you accidentally hit "I" when trying to select "R"?


No, sorry, I just tell it like it is. I have no dog in this hunt.

It's just exhausting arguing with partisans that look at numbers through a prism. Numbers are numbers at the end of the day. They aren't a means to an ends ripe for manipulation based on the candidate of your choosing and whatever special sauce you want to sprinkle on it to make you feel better.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2014, 06:14:28 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).

Whatever makes you feel good. I'm sure you have Colorado as a tossup as well.

Haha, when your only rebuttal is a snippy comment as opposed to addressing the facts, that's when you know you've lost the argument.

Just out of curiosity, did you accidentally hit "I" when trying to select "R"?


No, sorry, I just tell it like it is. I have no dog in this hunt.

It's just exhausting arguing with partisans that look at numbers through a prism. Numbers are numbers at the end of the day. They aren't a means to an ends ripe for manipulation based on the candidate of your choosing and whatever special sauce you want to sprinkle on it to make you feel better.

Indeed, numbers are numbers. 3 is not 1. 65% is not 73%. The races are factually not equivalent. So all we're really arguing about is subjective interpretations of "lean" and "toss up" (i.e. nothing).
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2014, 06:22:11 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).

Whatever makes you feel good. I'm sure you have Colorado as a tossup as well.

Haha, when your only rebuttal is a snippy comment as opposed to addressing the facts, that's when you know you've lost the argument.

Just out of curiosity, did you accidentally hit "I" when trying to select "R"?


No, sorry, I just tell it like it is. I have no dog in this hunt.

It's just exhausting arguing with partisans that look at numbers through a prism. Numbers are numbers at the end of the day. They aren't a means to an ends ripe for manipulation based on the candidate of your choosing and whatever special sauce you want to sprinkle on it to make you feel better.

Indeed, numbers are numbers. 3 is not 1. 65% is not 73%. The races are factually not equivalent. So all we're really arguing about is subjective interpretations of "lean" and "toss up" (i.e. nothing).

No. We are really not. 2.5 is 2. I'll take RCP over some of the fast and loose quasi-internal advocacy group and not publicly released/recalled polls that we've added to the database here.

73 is close enough to 65 to be as meaningless at 2.5 and 2.

Neither seat is even close to anything other than a tossup/slight lean at this point in time.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2014, 06:32:16 pm »

How is it intellectual dishonesty?

Because it's subjective rather than objective. Both these races are basically in the same state right now -- basically within the MOE, but one candidate has a slight lean. 

If you throw the party names out the window, you'd concede the point.

Again, they're factually not equivalent. The Atlas database has Hagan up 3 and Ernst up 1. The 538 percentages YOU posted have Ernst with an 8% less chance than Hagan. If I'm of the opinion that NC is currently barely retaining lean D status (which I am), then it logically follows that I would see someone in a slightly worse position as a toss up race (which I do).

Whatever makes you feel good. I'm sure you have Colorado as a tossup as well.

Haha, when your only rebuttal is a snippy comment as opposed to addressing the facts, that's when you know you've lost the argument.

Just out of curiosity, did you accidentally hit "I" when trying to select "R"?


No, sorry, I just tell it like it is. I have no dog in this hunt.

It's just exhausting arguing with partisans that look at numbers through a prism. Numbers are numbers at the end of the day. They aren't a means to an ends ripe for manipulation based on the candidate of your choosing and whatever special sauce you want to sprinkle on it to make you feel better.

Indeed, numbers are numbers. 3 is not 1. 65% is not 73%. The races are factually not equivalent. So all we're really arguing about is subjective interpretations of "lean" and "toss up" (i.e. nothing).

No. We are really not. 2.5 is 2. I'll take RCP over some of the fast and loose quasi-internal advocacy group and not publicly released/recalled polls that we've added to the database here.

73 is close enough to 65 to be as meaningless at 2.5 and 2.

Neither seat is even close to anything other than a tossup/slight lean at this point in time.

Well, that's just like, your opinion man. I already gave examples of RCP omitting polls that weren't quasi internals just because the results were too good for Democrats (check Pollster if you want to see the Reason-Rupe poll, which they included in the past but didn't this time). They are also omitting this poll for mysterious reasons which would decrease Ernst 's numbers even more.

Besides, if someone has their arbitrary cutoff between toss up and lean as 2 points, who are you to tell them that's incorrect?
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