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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On.....
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Author Topic: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On.....  (Read 5804 times)
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2014, 08:15:11 am »

Your answer, from the first paragraph, agrees with what I've been thinking. But, from the second paragraph, I disagree because it should be encouraged to move the United States people off the rigged system of having mostly uncompetitive U.S. House races.

But there's a difference between races being uncompetitive because lines have been drawn in a contrived way to make them uncompetitive, and races being uncompetitive because a natural district happens to share an opinion on who should represent it.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2014, 08:22:21 am »

Your answer, from the first paragraph, agrees with what I've been thinking. But, from the second paragraph, I disagree because it should be encouraged to move the United States people off the rigged system of having mostly uncompetitive U.S. House races.

But there's a difference between races being uncompetitive because lines have been drawn in a contrived way to make them uncompetitive, and races being uncompetitive because a natural district happens to share an opinion on who should represent it.
What makes a 'natural' district, there is no objective standard for what makes a district.

That being said, I don't think every district should be made competitive (if that were even possible).    Both very conservative and very liberal voices should be represented in the House.  They just shouldn't hold as much sway as they do now, where they prevent any sort of cooperation from happening.
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Slander and/or Libel
Figs
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2014, 08:24:03 am »

Your answer, from the first paragraph, agrees with what I've been thinking. But, from the second paragraph, I disagree because it should be encouraged to move the United States people off the rigged system of having mostly uncompetitive U.S. House races.

But there's a difference between races being uncompetitive because lines have been drawn in a contrived way to make them uncompetitive, and races being uncompetitive because a natural district happens to share an opinion on who should represent it.
What makes a 'natural' district, there is no objective standard for what makes a district.

That being said, I don't think every district should be made competitive (if that were even possible).    Both very conservative and very liberal voices should be represented in the House.  They just shouldn't hold as much sway as they do now, where they prevent any sort of cooperation from happening.

I don't think "safe districts" equates to "very conservative and very liberal" districts.

I'm not versed enough to speak terribly well to the "natural"ness of districts, but suffice it to say that there are districts that better represent coherent communities of interest than do others.
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DS0816
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2014, 09:48:44 am »

How about a majority Democrat-appointed SCOTUS overturning gerrymandering in 2018-2020?

I doubt Scalia or Kennedy will retire before 2020.

Wikipedia says they're both 78 currently while Ginsburg is 81 and Breyer is 76. Is there cumulative data on the ages when Justices step down? Those four look like prime retirement candidates in the next six years.

I don't know.

The seven justices prior to President Barack Obama are an average age of 71.

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Icefire9
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« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2014, 08:50:52 pm »


This depressing map is now where redistricting prospects stand.  Grey states either have mixed control, are under an independent commission, or only have a single congressional district.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2014, 09:09:47 pm »


This depressing map is now where redistricting prospects stand.  Grey states either have mixed control, are under an independent commission, or only have a single congressional district.

Connecticut has a 2/3rds requirement (which Dems don't have), and Hawaii has a commission.  But Massachusetts, Maryland and Illinois Dems can still override a veto, so they should be red.  West Virginia should be blue because they have simple-majority override and Republicans have both chambers.  Kentucky is also a simple majority state, so unless the lower house stays D for the decade, they will be able to gerrymander Yarmuth out in 2021.  And the supreme court is probably about to let Republicans redraw Arizona.  It's going to be a loooonnngggg decade for House Dems unless they get like a 61%/38% generic ballot in their favor.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2014, 09:28:14 pm »


Thanks!
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Devils30
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« Reply #32 on: November 10, 2014, 03:45:35 pm »

As bad as this is, if Dems gain the Govs in WI, MI, FL, OH in 2018 and pick up the NY senate in 2020, things will get a lot easier. Way too early to predict all this.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2014, 04:45:38 pm »


This depressing map is now where redistricting prospects stand.  Grey states either have mixed control, are under an independent commission, or only have a single congressional district.

Connecticut has a 2/3rds requirement (which Dems don't have), and Hawaii has a commission.  But Massachusetts, Maryland and Illinois Dems can still override a veto, so they should be red.  West Virginia should be blue because they have simple-majority override and Republicans have both chambers.  Kentucky is also a simple majority state, so unless the lower house stays D for the decade, they will be able to gerrymander Yarmuth out in 2021.  And the supreme court is probably about to let Republicans redraw Arizona.  It's going to be a loooonnngggg decade for House Dems unless they get like a 61%/38% generic ballot in their favor.

What grounds with the Supreme Court be able to have Republicans get to redraw Arizona, unless they kill commissions across the country? Also I think it is possible that Kentucky GOP might keep Louisville together, similar to how the Tennessee GOP kept Nashville. Also I think they'd be setting themselves up for a court case if hey split the black ares up in Louisville.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #34 on: November 10, 2014, 06:33:43 pm »

If SCOTUS kills commissions in Arizona, then Democrats get to gerrymander California, so that's not really a big loss.
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