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  CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1
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Author Topic: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1  (Read 1423 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 21, 2014, 10:34:34 am »
« edited: October 21, 2014, 11:00:14 am by Dave Leip »

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backtored
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:39:52 am »

I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2014, 10:41:43 am »

Gardner is leading in every poll, yes, but his numbers are still looking suspiciously Buck 2010-esque. Still a very small sliver of hope.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2014, 10:44:06 am »

I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.


To a certain extent, that doesn't always indicate who is doing better in the early vote, since you don't know how voters are actually voting. The difference could be in independents.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2014, 10:47:22 am »

Stick a probe in his uterus.
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2014, 10:48:30 am »

The crosstabs look pretty reasonable.
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2014, 10:49:02 am »

As long as its still only 1-3 points for Gardner it's in play considering COs history. Still, I saw nothing wrong at all with PPPs sample.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2014, 10:49:56 am »

I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.


Margin of error + independents are probably breaking towards Udall pretty heavily + many Democrats have likely sent in ballots that haven't arrived or been processed yet.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2014, 10:51:39 am »

Now more like it. Now, the one that has the best close will win.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 10:54:37 am »

Didn't Bennet win with sub-40 approvals as well ?

Anyway, still way too early to call this for Gardner. Udall still has a chance.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 10:58:47 am »

Gardner is clearly ahead now, you can argue that. The vote by mail and same day registration is a wildcard though. Considering Dems already beat polling numbers before this it adds something more to the uncertainty. Really will not know the truth until 11 pm in two weeks.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 11:11:37 am »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Monmouth University on 2014-10-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 11:13:10 am »

Didn't Bennet win with sub-40 approvals as well ?

Anyway, still way too early to call this for Gardner. Udall still has a chance.

Yeah, PPP had Bennet at 39/47 going into the election.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2014, 11:16:00 am »

Gardner is leading in every poll, yes, but his numbers are still looking suspiciously Buck 2010-esque. Still a very small sliver of hope.

Indeed, Buck was leading in almost all of the final polls, some of them by 4 points:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010


I think it's a mistake to write off Udall, especially considering that Colorado now has mail-in voting as opposed to previous years.  
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2014, 11:23:56 am »

Of course, there's redistricting and voter laws that are the difference between 2010 and 2014, but are there any demographic changes to consider?
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2014, 11:33:59 am »

Probably a couple points less white and more latino. That's about it. Buck  won whites by 7% and lost by 1.6. I assume Udall can lose whites by 9-10 with demographic change and win but once his deficit gets into the 11-13% range like the PPP poll I don't see it.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2014, 12:01:15 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2014, 12:02:58 pm by IDS Emperor Maxwell »

Didn't Bennet win with sub-40 approvals as well ?

Anyway, still way too early to call this for Gardner. Udall still has a chance.

Yes, but his net-negatives weren't nearly as high as Udall's is right now. (Bennet was at -7, Udall is at -15). Also, unlike Buck, Gardner has a narrowly positive favorable rating.

No question Udall still has a shot at this.
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2014, 12:25:23 pm »

I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.


The sample size for that subsample is very small.   It is 1/4 of the sample, which is probably only around 100 voters.  That gives a margin of error around +/- 10.
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2014, 01:10:18 pm »

The CO senate could be interesting because the districts that the GOP won in the recalls are very Democratic and with even moderate turnout could flip back even in a bad Dem year.
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