KS: Momouth: Tie at 46% (user search)

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  KS: Momouth: Tie at 46% (search mode)
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Author Topic: KS: Momouth: Tie at 46%  (Read 2233 times)
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003

« on: October 20, 2014, 11:36:59 AM »

I wrote this almost eight days ago. Looks like a 5% Roberts victory is where we are headed.

If you run a plot of Roberts's and Orman's absolute polling numbers with the date that the poll was taken, you notice that Orman's numbers have not budged from ~46% since Taylor's withdrawal from the race, whereas Roberts has been gaining a percentage point roughly every four days. This trend exists even if you omit the anomalous FOX poll from the sample. From a pure momentum standpoint, Roberts is on track to win this race by around 5 points.

While momentum is overrated as a metric of one-on-one races, it could be indicative of a trend of the undecided voters, especially since it seems to be solely a movement of undecideds toward the Roberts camp. Given that Orman currently leads by roughly 2 points, I will split the difference and say Roberts wins this by a percentage point.
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