PPP-IA: Braley +1

[Vosem]

Guys, when you conduct 10 polls of a race where one candidate leads by 1-3 points, you're bound to get 1 or 2 that show the other candidate with a narrow lead. This is totally consistent with what we know, and Ernst is still on track to win.

[Vosem]

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

It's not, and we're still gaining eight seats

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

Adding this quote to my signature.

[Vosem]

Well, Braley will get "owned" much more brutally in a few weeks, which should be even more fun to watch.

[Vosem]

Well, Braley will get "owned" much more brutally in a few weeks, which should be even more fun to watch.

If you consider losing by a point or two being owned, then maybe.

Certainly losing what you have worked for over the past two years (and probably planned for much longer) and, considering the quality of his campaign, probably losing any chance for a future in elective politics counts as getting owned. Al Franken owned Norm Coleman in 2008, even if it was just by 300 votes.

[Vosem]

PPP only has Braley up by 1.  Ouch.  That's not a good sign for him.  I think he's finished guys.

What's not a good sign for Braley is that this was released by a left-wing group, which means they have not had any better results for Braley than up 1; while there've been plenty of polls showing Ernst up 2-4 points. The volume and nature of polling here is sufficient to say that Ernst is up in the very low single digits (even though for a single poll with such a result is within the margin of error, it's not the case when you have a bunch). Consider that in Colorado, where Gardner is actually polling slightly better than Ernst, Democrats have managed to release two internals showing Udall up three (though, tbf, from less reputable sources than PPP).

When will KCDem be banned?

There've always been hacks who join right before an election, and they always leave right afterwards, even if their party does do well. If nothing is done to permanent hacks (and we all tolerate Dr. Scholl and Krazen and whatnot) it doesn't seem to make sense to go after KCDem and his ilk.