GA: WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Nunn +1
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:52:57 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  GA: WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Nunn +1
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: GA: WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Nunn +1  (Read 2315 times)
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2014, 08:49:43 AM »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2014, 10:44:28 AM »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2014, 11:17:55 AM »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan

Wow. That seems like a tremendous waste of time, resources and taxpayer dollars.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2014, 01:14:44 PM »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan

Wow. That seems like a tremendous waste of time, resources and taxpayer dollars.

This is what happens when Republicans make election calendars. Another example: Christie scheduling the special Senate election like 2 weeks before the general last year.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2014, 08:02:05 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2014, 08:10:00 PM by Recalcuate »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan

Wow. That seems like a tremendous waste of time, resources and taxpayer dollars.

This is what happens when Republicans make election calendars. Another example: Christie scheduling the special Senate election like 2 weeks before the general last year.

I think it has more to do with the Feds meddling in Georgia's existing runoff laws than anything else. You have to send absentees out 45 days before a Federal election. Obviously, you have to give time to print the ballots and take absentee requests.

The Georgia statute requires a runoff 28 days after the general election for state elections not subject to Federal statute.

Since Fed law trumps state laws on Fed elections, they pushed the 2014 runoff past the holidays into January. They don't have the same luxury with the state-wide elections as they are constrained by the statute.

Sourcing:
O.C.G.A. 21-5-501 http://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/21-2-501

2012 complaints by Feds about Ga schedule: http://onlineathens.com/breaking-news/2012-06-22/doj-ga-runoff-schedule-violates-federal-law
Logged
RRusso1982
Rookie
**
Posts: 207
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2014, 08:27:44 PM »

I really think there should be a federal law making a uniform standard for federal elections.  The law should be very simple:

Elections for federal office are held the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November.  Period.  End of story. 

States should be able to do whatever they want for governor's races, or state constitutional office, or for state legislative races, but there should be a federal law regarding Senate and House elections.  I think the whole runoff system is stupid.  In Georgia, if the election goes to a runoff, the runoff will be on January 6th.  That is after the new Congress convenes.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2014, 09:30:32 PM »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan

Wow. That seems like a tremendous waste of time, resources and taxpayer dollars.

This is what happens when Republicans make election calendars. Another example: Christie scheduling the special Senate election like 2 weeks before the general last year.

I think it has more to do with the Feds meddling in Georgia's existing runoff laws than anything else. You have to send absentees out 45 days before a Federal election. Obviously, you have to give time to print the ballots and take absentee requests.

The Georgia statute requires a runoff 28 days after the general election for state elections not subject to Federal statute.

Since Fed law trumps state laws on Fed elections, they pushed the 2014 runoff past the holidays into January. They don't have the same luxury with the state-wide elections as they are constrained by the statute.

Sourcing:
O.C.G.A. 21-5-501 http://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/21-2-501

2012 complaints by Feds about Ga schedule: http://onlineathens.com/breaking-news/2012-06-22/doj-ga-runoff-schedule-violates-federal-law


Be real. GA could've just as easily complied with federal election law and put both elections on the later date. This is all about lowering turnout because.......well. Sad
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2014, 09:42:46 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2014, 09:46:14 PM by Recalcuate »

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan

Wow. That seems like a tremendous waste of time, resources and taxpayer dollars.

This is what happens when Republicans make election calendars. Another example: Christie scheduling the special Senate election like 2 weeks before the general last year.

I think it has more to do with the Feds meddling in Georgia's existing runoff laws than anything else. You have to send absentees out 45 days before a Federal election. Obviously, you have to give time to print the ballots and take absentee requests.

The Georgia statute requires a runoff 28 days after the general election for state elections not subject to Federal statute.

Since Fed law trumps state laws on Fed elections, they pushed the 2014 runoff past the holidays into January. They don't have the same luxury with the state-wide elections as they are constrained by the statute.

Sourcing:
O.C.G.A. 21-5-501 http://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/21-2-501

2012 complaints by Feds about Ga schedule: http://onlineathens.com/breaking-news/2012-06-22/doj-ga-runoff-schedule-violates-federal-law


Be real. GA could've just as easily complied with federal election law and put both elections on the later date. This is all about lowering turnout because.......well. Sad

ONLY if the statute was amended by the legislature. Easier said than done. The SoS has very little discretion here.

The Georgia legislative session is not as long as in most states. My guess is that if you end up with two separate big ticket runoffs, that will happen in the next session.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2014, 10:00:06 PM »

The SoS had a ton of discretion in the case, the judge actually gave him a chance to propose an amended calendar that complied with the law but his only idea was "derp let's allow people to keep sending in ballots after we count all the votes"
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2014, 10:12:16 PM »

The SoS had a ton of discretion in the case, the judge actually gave him a chance to propose an amended calendar that complied with the law but his only idea was "derp let's allow people to keep sending in ballots after we count all the votes"

Propose something that complies with Georgia statute and the Federal law at the same time in this scenario if the legislature doesn't act if you are the SoS.

The 28-day state law runoff requirement is a hard date for state races. The 45-day minimum absentee ballot federal law requirement is a requirement in the Federal races. The only way out of the box is for the legislature to rewrite the law to mirror the Federal requirements. Otherwise you are stuck with two runoffs.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2014, 10:28:07 PM »

The SoS had a ton of discretion in the case, the judge actually gave him a chance to propose an amended calendar that complied with the law but his only idea was "derp let's allow people to keep sending in ballots after we count all the votes"

Propose something that complies with Georgia statute and the Federal law at the same time in this scenario if the legislature doesn't act if you are the SoS.

The 28-day state law runoff requirement is a hard date for state races. The 45-day minimum absentee ballot federal law requirement is a requirement in the Federal races. The only way out of the box is for the legislature to rewrite the law to mirror the Federal requirements. Otherwise you are stuck with two runoffs.

And if turnout wasn't THE key to winning the runoff, do you really believe the leg wouldn't have readily changed said law?
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 18, 2014, 10:11:29 AM »

The SoS had a ton of discretion in the case, the judge actually gave him a chance to propose an amended calendar that complied with the law but his only idea was "derp let's allow people to keep sending in ballots after we count all the votes"

Propose something that complies with Georgia statute and the Federal law at the same time in this scenario if the legislature doesn't act if you are the SoS.

The 28-day state law runoff requirement is a hard date for state races. The 45-day minimum absentee ballot federal law requirement is a requirement in the Federal races. The only way out of the box is for the legislature to rewrite the law to mirror the Federal requirements. Otherwise you are stuck with two runoffs.

And if turnout wasn't THE key to winning the runoff, do you really believe the leg wouldn't have readily changed said law?

The way the Georgia legislature operates, I would not assume an ulterior motive. They are only in session for a few months out of the year.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 20, 2014, 04:35:55 AM »

It should be noted that the GA legislature had no difficulties in passing a bill that officially enshrined the judge's calendar into law for the 2014 cycle, once the judge had ruled

The easy thing Georgia could have (and should have) done would be to give overseas absentee voters a ranked choice ballot for the runoff, which is how LA/SC/AL/MS comply with the Federal law
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.232 seconds with 14 queries.