KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Even if it is Rassy, this can't be too far from what it'll be like on election day. Grimes crashed her own campaign and deserves to lose for it. Unbelievable how she blew a chance at a seat that never should have been competitive in the first place.

Wait, are you saying the Democrat should've won in a landslide in Kentucky?

No no, quite the opposite. I'm saying Kentucky is usually very safe for the Republicans, even if it is Mitch McConnell running. The fact that she had a chance to win the seat was pretty surprising.

Not really, considering McConnell's history. 2002 aside, McConnell never wins by landslide margins and is used to having competitive races - in fact his experience winning previous tough races probably helped him win this one. McConnell's win margins for all his senate races are:

1984: 0.4%
1990: 4.4%
1996: 12.6%
2002: 29.4%
2008: 6.0%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not really, considering McConnell's history. 2002 aside, McConnell never wins by landslide margins and is used to having competitive races - in fact his experience winning previous tough races probably helped him win this one. McConnell's win margins for all his senate races are:

1984: 0.4%
1990: 4.4%
1996: 12.6%
2002: 29.4%
2008: 6.0%

Why was he so strong in '02?

No clue, actually. Perhaps Bush's high approval ratings at the time rubbed off on him or something.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, the Democrats openly refused to recruit strong candidates in 2002 because 9/11 scared them. I am not making this up. I remember Rush Limbaugh gloating about it.

They don't seem to have abided by that in at least 3 races: In AR (this was when Pryor was first elected to the senate), NH (Where then-gov. Shaheen was the candidate and nearly won), and TN (where Alexander was held to just 54% of the vote in a very republican state).