GA: WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Nunn +1

[Badger]

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

At the end of the day though, the libertarian vote won't be six-percent on Election Day, so a 2-point lead would probably get you very close to 50%. Libertarians will poll around 6-percent in Georgia, but end up in the 2-3 point range when people pull the lever on Election Day.

Don't forget there's also the Governor's race in Georgia. If that goes to a runoff as well, you'll have higher turnout. It will basically be a general election redux.

There would be two seperate runoffs in Georgia.  The Governor's race in December, the Senate in early Jan

Wow. That seems like a tremendous waste of time, resources and taxpayer dollars.

This is what happens when Republicans make election calendars. Another example: Christie scheduling the special Senate election like 2 weeks before the general last year.

I think it has more to do with the Feds meddling in Georgia's existing runoff laws than anything else. You have to send absentees out 45 days before a Federal election. Obviously, you have to give time to print the ballots and take absentee requests.

The Georgia statute requires a runoff 28 days after the general election for state elections not subject to Federal statute.

Since Fed law trumps state laws on Fed elections, they pushed the 2014 runoff past the holidays into January. They don't have the same luxury with the state-wide elections as they are constrained by the statute.

Sourcing:
O.C.G.A. 21-5-501 http://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/21-2-501

2012 complaints by Feds about Ga schedule: http://onlineathens.com/breaking-news/2012-06-22/doj-ga-runoff-schedule-violates-federal-law

Be real. GA could've just as easily complied with federal election law and put both elections on the later date. This is all about lowering turnout because.......well.

[Badger]

The SoS had a ton of discretion in the case, the judge actually gave him a chance to propose an amended calendar that complied with the law but his only idea was "derp let's allow people to keep sending in ballots after we count all the votes"

Propose something that complies with Georgia statute and the Federal law at the same time in this scenario if the legislature doesn't act if you are the SoS.

The 28-day state law runoff requirement is a hard date for state races. The 45-day minimum absentee ballot federal law requirement is a requirement in the Federal races. The only way out of the box is for the legislature to rewrite the law to mirror the Federal requirements. Otherwise you are stuck with two runoffs.

And if turnout wasn't THE key to winning the runoff, do you really believe the leg wouldn't have readily changed said law?