CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead

[Mehmentum]

If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

I still think Udall will win, but if he doesn't, I really don't see what else he could have possibly done to win this race. The difference between candidates is clear here.

If that's the attitude the Democratic party is going to take, then we will keep making the same mistakes over and over.  We need to learn from failure, not pretend that nothing is wrong to try to save face. 

[Mehmentum]

If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.

This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)

[Mehmentum]

If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.

This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)

Have you seen the polls? Of course it's a Republican year. Just like 2006 was a Democrat year.

Of course I've seen the polls.  Did you see my post?  Democrats losing races in conservative states should not be surprising.