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  IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4  (Read 1651 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« on: October 15, 2014, 09:21:01 pm »

The Quinnipiac poll released earlier showed Braley up 48-43 with independents. Suffolk shows Ernst winning them 48-32.

Yeah, I noticed this as well. Pretty strange.

You see, this is the difference between 'unskewed' and analysis of polling data. The unskewed nonsense was based on a GOP fantasy that 2004 was the new baseline and in fact normal when it comes to turnout and party ID. Forgetting that party ID has become MORE fluid with a surge in self-identified independents actually being disenchanted Republicans, who still vote that way... but that's a fundamental lack of understanding and you know... not being able to read graphs.

Part of the reason a lot of us were very confident in the lead up to the 2012 election that Obama would win, was because of skewed polling, but skewed in favour of Republican, not Obama. We went through ALL of this... latino underpolling, overly-tight lv screens... and in the end who was right?

So, when we see two polls that provide massive differentials such as this one among Independents or when one as a massive, gaping RV/LV discrepancy.... it's not 'unskewing' in the derisory sense, to say... this doesn't make sense.

I know this isn't limited to this poll alone... but I wanted to vent that.
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