WI: Marquette: Tied with LVs
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  WI: Marquette: Tied with LVs
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Author Topic: WI: Marquette: Tied with LVs  (Read 5829 times)
Miles
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« on: October 15, 2014, 12:20:40 PM »
« edited: October 15, 2014, 12:28:17 PM by Miles »

Report coming.

Walker (R)- 47%
Burke (D)- 47%

With RVs, Walker actually leads 48/45.

Walker went from winning Indies 53/40 last time to losing them 44/45 now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 12:28:41 PM »

RIP Walker.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 12:31:07 PM »

Take a bow, Scotty.
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windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 12:33:26 PM »

Strange, normally, registered voters are more democrats.


Well, I still believe he will win in the end.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 12:48:28 PM »

To those looking into the cross tabs and wondering what exactly Wisconsin's media markets are, this map should help.

City of Milwaukee: Burke 76-21
Madison Media Market: Burke 59-32
Milwaukee Media Market (minus City of Milwaukee): Walker 53-40
Green Bay Media Market: Walker 58-39
Remaining Media Markets: Walker 51-46

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backtored
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 01:18:55 PM »

To those looking into the cross tabs and wondering what exactly Wisconsin's media markets are, this map should help.

City of Milwaukee: Burke 76-21
Madison Media Market: Burke 59-32
Milwaukee Media Market (minus City of Milwaukee): Walker 53-40
Green Bay Media Market: Walker 58-39
Remaining Media Markets: Walker 51-46



Is it correct to say that Walker is underperforming in the Milwaukee suburbs?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 01:24:50 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2014, 01:26:52 PM by OC »

Voter ID Law and min wage difference maker, now.
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mypalfish
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 01:28:49 PM »

MU Poll is the best in WI, but Walker up 2 among men and Burke up 1 among women?

I can understand the volatility with Independents, but not the gender breakdown this time.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 01:35:20 PM »

MU Poll is the best in WI, but Walker up 2 among men and Burke up 1 among women?

I can understand the volatility with Independents, but not the gender breakdown this time.

Thats the only thing about this poll that I'm suspect of. I the last poll, Walker was leading 62/34 (!) with men and Burke was up 54/40 with women. Crazy swings, if true.

The last poll seemed like more of an outlier though, IMO.
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mypalfish
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 01:43:51 PM »

This sample also shows Obama's approval in WI at 47/49, when the previous poll was 42/53.  

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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2014, 02:10:29 PM »

So when LVs showed Burke leading and RVs showed Walker leading, everyone said RVs were better. Then when LVs showed Walker doing better than RVs, everyone conveniently forgot about that observation. Now that RVs show Walker doing better again, will this Republican talking point be resurrected?
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mypalfish
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2014, 03:58:31 PM »

So when LVs showed Burke leading and RVs showed Walker leading, everyone said RVs were better. Then when LVs showed Walker doing better than RVs, everyone conveniently forgot about that observation. Now that RVs show Walker doing better again, will this Republican talking point be resurrected?

The Yougov poll that was out a week ago also showed a tied race among LV's with Walker ahead among RV's.

I will say that the main criticism from both sides of the aisle here in WI about the MU Poll is that sometimes they have a hard time nailing the proper LV screen.  The sample may be slightly Dem friendly for a midterm but not overly so.  The recall's exit poll showed a R +1 partisan turnout.

One big advantage Burke has is that her TV ad team is far stronger than Walker's.  She's up with a new ad every 5-7 days and the Gov has had only a single spot that really worked, which was the footage of Burke going "um, um, um" trying to define plagiarism. 

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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2014, 04:16:44 PM »

If only WI was not on a midterm cycle.

Turnout...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2014, 10:33:07 PM »

Oh wow, this is gonna be a fun one to watch on election night.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2014, 12:59:58 AM »

To those looking into the cross tabs and wondering what exactly Wisconsin's media markets are, this map should help.

City of Milwaukee: Burke 76-21
Madison Media Market: Burke 59-32
Milwaukee Media Market (minus City of Milwaukee): Walker 53-40
Green Bay Media Market: Walker 58-39
Remaining Media Markets: Walker 51-46


Is it correct to say that Walker is underperforming in the Milwaukee suburbs?

You could say that, but its also important to note that there are some Dem friendly areas in the Milwaukee Media Market, outside of the city, like the cities of Kenosha and Racine, plus some of the inner suburbs (Glendale, Whitefish Bay, Shorewood, Bayfield, St. Francis, Cudhay).
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2014, 01:02:51 PM »

Milwaukee Media Market (minus City of Milwaukee): Walker 53-40

What's the deal? This is abnormally low for a Republican in this market.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2014, 03:22:39 PM »

This poll is sort of weird. RV's are more R than LV's, which could mean the Madison crowd is fired up. And, the gender gap is mysteriously small, wheras it was unbelievably huge last time. We'll need more polls on this race.
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Chance92
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2014, 03:24:30 PM »

I get the feeling this is going to be the horse race of the night.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2014, 03:52:06 PM »

Milwaukee Media Market (minus City of Milwaukee): Walker 53-40

What's the deal? This is abnormally low for a Republican in this market.

Yeah, just did some calculations and that number is closer to what Obama got in 2012 in that market.
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2014, 04:23:52 PM »

Milwaukee Media Market (minus City of Milwaukee): Walker 53-40

What's the deal? This is abnormally low for a Republican in this market.

Yeah, just did some calculations and that number is closer to what Obama got in 2012 in that market.

From DRA, Obama in '08 lost the the Milwaukee market (minue the city itself) 46/53. The average is 63/37 R though.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2014, 02:10:07 PM »

The Midwest needs to stop having such competitive Gubernatorial races, or at least pick one or two states every cycle. I can't pay attention to this many states at once.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2014, 02:17:09 PM »

The Midwest needs to stop having such competitive Gubernatorial races, or at least pick one or two states every cycle. I can't pay attention to this many states at once.

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2014, 02:33:35 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2014, 03:21:28 AM by Dave Leip »

New Poll: Wisconsin Governor by Marquette Law School on 2014-10-12

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2014, 02:40:57 AM »

Wait, it's the Republicans who suffer from the enthusiasm gap?
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njwes
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2014, 11:18:32 AM »

If only WI was not on a midterm cycle.

Turnout...

Eh I mean, in the 2012 recall election turnout was 57.8%--pretty good--and Walker got 53.1%
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