GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 (user search)
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Author Topic: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3  (Read 5282 times)
Bacon King
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Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« on: October 15, 2014, 02:38:12 PM »

Here are the crosstabs.

Crosstabs by gender: 51/49 female. Should be 55/45 female. Net effect is 1 point in under/over-representation for Democratic and Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by race: 61% white, 27% black, 7% latino, 5% asian. Should be more like 63% white, 28% black, 8% latino, 1% asian. Whites and Asians lean more Republican; Blacks and Latinos lean more Democratic. Net effect is 2.5 points in terms of under/over-representation for Democratic & Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by region: I've never known what exactly defines the SUSA poll regions. They have three: "Northwest", "Atlanta", and "South and East", each of which comprise about 1/3 of their polling sizes. Any definition of "Northwest", however, shouldn't be close to being competitive, but this poll has it 48/40 Deal and 48/42 Perdue. Based on past SUSA polls, it would seem that the movement toward Dems in these polls is predominantly coming from here - they're actually polling better in the northern part of the state outside of Atlanta than in the southern part, which seems strange. Still, I don't know what their exact boundaries are and so I can't be sure about any skewing here.

All in all, I don't think this poll has a Democratic bias - unless those regions are skewed more than I can tell - and may even be slightly favorable as a whole to the Republicans.

Purple heart your analysis adam

here's SUSA's regions btw:

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029.htm

Northwest Georgia is so big that apparently even I live there
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 03:08:30 PM »

Here are SUSA's GA regions; for future reference I'll put some demographic info on them in the megathread

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