KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.

[Torie]

Hi there px. You know, I don't make too many predictions (as to the forumites who do that incessantly, I tend to view that more a function of the enthusiasm of youth, and well, predictions is the essence of the site, so I don't mind it much but whatever), particularly when they are against the grain (a fool's errand really). When I do, there is a certain reasoning behind it. I judged Orman more or less just another pretty face, with not much there behind it, as he attempted his little tight wire aerial act. The odds were he was going to fall off. Unlike Orman, I like to think that I am not entirely just another pretty face you know. Have a nice day.

But look at the upside, px. Given my doubling down here, if the winds shift and Orman wins, you will savor it all the more. Cheers.

[Torie]

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?

Of course it is in this context. The slope up when where one is tends to increase as you close the gap. That is of course related to fundamentals. Booker in NJ has lost a ton of points in lead, a rather steep decline. Will he lose based on extrapolations? Of course not. Now Virginia, where the same thing is happening, with different fundamentals, is a tad more interesting.