KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3. (user search)
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  KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3. (search mode)
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Author Topic: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.  (Read 4051 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« on: October 13, 2014, 03:45:59 PM »
Quote from: Lief on October 13, 2014, 03:07:51 PM
Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 03:47:12 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on October 13, 2014, 03:12:51 PM
Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 04:02:32 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 13, 2014, 03:59:38 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 13, 2014, 03:45:59 PM
Quote from: Lief on October 13, 2014, 03:07:51 PM
Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread

Iowa is SUPPOSED to be competitive, it's a purple state. Plus there's no incumbent. It would be comparable if Democrats were cheering that Chris Coons was "only trailing" Kevin Wade by 3 points.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 09:27:24 PM »
Quote from: All In For KC on October 13, 2014, 08:52:18 PM
Sample is slightly friendly to Democrats IMO

Why do you say that?
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 10:14:37 PM »
Quote from: Pessimistic  Antineutrino on October 13, 2014, 10:06:31 PM
Quote from: KCDem on October 13, 2014, 09:32:38 PM
Quote from: All In For KC on October 13, 2014, 09:30:13 PM
Romney vs. Obama '12 numbers. I think that turnout will be relatively similar to 2012 as Democrats are overall more enthused, but I doubt it'll be more friendly to Democrats.

Just a small difference - might shift numbers by a point if that.

Obama won 38% of the vote in the sample...the same as in 2012.

And Romney won 54% of the vote in the sample, while he won close to 60% in 2012.

It's a pretty consistent trend in PPP polls that "someone else/don't remember" are almost always Romney voters.
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