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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  73% of moderates - a future necessity for democrats?
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Author Topic: 73% of moderates - a future necessity for democrats?  (Read 1889 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: October 11, 2014, 05:16:11 pm »

I've read that the breakdown is usually going to be 42% Conservative 37% Moderate and 21% Liberal. Assuming dems win liberals 90-10 and lose conservatives 90-10, wouldn't math dictate dems need to win 73% of moderates?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2014, 05:25:10 pm »

Where are you getting these numbers from? These were the breakdowns in 2012:

Liberals (25%): 86-11 Obama
Moderates (40%): 56-41 Obama
Conservatives (35%): 82-17 Romney

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Voter_demographics
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2014, 05:55:46 pm »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2014, 06:07:16 pm »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

Do you consider me a liberal?
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2014, 06:10:12 pm »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

Not this one. Tongue
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Vega
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2014, 06:11:08 pm »

"Moderate" is a very subjective term.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2014, 06:13:47 pm »
« Edited: October 11, 2014, 06:15:24 pm by Clarko95 »

Where are you getting these numbers from? These were the breakdowns in 2012:

Liberals (25%): 86-11 Obama
Moderates (40%): 56-41 Obama
Conservatives (35%): 82-17 Romney

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Voter_demographics
Also notice how Obama won ~20% of Conservatives in 2008 and 2012. This is partially because a lot of black voters identify as conservative (primarily on cultural issues) but still vote Democrat.

Additionally, the number of self-identified moderates has dropped from 50% in 2000 as the number of liberals and conservatives rise. That's a combination of a greater focus on base turnout starting in 2004, as well as more people being honest about their true ideology.

The opposite is true for people calling themselves independents and Republicans; the GOP has become so embarrassing that many call themselves independent while still voting Republican, which is why Romney won the indy vote but still lost the election.
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2014, 07:31:52 pm »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

It's the opposite in the south.

Meh, I wouldn't say that based on my experience. Usually it's:

moderate = Democrat (60%)
independent = Republican (70%)
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Wherever you want to go, you can't go there!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2014, 08:10:06 pm »

You think that a lot of "Moderates" and "Independents" are really partisans trying to move the center in their direction. "I'm moderate. You're just unreasonably conservative or. "I'm Independent. You're a Democrat hack." Though I imagine that "Independent" could simply be that you think the out-party represents your values but are too incompetent to be a member of.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2014, 10:16:08 pm »

There's a difference between being an independent because you think both parties have good and bad aspects and you aren't wedded to either one, and being an independent because you completely despise one party and think the other party isn't far enough to the right/left to be acceptable to you.

But being a moderate basically only allows for the former, not the latter.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 11:05:02 am »

"Moderate" is a very subjective term.

Yeah, and it depends very much on specific issues. Am I a liberal or a moderate when I consider myself as a fiscal conservative, but progressive on social issues?
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 08:58:59 pm »

"Moderate" is a very subjective term.

Yeah, and it depends very much on specific issues. Am I a liberal or a moderate when I consider myself as a fiscal conservative, but progressive on social issues?

I guess whatever you want to believe you are, but heck, I'd say that seems undeniably more "moderate" than "liberal."  In your own words, you described an ideology that contains half conservatism.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 09:00:27 pm »

Moderate is a subjective term based on one's political leanings.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2014, 07:30:08 pm »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

It's the opposite in the south.

Meh, I wouldn't say that based on my experience. Usually it's:

moderate = Democrat (60%)
independent = Republican (70%)
Um, no? Moderates voted 56% - 41% for Obama, and Independents voted 50% - 45% for Romney. Check out the link IceSpear just posted.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2014, 09:48:11 pm »

FWIW, WaPo had an article out today saying that Democrat need to win 65% of moderates to keep the Senate.

As Griffin said, moderates skew Democratic, vis-ŕ-vis 'Independents', so it's not totally out of the question.
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2014, 11:40:57 am »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

It's the opposite in the south.

Meh, I wouldn't say that based on my experience. Usually it's:

moderate = Democrat (60%)
independent = Republican (70%)
Um, no? Moderates voted 56% - 41% for Obama, and Independents voted 50% - 45% for Romney. Check out the link IceSpear just posted.

Um, yes? I was referring to the leans in the South (more particularly, places like my home state) - not the national averages - since someone brought up that particular group.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2014, 10:37:35 pm »

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

It's the opposite in the south.

Meh, I wouldn't say that based on my experience. Usually it's:

moderate = Democrat (60%)
independent = Republican (70%)
Um, no? Moderates voted 56% - 41% for Obama, and Independents voted 50% - 45% for Romney. Check out the link IceSpear just posted.

Um, yes? I was referring to the leans in the South (more particularly, places like my home state) - not the national averages - since someone brought up that particular group.
Oh, whoops. But where do those numbers come from?
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