Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO

[IceSpear]

AR/KY/AK look about right.

As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys.

[IceSpear]

AR/KY/AK look about right.

As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys.

Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too.

Yes, but Ras/PPP/Suffolk all give him up a 1/2 point lead, not a 6 point lead.

[IceSpear]

AR/KY/AK look about right.

As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys.

Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too.

Yes, but Ras/PPP/Suffolk all give him up a 1/2 point lead, not a 6 point lead.

And Q gives him an eight-point lead. Fox News merely splits the difference.

But if you're going to go back that far (nearly a month ago), there's also Marist/SUSA which showed Udall up 6/4 points and were only a week before Quinnipiac's poll.

[IceSpear]

Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll.

Yeah, I'm sure the Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research who is part of the bipartisan duo that polls for Fox News is allowing Fox News to play games with polls by not reporting undecideds.  After all, they have no incentive to show the Democratic candidates up.

You just can't take polls that show your candidates down at face value, can you?

Well let's not forget that Alan Colmes and Pat Caddell are some examples of "FOX News Democrats". It really depends whether or not Anderson Robbins Research is in that mold of eunuch Democrats or not.

And he brought up a good point, that FOX's previous Louisiana poll has now been shown to be complete bogus.

[IceSpear]

Spot the outlier!


RCP Average   9/13 - 10/7   --   --   44.8   43.5   Gardner +1.3
FOX News   10/4 - 10/7   739 LV   3.5   43   37   Gardner +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov   9/20 - 10/1   1634 LV   3.0   45   48   Udall +3
Rasmussen Reports   9/29 - 9/30   950 LV   3.0   48   47   Gardner +1
USA Today/Suffolk*   9/13 - 9/16   500 LV   4.4   43   42   Gardner +1
Quinnipiac*   9/10 - 9/15   1211 LV   2.8   48   40   Gardner +8

FOX, YouGov, and Quinnipiac. That was easy.

In fact, Udall +3 is actually closer to the average than Gardner +6 or Gardner +8 is. Median is Gardner +1 as well, Gardner +1.5 if you count the PPP poll that RCP doesn't list.

[IceSpear]

FiveThirtyEight wrote an article about these polls:

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-dont-go-crazy/

[IceSpear]

The one thing I do like about this is that while I'm unsure Roberts is up by this much, the sampling stayed almost the same yet Roberts improved by this much. Republicans are coming home to Roberts - the "big guns" coming to the state seems to be working. This is why I'm feeling more and more confident that he wins on Election Day.

I already feel credulous for having taken Orman's leads at face value. I suspect that Roberts (and Brownback, for that matter) will be consistently ahead come the end of October. I also suspect that Phil will gloat that his stopped watch gave the correct time twice in the same day.

Why is FOX any more credible than the consensus of the other pollsters?

[IceSpear]

LOLFOX. Looks like it's best to ignore them from now on. Their "news" seems to be seeping into their polling.