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March 03, 2021, 10:20:43 AM

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  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  MA-Emerson College/WGBH: Baker+6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA-Emerson College/WGBH: Baker+6  (Read 1573 times)
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
United States

« on: October 08, 2014, 11:14:08 PM »

Go away, shoo!

Seriously, this poll, which seems to have something like a 4 pt margin of error, means that there is a 95% chance that Baker's score falls between 41 and 49, and a 95% chance that Coakley's score falls between 35 and 43.

The race is probably somewhere like Baker 43, Coakley 42 at this point. So I'm not saying this poll is any good, but it is in the range of this supposed reality, just as the other poll showing Coakley at 41-39, with a 4.4 margin of error, which means Coakley with 95% between 36.6 and 45.4 and Baker with 95% between 34.6 and 43.4.

Don't forget margins of error when reacting to polls. Variations in one poll often mean very little. One poll that seems to be an outlier could still very well be in the range of probability.

The appreciation you make about the state of the race stays entirely yours, of course, but not the reality of what the poll actually says, according to the mathematical rules of statistics and probability.

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