SEA (D) in FL HD-36: Crist by 8

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  SEA (D) in FL HD-36: Crist by 8
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Author Topic: SEA (D) in FL HD-36: Crist by 8  (Read 457 times)
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« on: October 08, 2014, 05:36:41 PM »

Internal poll of LVs in FL's HD-36, conducted October 6-7 by SEA Polling & Strategic Design (D), a Florida firm that conducts some polling for the state party, including accurately predicting Amanda Murphy's win in the 2013 special in the district.

Crist: 45% (+7)
Scott: 37% (-6)
Wyllie: 14% (+4)

They also conducted a poll in August of the district - change from August in parenthesis. It's an internal and full crosstabs haven't been released, but Crist leads among 65+ by 8% and women by 19%. He also gets close to 25% among Republicans, while Scott's at 13% with Dems. Obama's at 42/52, Crist at 43/48, and Scott at 36/56. Duke Energy is also at 17/65, giving credit to Crist's attempts to tie Scott to Duke.

HD-36 is in west Pasco, currently represented by a Democrat in the State House after a long period of Republican representation. It's largely working class and retirees, and is a pretty accurate bellwether - it narrowly went for Obama twice, and went for Scott narrowly in 2010. Local tax collector Mike Fasano is at 63/5 approvals and his endorsement of Crist may be having an outsized impact in this district, but HD36 is still very much reflective of the overall Florida electorate and the pollster's fairly credible.
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