SHOCK POLL: ROUNDS' LEAD DOWN TO 3%, PRESSLER SURGING SAYS SUSA

[Badger]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Source?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Source?

http://www.argusleader.com/story/davidmontgomery/2014/10/08/senate-blood-in-water/16933251/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Weiland could be persuaded to drop out, he would've been persuaded not to run when Herseth-Sandlin was still considering running.  I imagine that (although the state is rarely able to resist the chance to vote against him and/or the candidates he endorses ) Daschle is more or less the closest thing to the boss of South Dakota Democratic Party and certainly the only person who would have any chance of convincing Weiland to drop out.  At the very least, he holds has an enormous amount of influence over the state party and has already made it clear when the DSCC was trying to recruit Herseth-Sandlin that he'd rather the party nominate his protege and go on to lose the race in a landslide then nominate a stronger Democratic candidate who could actually win (even if it cost Democrats control of the Senate).  If that was how Daschle acted when Weiland was being pressured to defer to a much more electable Democrat, I can't imagine he'd pressure Weiland to drop out and endorse an Independent who used to be a Republican Senator and had a long-running feud with Daschle's political mentor. 

TL;DR version: Daschle's the only one who could get Weiland to drop out and if he was willing to help torpedo the DSCC's efforts to recruit Herseth-Sandlin when Weiland was trailing by like 20%, there's no way he'll make Weiland drop out and endorse Pressler when Weiland is trailing about 7%.  If anything, he'll urge Weiland to stay in the race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It would be absurd for the candidate who has real money and runs a real campaign to drop out in favor of someone who has neither.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would be absurd for the candidate who has real money and runs a real campaign to drop out in favor of someone who has neither.

That makes Weiland look even worse   What does it say about Weiland if he has "real money" and is running a "real campaign" (I'm pretty sure Pressler is too, but whatever) and yet people are still flocking to the person who, according to you, has neither.  It sounds to me like Weiland has every advantage over Pressler and yet he's such a weak candidate that all he's managing to do is potentially play spoiler for what would otherwise be a safe Democratic hold in everything but name.  On the other hand, if Pressler has surged into second place and is only down by about 3% with a little over three weeks left until the election despite having almost no money and little in the way of campaign infrastructure, imagine how much more he'd be able to do if he had the money and infrastructure that Weiland seems to have squandered  

More importantly, the SurveyUSA poll showed that a Weiland-Rounds head-to-head leaving both candidates tied with 47% while Pressler led 54-39% when he was placed in a head-to-head with Rounds.  Clearly Pressler is the stronger candidate and has a far better chance of winning than Weiland does in the race as it stands right now.  If Pressler drops out, it becomes a tossup in a state where a majority of the undecideds will probably back the Republican.  If Weiland drops out, it becomes a safe Democratic hold in everything but name (and we get a Senator from South Dakota who is more liberal than most of the Senate Democratic caucus).  This isn't complicated

[Miles]

Pressler lists DC as his main residence.

[The Other Castro]

Pressler lists DC as his main residence.

wow I've been living next door to him this whole time and never knew

[Andrew1]

This is a really difficult situation. It will be horrible for Democrats to see Rounds win with something like 35%. Even if Pressler could drop out, Weiland would probably struggle to win a head-to-head with Rounds.

Pressler as the Independent clearly has more crossover appeal, and in theory should be able to win a straight fight with Rounds. But he has no money, has been running a weird campaign, and promising to be "Obama's friend" is probably the kiss of death for his campaign.

Weiland is clearly not dropping out, and Democratic groups are getting more strongly behind him. I just can't see how Weiland or Pressler can get the upper hand here. Rounds can coast to an unimpressive minority win. A missed opportunity.

[Badger]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Source?

http://www.argusleader.com/story/davidmontgomery/2014/10/08/senate-blood-in-water/16933251/

Thanks!

Though behind the scenes I'd imagine things are not so set in stone.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Source?

http://www.argusleader.com/story/davidmontgomery/2014/10/08/senate-blood-in-water/16933251/

Thanks!

Though behind the scenes I'd imagine things are not so set in stone.

Pressler now has a residency problem. Weiland isn't budging, my friend.

[Badger]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Source?

http://www.argusleader.com/story/davidmontgomery/2014/10/08/senate-blood-in-water/16933251/

Thanks!

Though behind the scenes I'd imagine things are not so set in stone.

Pressler now has a residency problem. Weiland isn't budging, my friend.

Yeah, I read that after posting. If I had to bet I'd say this probably goes to a three way race till the end, but a lot depends on the next week or so. If either challenger pulls ahead there's going to be even more pressure for the lagging one to drop out. It's just not set in stone yet, and as someone noted there are a ton of calls coming from every direction now.

[Simfan34]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

I'd get on board.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm telling you guys, Independents in Red States is going to be a revolution if the DSCC backs it going forward.

But will Republicans try the same in Blue States?

Republicans could never convince the too-conservative Republican nominee to dropout.

What a coincidence because Weiland isn't dropping out either.

Source?

http://www.argusleader.com/story/davidmontgomery/2014/10/08/senate-blood-in-water/16933251/

Thanks!

Though behind the scenes I'd imagine things are not so set in stone.

Pressler now has a residency problem. Weiland isn't budging, my friend.

Yeah, I read that after posting. If I had to bet I'd say this probably goes to a three way race till the end, but a lot depends on the next week or so. If either challenger pulls ahead there's going to be even more pressure for the lagging one to drop out. It's just not set in stone yet, and as someone noted there are a ton of calls coming from every direction now.

When it comes to dropping out, it doesn't help the Dems that Weiland is true believer and as someone that is actually running as an unabashed liberal, I don't think he's particularly fond of the idea of stepping aside for a former Republican Senator. True, Pressler is now definitely more moderate and he likes Obama but I don't think that's enough for Weiland.

[New_Conservative]

Only the Republican Party can blow such a big lead in such a Conservative state.