Small Island Developing States Elections: Trinidad and Tobago on September 7

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SIDS is the (rather unfortunate) acronym for small island states in the areas formerly known as the Third World. Some of them, like Tonga and São Tomé and Príncipe, are interesting enough to do separate threads on (or maybe São Tomé isn't, but we will see), but many of them are not and we will have limited info, so it will be a matter of discussing results and any interesting oddities etc. So this thread is for elections in low info/low interest SIDS.

We will have one of those in the rump of this year: Solomon Islands in the Pacific on 19/11.

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The Solomon Islands in Melanesia - of WW2 fame (can anyone  guess what Iron Bottom Sound is named for?) and lately a wee civil war in the early 2000s the Aussies had to stop - will - reportedly - be holding an election to the 50 seat National Parliament using FPTP on October 29 or November 19 (more likely the second since Solomon Times don’t write more about the election.
 A third of those elected last time were independents and there is little useful info from an electoral commission, but it is a fascinating place and presumably Solomon Times and some of the pacific net forums will write some about this. Six parties approved so far:  

People’s Progressive Party is the party founded by Solomon Mamaloni, Chief Minister in the last colonial years and Prime Minister three times in the 80s and 90s before stepping down in 1997 - known as "the architect of the Solomon’s independence". It is generally  in favour of more modernisation of Solomonese society than most parties. To call it leftist or liberal would be a stretch, but the least conservative option.

United Democratic Party is a fusion of the supporters of the two Prime Minister candidates in 2010. Steve Abanas Democratic Party, which was the biggest last time with 13 seats, and the Democratic Reform Party which was behind his rival Danny Phillip. Current Premier Gordon Darcy Lilo is probably running for them.

People’s Alliance Party is the oldest party founded in 1977 and the party of Allan Kemakeza, PM 2001-06.

Others: Kadere Party, National Transformation Party, Pan-Melanesian Congress Party.

Solomonese parties are small and/or loose coalitions that tend to break up easily. Last time the SoCon and traditionalist and enviromentalist Democratic Party got 13 seat, but couldnt get a majority and fractured in opposition and at least 3/4 of its members - including its leader - then joined the government bloc. No other party got more than 3 seats.

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At least 26 women to run in the Solomon Islands parliamentary election on November 19, which is the highest number ever. Only two women has ever been elected to the National Assembly in the strongly patriarchal and traditionalist Solomons.

http://www.solomontimes.com/news/ncw-supports-26-women-in-upcoming-elections/8290

Background:
http://www.solomontimes.com/tv/17

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The Comoros will be election a new President in two rounds on November 2 & 16.

Actually, the Comorian presidential election will be held in principle in 2016. The elections planned to be held on November 2 and 16 are the elections for the National Assembly, the three Islands' Councils and the newly created communes (municipalities). However, these elections were first postponed by President Dhoinine to 28 December and 1st February. However, after an application submitted by an opposition party, the Independent National Electoral Commission further postponed the elections to a later date (presumably March 2015 if not later). According to the Electoral Commission, the presidential decree that firstly postponed the election day was illegal as the electoral roll should be completed 90 days before the election day.

Some observers have already questioned the holding of the communal elections as the borders of several communes have not yet been fixed. Questions about the funding of the new communes have also been raised. The national government has already problems to finance its own activities; quite tellingly, the elections will be paid by various international organizations and foreign countries.

Well, it's just a Wiki info (someone made an article about it), they cite http://www.electionguide.org/elections/as source, but they haven't got it on their list anymore - but they do have an Assembly election on 28 December 2014 listed (which your article says is postponed).

What is your source for the info on the Presidential election? Also: since the last Presidential election was in 2010 (and the previous in 2006), what is the story behind this unusually long 6 year term? (who extended it? the President?).

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The Solomon Islands will get a new head of government as Prime Minister Gordon Darcy Lilo lost his seat in the election.

http://www.solomonstarnews.com/news/national/4997-caretaker-pm-unseated-in-major-election-upset

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I don't know if this thread covers it, but I'll ask anyway.

What's up with the Marshall Islands? They have a democracy, right? What precisely is the U.S.'s relationship with them?

Its not election related, so its not really the right thread, but they have a so-called Compact of Free Association where the US is responsible for defence and they can live and work in the US. There are also some economic and technical aid programs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_of_Free_Association

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32 of the 50 MPs in the new parliament in th Solomon Islands are independents. Only one woman got in.

The recently passed Political Parties Integrity Act dictates, that independent members can not form the next government without joining any of the registered political parties (and staying in them..)
recognised under the act, so it will be regular horsetrading and the parties will have to dig deep to attract independents.

Six parties got in - half of the 12 trying.

Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) 7
United Democratic Party (UDP) 5
People’s Alliance Party (PAP) 3
Solomon Islands Party for Rurall Advancement (SIPRA) 1
Kadere Party of Solomon Islands (KPSI) 1
People First Party (PFP) 1

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The High Court in the Solomons has ruled that only registered parties can form governing coalitions, but some independents have appealed the decision, claiming it is their constitutional right to nominate a candidate.

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Four parties have agreed to form a coalition:

Solomon Islands Party for Rural Advancement (SIPRA)
Democratic Alliance Party (DAP)
People First Party (PFP)  
People's Alliance Party (PAP)

The agreement will be submitted to the Political Parties Commission – with the coalition to be called the Solomon Islands People's Democratic Coalition.

As usual many independents join the winning side and of last night, more than 30 MPs have joined the coalition.

Governor General Sir Frank Kabui will call Parliament for the election of a prime minister next week.

Its part of the deal that Lilo steps down as SIPRA leader to become Speaker of parliament (which is weird because he lost his seat, but apparently it doesn't have to be an MP), but the new PM has not been announced. Only that it will be someone from Malaita to keep the internal balance (Lilo is from Guadalcanal) and "a surprise".

http://www.solomonstarnews.com/news/national/5138-new-government-formed

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Former PM Mannaseh Songavara from UDP has assembled a coalition that claims to have a narrow 26 seat majority after PAP and some independents have switched side, this is - in principle - impossible under the new Political Parties Integrity Act, but it will be difficult to prevent because independents can not really be punished for breaking the act and small parties only need to pass a party resolution to leave a coalition. The issue is if they can then join a new one... Its going to be interesting if the Political Parties Commission can hold PAP and the indies to their word (or rather signature..) because this is exactly the kind of behaviour the Political Parties Integrity Act was designed to prevent.

The PAP president wanted his party to stay in the coalition, but the three member parliamentary group decided to leave (large sums of money have almost certainly changed hands...).

KP has failed to be approved as a party group by the commission (dunno why), so there are only five parties that can form a government and most indies have joined one of them.

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The PM will be elected on December 9. The nominations for Prime Minister has opened this morning and will close at 4:00pm on Friday local time.

Candidates need to be nominated by four other MPs and no MP may nominate more than one candidate, but it looks like it will only be between the two coalitions, still surprises are bound to happen, this is the Solomons after all.

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Dominica in the Caribbean is holding a parliamentary election on December 8.

They country's 72.000 inhabitants share and island of 751km2.Three of quarters are  black, 19% mixed, race (mostly Mulatto, but some Indian blood as well), unusually for the Caribean Dominica has a 4% Amerindian population, that has survived in the steep parts of the island, 0.8% Whites and 1% Other,

21 seats are elected using FPTP and they then either elect or let the Prime Minister appoint 9 additional members  (5 from the government and 4 from the opposition if appointed) + elect an external Speaker and the Attorney General is also an ex officio MP, so 32 all in all,

The Social Democratic Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in power since 2000, from 2004 led by Roosevelt Skerrit (42), they got 61,2% and 18 seats last time, where they defeated the revolutionary sounding, but de facto moderate centre-right United Workers' Party, which got 34.9% and 3 seats.
 
The conservative Dominica Freedom Party used to have some strength, but only got 2.4% in 2009 and wont field candidates this time. So a pure two party system now.

DLP is fairly left leaning and Dominica is a member of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of the Americas ( ALBA) and the Venezuela led oil initiative PetroCaribe.

Skerrit has accused opposition leader Lennox Linton from UWP of being financed by drug cartels and Linton claims Skerrit is corrupt, so no love lost between them.

The economy is good and the government has reduced the national debt from 110% of GDP to 65% in the last term and severed the last ties to London by ditching the Privy Council for the new Trinidad based Caribbean appeal court.

Two indies running. One of them is Cabral Douglass, a son of former DLP premier Roosevelt Douglass.

No polling. DLP won an outright majority in 2005 and improved their margin in 2009.

http://www.caribbeanelections.com/blog/?cat=919

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHVRw3ob8es#t=21

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89.93% of all registered voters on there Solomons voted, that's pretty impressive. Its up from just 52,4% in 2010, but that does not take into account the large number of multiple registrations and deceased persons that were on the roll prior to the introduction of Biometric Voter Registration. Still, the number would have been significantly lower.
The election commission estimates 85% of eligible voters were registered, so 76,5% of eligible voters based on that (which is of course not 100% accurate). BMV has been a huge success, it seems really to have motivated people that it would genuinely be "one person, one vote" this time.

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The race to become the next Premier of the Solomon Islands is down to two guys: Former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Jeremiah Manele from the Hongrano/Kia/Havulei constituency in Isabel province.

Sogavare is representing the Democratic Coalition for Change (DCC), which consists mostly of former opposition members. He claims to have a majority of 27 behind him and sees his people as the representatives of rural anti-Honiara interests.

Manele is a former diplomat and long serving civil servant, but a first term MP. He represents the Solomon Islands People's Democratic Coalition (SIPDC), dominated by MPs from the outgoing Lilo led government. He has previously served as secretary to two former prime ministers: Dr Derek Sikua and Danny Philip and was permanent secretary in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs + the Ministry of Development Planning and Aid Coordination, before resigning to contest the polls, where he unseated two-term MP Selwyn Riumana. He is also a former ambassador to the US. Interesting guy and a representative of the well educated elite, but at the same time with roots outside of the two main islands. I think the Solomons could use a technocrat as Premier in the present stage of its development and his ties to Isabel means he will balance the Malataian dominance. People on Isabel have a  reputation as meek and "soft" in the Solomons and they don't produce many politicians, but no info on whether Manele fits this stereotype (probably not..).

It looks like the new procedure for government formation works in the sense that it has produced two recognizable coalitions with some coherence.

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As a center-left Democrat from the U.S., who should I be rooting for in the Premier race?

Well given that it is coalitions of clientilistic networks and regional clan-based groups its not possible to break it down along ideological lines.

I will root for Manele because he is well educated, has international experience and contacts and isn't from either Malaita or Guadalcanal (where the capital is).

Sogavare has already been Premier twice and while he hasn't been a disaster IMO, he hasn't been that good either. He is from Choiseul, so also a third islander, but he was Premier in the Civil War era and they need new blood to close the scars from that era. He also expelled the Australian High Commissioner while in office and is generally seen as anti-Australian (the Aussies intervened to stop the civil war).

The civil war that almost destroyed the islands 15 years ago was between the Malaitans (who are the most business savy and "pushy"), who had settled in the capitol on Guadalcanal and the local Guales on Guadalcanal. Today the Malaitans totally dominate Honiara. Having a Premier from a third group will be a definite advantage for the Solomons. Both guys qualify on paper, but it looks like Manele has the ethnically broadest coalition.

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This may be too nerdy even for Atlas, but if you are interested, there should be live results from Dominica here:

http://sundominica.com/articles/who-wins-who-loses-1900/

It is 18.15 in Dominica now, and polls close at 5PM local time and a result will be published no later than 10PM - according to the local press.

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In Portsmouth independent Cabral Douglass is facing his cousin Minister of Finance Ian Douglass. Cabral is son of one of Dominica's most beloved politicians radical black nationalist firebrand Roosevelt "Rosie" Douglass, who led DLP from 1992-2000. He represented Portsmouth for his entire career and died after just 8 months in office in 2000. Ian Douglass dad, Michael Douglass, was chairman of DLP before Rosie Douglass.

Fun fact: Roosevelt Douglass dad named five of his sons after statesmen. Four of his brothers were called Eisenhoewer, Churchill, Truman and Adenauer, but there were 16 children, so I guess they ran out of names before Michael was born.

Rosie Douglass was jailed for 18 months in Canada following the smashing of some university computers during a black power protest in 1969, and subsequently deported. He swore he would return as his country's Prime Minister one day and actually made it.. kinda cool.

Cabral is challenging his cousin from the left keeping up the radical socialist traditions of his father, so its interesting if he wins his dads old seat.

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There seems to be no connection between the numbers and the seats they are calling, that makes it a bit boring. One was called with the opponent ahead and one on 0% reported..

But 2-1 to DLP now.

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Barbados also has a Bolivarian vs. social democrat political system, I believe.

UWP is centre-right, despite the name. It was never Social Democratic. It was founded by disgruntled businessmen with basis in the local Rotary Club in 1988 to allow off-shore exploration and lower taxes. Also gave asylum to some dubious business types when in power.

DLP are still pretty standard SocDem in their policies, despite cooperating with Venezuela and getting some free stuf, like tablets to school children and help with harbour improvement.

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The second Indie Jerome Peter Lavashire is the VP for the Small Business Association, so not another left winger.

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Things seem to be even more complicated at the moment... This article says the leftists are dropping DLP and going to UWP because they feel it has betrayed its left wing roots.

"These influencers have since been sidelined by the party which has lost its soul and has become a hollow shadow of what it was meant to be ... And, in what some see as apostasy, those from the left are leaving in droves and are now throwing their support behind the UWP."

http://sundominica.com/articles/left-leaves-labour-1882/

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11-5

Ian Douglass beat his leftist cousin in Portsmouth. UWP lost again, but are already ahead of their 2009 result (3 seats). Both Lennox Linton and former UWP chairman Hector John are in.

EDIT: Lavashire also lost to a DLP guy, so no Indie MPs.

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Constituency map:

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14-5

UWP won 2 by-elections in 2010, so they just keep their seats. They won two urban/partly urban seats in Roseau in the south (central + north) and a rural belt across the lower northern part of the island (Salisbury, Marigot, Wesley).

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15-6

UWP also got Roseau South, so the whole urban area, down there.

So +1 to the opposition.