Singapore September 11th 2015 elections

[ag]

Latest.  A recount is now underway for Aljunied GRC.  It seems the results must be very very close.

WP holds Aljunied.

[ag]

The swings in PAP strongholds seems to be far larger than marginal seats.  It seems the sentiment is for PAP to win but a desire for opposition to have some token representation.

More like, general satisfaction: voters in opposition districts may be also  happy about their MPs. One should not give "centralized" explanations to such voter behavior: it is not as if some social planner decided to give opposition some token representation. Though, of course, this being Singapore, one always may suspect that, in fact, it is.

You are right of course.  Part of it is also the incumbency affect.    One of the reasons the PAP swing in ALJUNIED GRC is relatively small also could have to do with the relative satisfaction with the opposition MPs running for re-election.  Of course various anecdotal surveys of voters in ALJUNIED GRC during the campaign did have a theme of some desire for opposition presence in parliament even if from a cost-benefit point of view having a PAP list of MP might benefit the district more.

Remove incumbency effects, and it seems elections would be contested. One relatively bad election, and PAP would have hard time restoring its dominance. This is one reason their campaigns are so pathetically short: they do not want anything to happen between the declaration and election day. An accidentally lost district is a potentially long-term headache.

[jaichind]

Latest.  A recount is now underway for Aljunied GRC.  It seems the results must be very very close.

WP holds Aljunied.

Yep WP wins 51-49.  So the sample result was very accurate.

[jaichind]

The final PAP vote share ends up being a very large.  69.9%. From a vote share point of view they have exceeded their 2006 result. even as they failed in their goal of re-taking Aljunied GRC.  I suspect going forward if PAP cannot win back Aljunied GRC this election they will never win it back.

[jaichind]

Remove incumbency effects, and it seems elections would be contested. One relatively bad election, and PAP would have hard time restoring its dominance. This is one reason their campaigns are so pathetically short: they do not want anything to happen between the declaration and election day. An accidentally lost district is a potentially long-term headache.

One extreme example of incumbency effects is the Potong Pasir  seats.  For years it was held by opposition leader Chiam See Tongv (詹时中) first as a SDP MP and founder then as SPP when Chiam split SPP from SDP then as SDA when Chiam crated SDA as an alliance of parties.  In 2011 Chiam ran in another district to try to win it for SDA.  His wife ran in Potong Pasir in 2011 as SPP as SPP split from SDA and lost 50.4-49.6.  She just ran again in a rematch and lost by a mile 66.4-33.6.  Even adjusting for the pro-PAP swing of 6%-7% the scale of defeat was huge.  It is mostly because of incumbency affect.  Of course her PAP opponent ran against her husband several times and lost but he must created a political network through all those failed campaigns.

[jaichind]

It seems to me the reason why PAP got such a large positive swing from 2011 are

1) Better marco economic indicators as demonstrated by a lower misery index.
2) Sympathy factor for the death of Lee Kwan Yew
3) PAP beating its chest on its, to be fair, real accomplishments over the last 50 years as part of the 50th year anniversary of the independence of Singapore.
4) PAP shifted left since 2011 and co-opted the opposition.  PAP started as a leftist party, anti-communist but still leftist.  Then to stay in power it shifted right and now it is shifting left again.  Its only real agenda is being in power.  The opposition, running out of things to run on, shifting to an anti-immigration stance which might be a legitimate issue but was seen as desperate and opportunistic.  Also progressive and liberal elements in Singapore which mostly vote opposition was most likely turned off my and some of them voted PAP instead.

[2952-0-0]

So did the PAP really shift to the left to retain power, or are they stealing the Liberal Party of Canada's tried and tested method of campaigning on the left and governing as catch-all centrists?

[jaichind]

So did the PAP really shift to the left to retain power, or are they stealing the Liberal Party of Canada's tried and tested method of campaigning on the left and governing as catch-all centrists?

It is mostly for show plus a bunch of promises to shift left.  PAP instituted some taxes on luxury goods and promised to raise taxes on higher income individuals plus more social spending.  Whatever they end up doing with most likely fairly muted but they will be effective at making a lot of noises about and giving an impression that they are doing something about income inequity.   

[jaichind]

One interesting thing would be to compare the scale of this PAP landslide to previous PAP victories.  Clearly the PAP performance in 2015 outpaced its 2011 performance which was seen as its worst performance ever.   A good comparison would be the PAP 2006 election performance.    In 2006 PAP won 66.6% of the vote while PAP won 69.9% of the vote.  It is not an apples-to-apples comparison though.  This is because the opposition only contested 47 out of 84 seats in 2006.  Looking at the PAP performance in those seats that the opposition did not contest in 2006 but the opposition did contest in 2001 one can infer that had the opposition contested these 37 seats that the PAP would have won around 76% of the vote in those seats.    This implies that had the opposition contested all seats in 2006 like it did in 2015, the PAP would have won around 70.7%.  So overall the PAP performance in 2015 is around the same as PAP in 2006.  This is confirmed by looking at the districts that are consistent between 2006 and 2015 and was contested by the opposition overall the PAP performed roughly around the same in 2006 and 2015.

[jaichind]

This election ended up being the McGovern 1972 redux.  During the election campaign the opposition had massive and unprecedented attendance at rallies and dominated social media.  The PAP rallies were tiny by comparison.    But in the end the scale of the PAP victory indicated that they most have won the youth vote as well.

[ag]

So did the PAP really shift to the left to retain power, or are they stealing the Liberal Party of Canada's tried and tested method of campaigning on the left and governing as catch-all centrists?

PAP is a strange beast - like Singapore itself. The fact that Singapore is "business-friendly" is often misinterpreted to mean it is a free market place. In fact, it is almost a Soviet-style planned economy, with the government heavily interfering into even minute business and private decisions. In that sense, the regime has always been true to its socialist roots. So, how are you going to be defining "left" and "right" for Singapore?

[ag]

This election ended up being the McGovern 1972 redux.  During the election campaign the opposition had massive and unprecedented attendance at rallies and dominated social media.  The PAP rallies were tiny by comparison.    But in the end the scale of the PAP victory indicated that they most have won the youth vote as well.

It was a 9-day campaign. Political activity is nearly blocked outside the campaigining period. This, may, actually, account for the unusual strength of incumbent effects: at least the incumbents have a chance to be seen and heard. Vast majority of people never think of politics for long enough to think of voting for the opposition. Comparing it to anything in the US is meaningless.

I would agree with you, though, that basing its campaigning on anti-immigrant sentiment is self-destructive for the opposition. It turns off exactly the sort of people who they should attract.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the seat count right now?

[Simfan34]

WP narrowly held on to Aljunied. 50.95% or abouts. That's pretty much the only relevant statistic from this, besides the fact that the PAP increased its share by nearly 10%. The handover to the fourth generation begins.

[ag]

What's the seat count right now?

83:6. Besides PAP only WP got any seats.

This is, basically, the final count, except for NCMP. All 3 NCMPs are WP as well. Boring.

[2952-0-0]

PAP is a strange beast - like Singapore itself. The fact that Singapore is "business-friendly" is often misinterpreted to mean it is a free market place. In fact, it is almost a Soviet-style planned economy, with the government heavily interfering into even minute business and private decisions. In that sense, the regime has always been true to its socialist roots. So, how are you going to be defining "left" and "right" for Singapore?

That's rather like Hong Kong too. Hong Kong has never been, contrary to what libertarians keep claiming, a free market paradise. The government doesn't intervene with Soviet-style Five Year Plans, but its cozy relations with business tycoons means it does their bidding. It *does* throw bones when the proles get too uppity, like introducing a pitifully low minimum wage and regulating the price of basic food items.

Ironically, "leftist" in Hong Kong typically means "pro-China", which often means "pro-business tycoons"!

[ag]

PAP is a strange beast - like Singapore itself. The fact that Singapore is "business-friendly" is often misinterpreted to mean it is a free market place. In fact, it is almost a Soviet-style planned economy, with the government heavily interfering into even minute business and private decisions. In that sense, the regime has always been true to its socialist roots. So, how are you going to be defining "left" and "right" for Singapore?

That's rather like Hong Kong too. Hong Kong has never been, contrary to what libertarians keep claiming, a free market paradise. The government doesn't intervene with Soviet-style Five Year Plans, but its cozy relations with business tycoons means it does their bidding. It *does* throw bones when the proles get too uppity, like introducing a pitifully low minimum wage and regulating the price of basic food items.

Ironically, "leftist" in Hong Kong typically means "pro-China", which often means "pro-business tycoons"!

I believe Hong Kong is a lot less heavy-handed and controlled. It may be crony capitalism, but, at least, it is capitalism. Singapore, actually, is demonstrating that central planning does not need to lead to penury.

[2952-0-0]

I believe Hong Kong is a lot less heavy-handed and controlled. It may be crony capitalism, but, at least, it is capitalism. Singapore, actually, is demonstrating that central planning does not need to lead to penury.

Half of Hong Kong's population live in government subsidized housing of some sort. The other half pay the highest rents in the world. Even under British rule, the government still intervened when necessary. The Commies were always looking for opportunities to exploit grievances, after all. And, since the handover, intervention has markedly increased. Where else in the world, does the government own a majority stake in a Disney resort?

Sure, anti-government activists don't get sued on phony pretexts in Hong Kong, nor is the right to protest so regulated to be dead letter. But the place is Singaporizing in more subtle ways: the unfair electoral system was the proximate cause of last year's protests. Newspapers which criticize the government find it difficult to attract ads from conglomerates who are reluctant to upset Beijing. The leaders of many social organizations (universities, trade unions, etc) have been steadily replaced by those more friendly to the government. And I guarantee you that the students who led last year's protests will undergo a very difficult job search.

Unfortunately the bureaucracy's competence isn't Singaporizing.

[jaichind]

WP narrowly held on to Aljunied. 50.95% or abouts. That's pretty much the only relevant statistic from this, besides the fact that the PAP increased its share by nearly 10%. The handover to the third generation begins.

The PAP swing is actually more like 9.3% once we do an apples-to-apples comparison.  In 2011 the opposition did not contest Lee Kuan Yew's district (Tanjong Pagar GRC) but did contest it in 2015.  In 2011 PAP won 60.1% of valid valid votes and in 2015 PAP won 69.9% of valid votes.  But once we remove Tanjong Pagar GRC from the calculations the PAP won 69.4% of valid votes in 2015 so the swing is around 9.3%.

[warandwar]

PAP is a strange beast - like Singapore itself. The fact that Singapore is "business-friendly" is often misinterpreted to mean it is a free market place. In fact, it is almost a Soviet-style planned economy, with the government heavily interfering into even minute business and private decisions. In that sense, the regime has always been true to its socialist roots. So, how are you going to be defining "left" and "right" for Singapore?

That's rather like Hong Kong too. Hong Kong has never been, contrary to what libertarians keep claiming, a free market paradise. The government doesn't intervene with Soviet-style Five Year Plans, but its cozy relations with business tycoons means it does their bidding. It *does* throw bones when the proles get too uppity, like introducing a pitifully low minimum wage and regulating the price of basic food items.

Ironically, "leftist" in Hong Kong typically means "pro-China", which often means "pro-business tycoons"!

I don't think "leftist" in Hong Kong means "pro-China", usually