IA: Loras: Tied
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Author Topic: IA: Loras: Tied  (Read 2217 times)
Miles
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« on: October 06, 2014, 10:28:18 AM »

Report.

Ernst (R)- 42.4%
Braley (D)- 42.1%
Not sure- 11.8%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2014, 10:36:08 AM »

Notable that their last poll was Ernst+6.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2014, 10:37:48 AM »

Notable that their last poll was Ernst+6.

Actually it was Braley +4.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2014, 11:18:49 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Loras College on 2014-10-03

Summary: D: 42%, R: 42%, I: 4%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2014, 11:50:50 AM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2014, 11:54:44 AM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.
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chrisras
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2014, 11:55:45 AM »

Not good for Braley here.  He was +4 a month ago in this poll.  It shows how important candidate quality is.  This seat should have been an easy DEM hold.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2014, 11:55:50 AM »


Yes, I misquoted their poll from June instead of September.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2014, 11:56:14 AM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.

Ernst peaked a month too early though, her best days are already behind her.
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backtored
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2014, 12:07:25 PM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.

Exactly. Notice how Democrats are cheering ties and small leads in internals in the places where they once expected to win. There are at least a few places like that, and it says a lot about this election.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2014, 12:29:44 PM »

I wonder how this will affect 538s model. Do they count polls from the same source more than once?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2014, 12:55:32 PM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.

Perhaps, but definitely not enough of an advantage for a "lean R" rating (LOL SABATO).
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2014, 02:31:24 PM »

Ground game will win this race and considering that Ernst's support is probably about maxed out right now, Braley can win this on ground game. I've volunteered for phone banking before and lots of reliable Democrats will say they are undecided right up until election day, so it's just a matter of getting them out.
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JohnCA246
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2014, 02:57:27 PM »

Quote
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Vosem
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2014, 03:06:52 PM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.

Perhaps, but definitely not enough of an advantage for a "lean R" rating (LOL SABATO).

How is this race possibly anything other than 'Leans R'? It's clear to every dolt out there that Ernst is winning but that there is still some outside chance of Braley staging a comeback. It's the definition of Leans R.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2014, 03:11:42 PM »

Sabato rated CA-10 Lean Democratic in 2012, but that obviously was poor call. He's not the best at rating races.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2014, 03:13:34 PM »

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.

Perhaps, but definitely not enough of an advantage for a "lean R" rating (LOL SABATO).

How is this race possibly anything other than 'Leans R'? It's clear to every dolt out there that Ernst is winning but that there is still some outside chance of Braley staging a comeback. It's the definition of Leans R.

Ernst leads by 2 points in the polling aggregate.
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Vosem
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2014, 03:16:08 PM »

Sabato rated CA-10 Lean Democratic in 2012, but that obviously was poor call. He's not the best at rating races.

Sabato moves all Tossups to Leans one party or another a few days before the election; before that, CA-10 was ranked Tossup (which is what it was). It doesn't compare to ratings before the last week, when Sabato maintains a 'Tossup' category. Of course you'll look better when you just rate close races as 'Tossup's, but Sabato doesn't take the easy way out.

As you can see, Braley is not going down without some fight.

LOL @ the Ernst+8 polls.

Looks like these mid-terms are getting a little more blood again.

When Braley's best performances are statistical ties and Ernst's best performances are high single-digit leads, I think it is fair to say Ernst has a slight advantage.

Perhaps, but definitely not enough of an advantage for a "lean R" rating (LOL SABATO).

How is this race possibly anything other than 'Leans R'? It's clear to every dolt out there that Ernst is winning but that there is still some outside chance of Braley staging a comeback. It's the definition of Leans R.

Ernst leads by 2 points in the polling aggregate.

That's pretty meaningful when the polling aggregate is 8 different polls. It would be a tossup if it were just 3-4, but this race has been polled quite heavily, so we can say things more definitively from small leads in the average.
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