KY-SurveyUSA: Grimes takes the lead (FORUM exclusive news)
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  KY-SurveyUSA: Grimes takes the lead (FORUM exclusive news)
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Author Topic: KY-SurveyUSA: Grimes takes the lead (FORUM exclusive news)  (Read 4646 times)
Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2014, 11:38:29 AM »

Yeah... I'm going to need some confirmation on this before I believe it.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2014, 12:20:40 PM »

Stupendous news! Grimes still has a chance to make turtle soup after all!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #27 on: October 06, 2014, 12:26:40 PM »

Clinton could be helping her.  I don't think it will be enough for Grimes, but it will also be interesting to see what Clinton campaigning will do for Pryor in AR.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #28 on: October 06, 2014, 12:39:20 PM »

I woke up this morning thinking "Damn, Grimes must be trailing by 6-8 right now."

Glad to be surprised.
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Senator & Ambassador Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #29 on: October 06, 2014, 01:35:47 PM »

This has to be considered an outlier until another reliable pollster confirms it, but for now it's a good morale booster for Grimes.
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Bardella ciao!
Antonio V
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« Reply #30 on: October 06, 2014, 04:17:58 PM »

Wow.

Of course it's just one poll and needs confirmation, but still far better than nothing.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #31 on: October 06, 2014, 04:46:03 PM »

McConnell will win. SUSA's good but jumpy, plus if Dems really thought Grimes was ahead we'd hear more about it.

We will in the coming days. Wink
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #32 on: October 06, 2014, 05:52:21 PM »

Wow.

Of course it's just one poll and needs confirmation, but still far better than nothing.

I don't think Grimes will win, but this is the 2nd poll showing her ahead.
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Holmes
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« Reply #33 on: October 06, 2014, 06:06:09 PM »

It's an outlier. If you saw a poll with Peters down two in Michigan, you would call it an outlier. The same skepticism should be applied here.

Well, Michigan polling is always sh**t, and SUSA is really good in Kentucky. Grimes needs a much more comfortable lead in the polls if she wants to win, though.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #34 on: October 06, 2014, 06:48:50 PM »

So this is the poll that Grimes' PR thirty minutes ago was talking about, right?
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #35 on: October 06, 2014, 08:25:49 PM »

If Grimes wins, will everyone talk about how KY is going the way of Virginia and Florida because White hicks always vote Republican obviously? Tongue

In all seriousness, I'll still maintain that, even in this climate, politics remains local.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #36 on: October 06, 2014, 09:05:18 PM »

If Grimes wins, will everyone talk about how KY is going the way of Virginia and Florida because White hicks always vote Republican obviously? Tongue

In all seriousness, I'll still maintain that, even in this climate, politics remains local.

No one who understands anything would actually say that.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2014, 09:12:48 PM »

If Grimes wins, will everyone talk about how KY is going the way of Virginia and Florida because White hicks always vote Republican obviously? Tongue

In all seriousness, I'll still maintain that, even in this climate, politics remains local.

No one who understands anything would actually say that.

I know, just poking fun at the people who now act like VA is now this amazing place than can proudly flaunt as a future Atlas-Red state just because it's trending Democrat, where they would have been damning it as just another culturally backward Atlas-Blue state a few years ago.  It's not an overly different state than it was in '04, it doesn't take THAT big of a shift to tip the scales.
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Flake
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« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2014, 09:15:21 PM »



Seems like most of the shift is coming from the 35-49 age group.
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KCDem
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« Reply #39 on: October 06, 2014, 09:35:51 PM »



Seems like most of the shift is coming from the 35-49 age group.

SUSA's cross tabs are notoriously bad. Ignore them.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #40 on: October 07, 2014, 12:15:44 AM »

Don't tell me that ad of her shooting frisbees actually worked

I think KY is one of those places where shooting some gun trumps help saving a kid that was abducted to Africa ... Tongue

Is McConnell actively trying to anger his base again?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #41 on: October 07, 2014, 12:20:36 AM »

This poll has some subgroups that seem really off unless Grimes is running a hell of a campaign.

She's only down 44-45 with men after being down 38-48 last poll. Paul beat Conway 60-38 with men in 2010.

The 35-49 age demo in this poll flipped from 49-39 McConnell to 37-47 Grimes in a month. Paul beat Conway 59-40 in that age group.

Grimes is only trailing 40-52 with people who make over $80k. Paul beat Conway 63-36.

Finally, she's only up 71-21 with self identified Democrats, which Conway managed to hold 83-18. However, this could be KY Dixiecrats moving back to their usual ID after being a 40-38 Republican state in 2010.

This is hard state to predict because demographics don't matter here at all. It's almost all white and they sway which ever way the wind blows.

Don't bother paying any attention to that stuff (especially in a SUSA poll).
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #42 on: October 07, 2014, 06:52:14 AM »

"Ignore everything about the poll...except that Grimes lead!"
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Flake
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« Reply #43 on: October 07, 2014, 07:33:33 AM »

"Ignore everything about the poll...except that Grimes lead!"

Yeah, we have to have some sort of reliable cross tabs. I'm even more skeptical of this poll now.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #44 on: October 07, 2014, 08:23:57 AM »

"Ignore everything about the poll...except that Grimes lead!"

Yeah, we have to have some sort of reliable cross tabs. I'm even more skeptical of this poll now.

I guess you guys have never looked at a SUSA poll before. The crosstabs are always bizarre. That doesn't mean the top line number is wrong though.

I'm certainly not spinning for the conservative Democrats here. It'd be funny if McConnell somehow lost but I've predicted that he'll win from the start (and I'm not changing that because of this).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #45 on: October 07, 2014, 08:27:21 AM »

Phil is right, this must be the first time I have ever seen someone on the Atlas say to ignore the crosstabs on a poll.
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Person Man
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« Reply #46 on: October 07, 2014, 08:30:36 AM »

This race is still lean R but McConnell still hasn't sealed the deal yet.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #47 on: October 07, 2014, 12:35:49 PM »

Grimes has been my girl all along. I'm skeptical about the poll but this race is tighter than most give it credit for.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #48 on: October 07, 2014, 04:22:02 PM »

Phil is right, this must be the first time I have ever seen someone on the Atlas say to ignore the crosstabs on a poll.

Or I'm pointing out that ignoring essentially all of the crosstabs but trusting that the poll's top line is correct (when it's definitely an outlier at least for now) is a silly idea.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #49 on: October 07, 2014, 04:34:53 PM »

Those of us who actually know something about politics know that SurveyUSA has always had very weird cross tabs, even when the top lines turn out to be accurate.
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