3rd wave of YouGov/CBS/NYT Governor polls
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Author Topic: 3rd wave of YouGov/CBS/NYT Governor polls  (Read 2533 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 05, 2014, 10:19:04 AM »

AK: 45-40 Walker (I) *PICKUP
AL: 65-28 Bentley (R)
AR: 49-38 Hutchinson (R) *PICKUP
AZ: 51-39 Ducey (R)
CA: 56-36 Brown (D)
CO: 49-45 Hickenlooper (D)
CT: 42-42 Malloy/Foley *TIE
FL: 47-44 Scott (R)
GA: 48-43 Deal (R)
HI: 41-34-6 Ige (D)
IA: 51-39 Branstad (R)
ID: 57-32 Otter (R)
IL: 47-43 Quinn (D)
KS: 45-42 Brownback (R)
MA: 47-41 Coakley (D)
MD: 55-38 Brown (D)
ME: 39-37-10 Michaud (D) *PICKUP
MI: 46-45 Schauer (D) *PICKUP
MN: 49-42 Dayton (D)
NE: 56-35 Ricketts (R)
NH: 49-40 Hassan (D)
NM: 48-41 Martinez (R)
NV: 55-25 Sandoval (R)
NY: 57-31 Cuomo (D)
OH: 53-36 Kasich (R)
OK: 58-33 Fallin (R)
OR: 49-42 Kitzhaber (D)
PA: 50-41 Wolf (D) *PICKUP
RI: 42-37 Raimondo (D)
SC: 53-36 Haley (R)
SD: 57-31 Daugaard (R)
TN: 59-29 Haslam (R)
TX: 54-40 Abbott (R)
VT: 46-29-11 Shumlin (D)
WI: 48-48 Walker/Burke *TIE
WY: 52-30 Mead (R)
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2014, 10:21:54 AM »

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Splendid news! The People's Pat is soaring!
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2014, 10:23:41 AM »

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LOL
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2014, 10:35:42 AM »

Nice. Looks like the Dem Wave is truly building now!

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Splendid news! The People's Pat is soaring!

Quinn was down 4 in last month's YouGov! His momentum is now truly unstoppable!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2014, 10:47:15 AM »

If anyone wants to add them to the database, here's the link:

PDF-file.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2014, 11:07:23 AM »

YouGov map:



Dark green races are within 2% and toss-ups.

30% shades show a 2-5% lead.

40% shades show a 5-10% lead.

60% shades are safe states.
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KCDem
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2014, 11:17:24 AM »

Since YouGov uses the same group of respondents in every poll, it's worth keeping track of the margin changes to determine any possible "momentum":

MARGIN CHANGES:

AK: 45-40 Walker (I) Previously unpolled
AL: 65-28 Bentley (R) Bentley +3
AR: 49-38 Hutchinson (R) Hutchinson +4
AZ: 51-39 Ducey (R) Ducey +11
CA: 56-36 Brown (D) Brown +2
CO: 49-45 Hickenlooper (D) Hickenlooper +4
CT: 42-42 Malloy/Foley Foley +1
FL: 47-44 Scott (R) no change
GA: 48-43 Deal (R) Carter +3
HI: 41-34-6 Ige (D) Ige +5
IA: 51-39 Branstad (R) Hatch +1
ID: 57-32 Otter (R) Otter +7
IL: 47-43 Quinn (D) Quinn +8
KS: 45-42 Brownback (R) Davis +4
MA: 47-41 Coakley (D) Baker +2
MD: 55-38 Brown (D) Brown +3
ME: 39-37-10 Michaud (D) Michaud +3
MI: 46-45 Schauer (D) Schauer +3
MN: 49-42 Dayton (D) no change
NE: 56-35 Ricketts (R) Ricketts +1
NH: 49-40 Hassan (D) Havenstein +8
NM: 48-41 Martinez (R) Martinez +2
NV: 55-25 Sandoval (R) Sandoval +8
NY: 57-31 Cuomo (D) Cuomo +2
OH: 53-36 Kasich (R) Kasich +4
OK: 58-33 Fallin (R) Fallin +7
OR: 49-42 Kitzhaber (D) Richardson +1
PA: 50-41 Wolf (D) Corbett +2
RI: 42-37 Raimondo (D) Polled different candidates in previous release
SC: 53-36 Haley (R) Sheheen +4
SD: 57-31 Daugaard (R) Wismer +1
TN: 59-29 Haslam (R) Haslam +3
TX: 54-40 Abbott (R) Davis +4
VT: 46-29-11 Shumlin (D) Shumlin +6
WI: 48-48 Walker/Burke Burke +4
WY: 52-30 Mead (R) Gosar +6
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2014, 12:28:30 PM »

Brownback lead confirmed. I'll now accept my accolades.
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Flake
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2014, 12:34:36 PM »

Brownback lead confirmed. I'll now accept my accolades.

They still repoll the same people. Obviously Governor Brownback is in for a thrashing
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2014, 12:40:40 PM »

Brownback lead confirmed. I'll now accept my accolades.
By a group with questionable methodology that once showed him ahead by 12.

-----------

Both the gubernatorial and senatorial numbers look much better this time. Still not authentic polling via a random sample, but outside of a few select races YouGov has stopped looking like someone who just pulled numbers out of a hat and treated them like authentic data.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2014, 01:17:23 PM »

Brownback lead confirmed. I'll now accept my accolades.

Yes, among the same exact group of respondents each month, Brownback has sunk from a 12 point lead in July, to a 7 point lead in August, and now only 3 point lead in September. Brownbackmentum!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2014, 01:25:42 PM »

Since YouGov uses the same group of respondents in every poll, it's worth keeping track of the margin changes to determine any possible "momentum":

MARGIN CHANGES:

AK: 45-40 Walker (I) Previously unpolled
AL: 65-28 Bentley (R) Bentley +3
AR: 49-38 Hutchinson (R) Hutchinson +4
AZ: 51-39 Ducey (R) Ducey +11
CA: 56-36 Brown (D) Brown +2
CO: 49-45 Hickenlooper (D) Hickenlooper +4
CT: 42-42 Malloy/Foley Foley +1
FL: 47-44 Scott (R) no change
GA: 48-43 Deal (R) Carter +3
HI: 41-34-6 Ige (D) Ige +5
IA: 51-39 Branstad (R) Hatch +1
ID: 57-32 Otter (R) Otter +7
IL: 47-43 Quinn (D) Quinn +8
KS: 45-42 Brownback (R) Davis +4
MA: 47-41 Coakley (D) Baker +2
MD: 55-38 Brown (D) Brown +3
ME: 39-37-10 Michaud (D) Michaud +3
MI: 46-45 Schauer (D) Schauer +3
MN: 49-42 Dayton (D) no change
NE: 56-35 Ricketts (R) Ricketts +1
NH: 49-40 Hassan (D) Havenstein +8
NM: 48-41 Martinez (R) Martinez +2
NV: 55-25 Sandoval (R) Sandoval +8
NY: 57-31 Cuomo (D) Cuomo +2
OH: 53-36 Kasich (R) Kasich +4
OK: 58-33 Fallin (R) Fallin +7
OR: 49-42 Kitzhaber (D) Richardson +1
PA: 50-41 Wolf (D) Corbett +2
RI: 42-37 Raimondo (D) Polled different candidates in previous release
SC: 53-36 Haley (R) Sheheen +4
SD: 57-31 Daugaard (R) Wismer +1
TN: 59-29 Haslam (R) Haslam +3
TX: 54-40 Abbott (R) Davis +4
VT: 46-29-11 Shumlin (D) Shumlin +6
WI: 48-48 Walker/Burke Burke +4
WY: 52-30 Mead (R) Gosar +6

This information is more useful than the actual topline numbers considering YouGov's methodology. I still don't give them any credence though.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2014, 01:32:07 PM »


RATINGS CHANGE:

PA Gov: Safe D >>> Toss-up/Tilt R
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2014, 03:29:33 PM »

So, since they poll the same people every time, should I not be worried that Coakley is leading by 6 in this poll?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2014, 03:45:38 PM »

Lets go Burke, Quinn and King. 
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2014, 03:48:04 PM »

Great news for the People's Republics of Illinois and Massachusetts!

The dirty regressive hands will be pried from the hands of our throats by the liberal champions after all.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2014, 03:51:36 PM »

These polls are way too biased for the incumbent and the state's partisan leaning.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2014, 04:18:44 PM »

Clearly FL may be off, but clearly younger voters are clearly voting in these polls than before, especially as we.see.in the WI poll. Walker is Unions top target.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2014, 04:20:30 PM »

Clearly FL may be off, but clearly younger voters are clearly voting in these polls than before, especially as we.see.in the WI poll. Walker is Unions top target.

RATINGS CHANGE:

FL Gov: Toss-Up >>> Clearly D
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2014, 05:39:24 PM »

Clearly FL may be off, but clearly younger voters are clearly voting in these polls than before, especially as we.see.in the WI poll. Walker is Unions top target.

RATINGS CHANGE:

FL Gov: Toss-Up >>> Clearly D

No don't you understand? Clearly Florida may be off.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2014, 08:18:27 PM »

Since YouGov uses the same group of respondents in every poll, it's worth keeping track of the margin changes to determine any possible "momentum":

MARGIN CHANGES:


IL: 47-43 Quinn (D) Quinn +8


If they poll the exact same people, then yeah, Rauner's done for.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2014, 08:20:12 PM »

RIP Rauner Sad.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2014, 08:30:15 PM »

Clearly FL may be off, but clearly younger voters are clearly voting in these polls than before, especially as we.see.in the WI poll. Walker is Unions top target.

RATINGS CHANGE:

FL Gov: Toss-Up >>> Clearly D

No don't you understand? Clearly Florida may be off.
Okay.

RATINGS CHANGE:

FL Gov: Clearly D >>> 100% Safe R just like Alabama
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2014, 11:27:50 PM »

Carter has closed the margin by 3 points since last month's poll. Cartermentum!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2014, 03:15:53 AM »

I wouldn't read all too much into these polls, mostly because they are already 2-3 weeks old.

And as usual, some results are odd: For example in SC, they didn't even include the 3rd party Gov. candidate who spends a ton of money for his campaign.
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