KS: Gravis: Orman +7

[IceSpear]

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.

[IceSpear]

Orman will win and the DNC needs to take note. Democrat is the bad word in the Plains and South, not the policies of the Democratic Party. If Davis were independent like Orman, he'd be up 15 on Brownback.

Republican is also a bad word, but not as severely. An "Independent" might have beaten Cochran and Rounds as well if there were no Democrats involved.

If I'm head of the DSCC for 2016, I'm putting no Democrat on the ballot in 2016 against Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Moran, Hoeven, Thune, and Lee. Instead, I put out a feeler for the most Democratic friendly Independent I can find, tell innocuous PACs to support them, and just step back and see what happens.

I hope Mike Beebe potentially running would be an exception to that.

[IceSpear]

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.

For Democrats to win three of those? It is. Begich and Braley are clearly losing, Udall is a 50/50 shot at best, and only Hagan is ahead.

Anyway, I strongly encourage Democrats not to run candidates in half of the Senate seats up next year. It will simplify the Republican path to keeping a majority.

So it's extremely unlikely for Democrats to win a seat where they're favored, another seat which is a coin flip, and then an upset in one where they're currently an underdog? Note that I didn't say it was likely, just that it wasn't a remote and slim chance like the tone of the initial post implied. I think you guys might be on your victory lap a bit early. Republicans with a 58% chance still leaves Democrats a 42% chance.

[IceSpear]

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.

For Democrats to win three of those? It is. Begich and Braley are clearly losing, Udall is a 50/50 shot at best, and only Hagan is ahead.

Anyway, I strongly encourage Democrats not to run candidates in half of the Senate seats up next year. It will simplify the Republican path to keeping a majority.

So it's extremely unlikely for Democrats to win a seat where they're favored, another seat which is a coin flip, and then an upset in one where they're currently an underdog? Note that I didn't say it was likely, just that it wasn't a remote and slim chance like the tone of the initial post implied. I think you guys might be on your victory lap a bit early. Republicans with a 58% chance still leaves Democrats a 42% chance.