KS: Gravis: Orman +7

[eric82oslo]

Gravis. Consistency dictates that no one is allowed to care about this poll.

Gravis is consistently bad in a specific way.  If anything, this suggests Orman is ahead by more

This. Gravis is showing Hillary doing horribly in all of the four states they've polled to date; California, Connecticut, Nevada and Iowa. Gravis has had an extreme R bias all year long. So taking that into account, Orman should be up by 10% at least.

I mean, Gravis showing Hillary would do 14% worse than Obama in California? Come on! Give me a break.

[eric82oslo]

So by that logic, All the polls that have Orman up mid single digits are wrong, and when you unskew this it will have an even bigger Orman lead?

One of those single digit polls increased to a 12% Orman lead once you excluded the undecided and "forced" people to choose between the two candidates. Evidence at this point suggests that Orman's lead will only increase once more voters get to know who Orman really is. One of the latest polls showed that one out of three Kansans still don't know much/any about Orman. Almost everyone knows Roberts though, and very few like him, even amongst Republicans themselves.

[eric82oslo]

Gravis is still a bad pollster, but what I think is going on is a clear Orman lead, and I think a lot of Democrats are saying Orman should be up by more are using past polling by Gravis (which usually favors Republicans) but they've gotten some races right in the past (the most recent one I can think of is the Florida Democratic Primary) and this, along with all the other polls showing Orman up by single digits, should show that Gravis isn't too far off.

Three polls, I think all three PPP polls, have showed Orman with a double digit lead, and that's with loads of low-intensity voters, that is mostly younger voters and Hispanics - typically Democratic demographics (though perhaps not quite as much in Kansas) - who have still yet to tune into the race.