Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,091
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: October 05, 2014, 01:06:22 AM » |
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« edited: October 05, 2014, 01:41:43 AM by Lowly Griff »
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Fantastic news! If IA could be trusted and we went off its crosstabs, Carter getting 32% of the white vote is enough for a majority. Looking at the crosstabs, though...I really don't think Carter will do that well with whites and blacks are oversampled here as well.
On the other hand, Latinos/Asians/others are only 2% of the poll (should be at least 5-6% in this election) and they're skewed very heavily to Deal. In addition to that, the oversampling of blacks is cancelled out by the fact that the poll only shows 66% voting for Carter at the moment.
I think overall it balances out, and this is a tie at the moment.
What I do find hilarious (and it's not just IA: other polls have shown this, too) is the 18-29 demographic going for Carter and Perdue each by about 10 points.
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