3 simple Q's (Who are buying homes? Why are suburbs Rep? Why are cities Dem?)

[Smash255]

Well suburbs aren't exactly so Republican, depending on the part of hthe country.  Boston's suburbs are liberal and have been for awhile.  new York's suburbs (especially Long Island, & Westchester) have gone from GOP to DEm & now is fairly liberal.  Philly's suburbs Montco & Bucks have done the same & are now fairly liberal.  D.C's subrubs are moving leftward (Fairfax especially)  Denver's suburbs are pretty liberall,  Seattle's suburbs are fairly liberal, same with the bay area.

[Smash255]

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You could be right about this, at least for your area. It could be that both rural and city populations are moving to the suburbs. I just looked at the housing data and the national home ownership rate increased from 63% in 1965 to 64% in 1995-- a 1% gain for three decades. In 2004 it was at 68.6%, an over 4% gain in just the past 9 years. While 4% of households is a tiny fraction, it is a lot more movement than we've seen up until now.

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This doesn't explain why rural voters are heavily GOP though.

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In which direction?

Smash255-- true, but I want to establish the general patterns, and then look at the inevitable exceptions, like my own county. But feel free to post why you think these exceptions exist.

The factor  the housing rate increase is in direct correlation with  the poor economy of recent years.  I work in the mortagge industry, interest rates over the last few years have been at its lowest levels EVER.  The rates have been impacted by the economy for the most part.  the 10 year note for example, when the yield on the note goes up the rates go up when iut goes downn the note goes down.  Rates were going up for 7 straight weeks, (the note was rising during this time) the March jobs report came out & it was a dissapointment, not went back down a bit as a result.  The Fed lowered the prime rate quite a bit from 2001-2004, due to the sluggish economy, rates were at the lowest as a result.  Prime rate has gone up from 4% last June to 5.75% now, but its still VERY LOW compared to historic levels.  Thats the main reason why Home Ownership has gone up.


Now to why the exceptions.  In part I think it has to do with social issues.  Most of the Democratic suburban areas I mentioned above are fairly socially liberal areas (use to be moderate on social issues) & are economically moderte areas for the most part (use to be economically conservative)  the areas.   So the suburban areas mentioned above have become more liberal especially on social issues, in an era the GOP is moving right socially has a lot to do with it.  Another reason is the collapse of machine politics on the local level.  Can't speak much about the other areas I mentioned, but Long Island was controlled for a long time by GOP machione politics.  It started to move towards the Democrats on a National level first in the early 90's, but at this time the large wins the GOP use to have on the local level became smaller & smaller.  Eventually leading to the change of power in the local governments which really took shape from about 1996-2002.  So to why the exception with some suburbs (Long Island, Westchester Philly burbs, Fairfax VA, Seatte burbs, etc) bucking the trend has a lot to do the areas becoming more liberal especially socially liberal at a time the GOP has become more socially conservative as well as a breakdown of machine politics in the local governent.

I would actually say on suburban areas it really depends on the part of the country.  This probably goes a long way to explain why blue states have gotten bluer & red states redder.  Suburban areas in the NorthEast. MidATlantic & West Coast (minus Orange Co) for the most part are Democratic areas or at least trending more Democrat, suburbs in the South, Mid West & Rocky Mtn region (minus Denver) tend to be Republican & trending more GOP

[Smash255]

This will be a simple post compared to others on the thread, but I feel it needs saying.

There are a HUGE number of factors that go into the ultimate voting trend of a demographic or region.  There are multiple types of "poor" people, from the traditionalist, 'American dream' economics type to the liberals striving against what they feel is an unjust system.  Just like there are multiple types of poor, there are also multiple types of middle and upper class folks as well.

The Republican personality is both attracted to suburbs (and rural areas) and cultivated in suburbs.  The type of person who leaves the city to buy a house in a suburb is more likely to be Republican and the person raised in a suburb is more likely to have Republican values.

The suburban concept is a bit more complex than that.  This argument would fit more 15 years or so ago than it does now.  Their are quite a few once republican & now Democratic suburbs (& others who continue to shift leftward.  NYC's burbs of Long Island and Westchester ae great examples of this, so is the Philly burbs of Bucks, Montco & Deleware counties,  Fairfax VA is in the midst of going through the transition.  The suburbs of Seattle & portions of the Denver burbs are the same, & the San Francisco burbs were once Republican..  Now in certain parts of the country as wwith the Atlanta suburbs & Houston suburbs your argument is a bit truer, not so much with the suburbs in the Mid-Atlantic, North East & Pacific (minus Orange County) & even Orange, despite still being strongly GOP is not even close to as strongly GOP as it once was.

In the past it used to be Urban areas strongly Democratic, Suburban areas Strongly Republican, with the rural areas being more of a mixed bag,  depending on which rural area it was.  Now its more along the lines of Urban areas still being heavily Democratic, but now the rural areas are Strongly Republican & the suburban areas are the mixed bag depending on the area with some Democratic suburbs & some Republican suburbs.

[Smash255]

Democrats are much more interested in considering issues of class.  In turn, central cities are Democratic because of the enormous class disparities that exist there.  Residents of central cities (especially old-fashioned, high-density cities) see large numbers of very wealthy and very poor, often with no  middle class. Such a situation creates anger among the poor and guilt among the rich. In both cases, the result is a Democratic landslide. Suburbs tend to be MUCH more homogenous. If you only see people who are economically similar to you, you're going to be much less likely to feel a great crisis in wealth distribution.

The suburb depiction I would say was more true in the past or now at least more true in the south & midwest.  Suburbs in the northeast & midatlantic especially don't really fit into this mold & have trended Democratic over the past 15 years or so