SC-Crantford Research: Haley+4
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  SC-Crantford Research: Haley+4
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Author Topic: SC-Crantford Research: Haley+4  (Read 520 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 02, 2014, 09:58:37 AM »

Republican Nikki Haley - 41%
Democrat Vincent Sheheen - 37%
Independent Republican Petition Candidate Tom Ervin - 7%
Undecided - 15%

These results come from our in-house IVR (computer dialed) survey of 688 active South Carolina registered voters. The survey was conducted September 29th, 2014.

http://crantfordresearch.blogspot.co.at/2014/09/new-sc-statewide-polling-results.html

Reminds me of 2010:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=125191.0
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2014, 11:29:47 AM »

This race could use a credible poster. The independent Republican challenge could hand the race to Sheheen.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2014, 03:54:31 PM »

15 undecided with one month to go is too much. Other polls have found 10 point leads, so I'm not buying it.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2014, 04:59:33 PM »

I was about to move this to Likely R, but then this comes up, and at Lean R it stays.

Com'on Sheheen! You can do it!
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2014, 10:47:23 PM »

The major difference between this poll and the Winthrop one is that this poll identified Ervin by his self described moniker of "independent Republican" while the Winthrop poll described him by the moniker of "petition" that will be by his name on the actual ballot.  It's quite apparent that without being called an independent Republican, Ervin takes far fewer votes from Haley than would otherwise be the case.  Given how inelastic South Carolina politics tend to be and the fact this is a rematch of 2010, while the final margin is likely to be single digit, this race is Safe R.
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