Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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  Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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Author Topic: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015  (Read 50695 times)
politicus
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« Reply #200 on: September 02, 2015, 11:46:21 AM »
« edited: September 02, 2015, 12:03:26 PM by politicus »

And now? if a divided party, any chances SD looks at them?

It seems most likely SD-R-Progress. But will Progress go with the left?

I doubt UP is in shape to enter a government, they will have to sort out their party hierarchy first. I would be really surprised if they are part of the new coalition. It is S-R-HR or S-R-Progress or S-R-HR-Progress we are talking about.

Even disregarding that a UP-SD coalition would need to include Centre (since PP, Progress and Republic would be out) and SD/Centre is a no go with both an openly gay MP and Rigmor Dam + the two other female SDs are also very socially liberal. There is no need to consider Centrists United now. It was only relevant if more SoCon (or at least less SoLib) SDs had been elected.
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jmlv
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« Reply #201 on: September 02, 2015, 11:50:59 AM »

I know you do not completely agree but I think KLJ played badly and led his party to a disaster. IF he was out, they would have another leader to do better. And I do not think this is good for him either, because he is out of everything.

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politicus
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« Reply #202 on: September 02, 2015, 12:56:44 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2015, 01:04:43 PM by politicus »

That Progress Party sounds to me like Liberal Alliance in the Danish context

Yes, they are very much alike. Soft Libertarians, who are willing to compromise and pursue their agenda step by step. There is just the added element of separatism and then the fact that they operate in a much more socially conservative country, which gives them different priorities.

Also, just Progress. No Party (flokkurin), that is old fashioned in the Faroes. The Republican Party is now Republic, The Home Rule Party is New Self-Government and then there is Progress.

PP can hardly become Peoples (or People), but maybe we will see the others rebranded as Equality (SDs Faroese name means the Equality Party), Union and Centre.
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jmlv
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« Reply #203 on: September 02, 2015, 01:03:13 PM »

Can still be claimed that the FO is more socially conservative with Sonja J the third in votes?

It looks like FO went to bed in a convent and woke up in London Soho.
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politicus
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« Reply #204 on: September 02, 2015, 01:15:35 PM »

Can still be claimed that the FO is more socially conservative with Sonja J. the third in votes?

It looks like FO went to bed in a convent and woke up in London Soho.

Nah, they are just slowly catching up to the rest of Scandinavia. There are several gay MPs in the other Scandinavian countries and we even have a gay chairman for our Conservatives. There are parts of Western Norway and rural Finland that are as SoCon as the Faroes, but not in Denmark.

At the moment we have two gay party leaders and one gay deputy leader, plus one bisexual deputy leader in our nine parties with representation in Parliament, so LGBT people are actually over represented at the top of Danish politics. It will take decades before a Conservative Faroese party gets a gay leader or even MP.
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jmlv
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« Reply #205 on: September 02, 2015, 01:33:47 PM »

A question: once they decide to form a coalition, either with HR or Progress, are they also obliged to announce a joint manifesto with the main points of their agreement tod evelop in the 4 years time? Or they will simply announce they will govern together?
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politicus
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« Reply #206 on: September 02, 2015, 01:39:16 PM »

A question: once they decide to form a coalition, either with HR or Progress, are they also obliged to announce a joint manifesto with the main points of their agreement tod evelop in the 4 years time? Or they will simply announce they will govern together?

Just that they will govern together. They will almost certainly agree on an agenda for the government and announce the main points to the public, but they are not obliged to.
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politicus
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« Reply #207 on: September 02, 2015, 01:50:27 PM »

I know you do not completely agree but I think KLJ played badly and led his party to a disaster. IF he was out, they would have another leader to do better. And I do not think this is good for him either, because he is out of everything.


It's called taking a chance.

The alternatives were worse and it could have paid off, the fact it didn't doesn't mean it was the wrong move. It might have been selfishly motivated, but it was unlikely the party could have agreed on an another leader so if he had left it would have meant a nasty and divisive power struggle right before an election. Now they have the personal votes to go by, which is often how the Faroese decide leadership contests (in municipal elections they usually simply appoint whoever got the most votes Mayor regardless of who was on top of the list).

Their last election was unusually good, so they were bound to lose some votes and the present result is not a disaster by any means. They are still one of the Big 4 in Faroese politics and will be back.
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jmlv
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« Reply #208 on: September 02, 2015, 01:50:53 PM »

Is that an Assembly that meets often? I heard (dont know if it is right) that in Greenland they do not meet that often (maybe because of the distances, I do not know).
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politicus
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« Reply #209 on: September 02, 2015, 02:06:38 PM »

Is that an Assembly that meets often? I heard (dont know if it is right) that in Greenland they do not meet that often (maybe because of the distances, I do not know).

Yeah, doing constituency work in Greenland sometimes takes a bit of time Wink and would be too costly if they had to go back to Nuuk all the time.

Dunno about the Løgting actually, but would expect them to meet up fairly regularly. They have a lot of responsibility (being close to running their own little nation state) + distances are short and flights rarely gets cancelled - even in the winter. It is not an extreme climate like Greenland.
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jmlv
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« Reply #210 on: September 02, 2015, 03:19:36 PM »

Here in Spain there are periods where Parliament do not meet (summer, part of december and january). Otherwise they usually meet.

The legislative process takes long though (first things have to go to commission, then to plenary). I am not sure how these 33 folks work.

In a Spanish city like Madrid or Barcelona they have plenary sessions every month. But of course they are municipalities.

PD: do you think that AJ wants a broader coalition not only because 17 is too tight but also because they are not so confident of Progress Paety? Maybe it is me but I still see it a strange mix.
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politicus
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« Reply #211 on: September 02, 2015, 04:29:02 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2015, 07:43:02 PM by politicus »

Here in Spain there are periods where Parliament do not meet (summer, part of december and january). Otherwise they usually meet.

The legislative process takes long though (first things have to go to commission, then to plenary). I am not sure how these 33 folks work.

In a Spanish city like Madrid or Barcelona they have plenary sessions every month. But of course they are municipalities.

PD: do you think that AJ wants a broader coalition not only because 17 is too tight but also because they are not so confident of Progress Party? Maybe it is me, but I still see it a strange mix.

Probably, but it is also about mavericks in SD. Gerhard Lognberg deserted to UP in this period due to disagreement about a tunnel project (it is the Faroes after all Wink ), and there are both a the Mayor of Torshavn Heðin Mortensen (who was in UP 1988–2004) and Henrik Old, which may both be a risk when they have to make compromises with "strange bedfellows". If they are worried about Progress it is more likely they will just agree with them on a 2 year reform government - do their stuff on the areas they agree on, and then call a new election.

(actually there are two Mayors since Kristin Michelsen from Tvøroyrar kommuna also got elected - together with her deputy Bjarni Hammer, but that is the place on Suduroy where SD polled 57%+ and being on the SD list matters down there, so no worries about them defecting)

Home Rule defecting is actually a bigger risk than Progress since they are centrists and can easily swing to the other side, while Progress can not work with Centre.

All in all, after two MPs switched party in the last term having a buffer would be nice for Aksel Johannesen.
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jmlv
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« Reply #212 on: September 02, 2015, 04:57:13 PM »

But also looking at things from Progress side, it may be true in the end that flirting with the left hitted them. They were overpolled (I think from all parties they were the most overpolled). They were constantly in 4 or 3-4 MP and they got 2 (there is a third awaiting a recount but still...)

In politics it is not just that you agree on some things and you just develop them for a period of time. Always new problems arise and new things to take into account, and in some matters the left/right economic divide may be relevant (we should not forget they come from the PP)

HR may me more unstable but they seem to be OK with almost everything to stay in.

Of course, if they ever needed any help in left-wing economic matters, they could still try to do geometrical vote in the assembly and try to get the support of CP in economic issues. But if the ruling coalition approves same-sex marriage or abortion CP will not tell them even "hello".

By the way, I read somewhere there were also big issues with the Sirian refugees, is that actually that problematic?
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jmlv
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« Reply #213 on: September 02, 2015, 05:02:48 PM »

Also, besides the 2 guys who left SD, there was one guy who left Progress.

(indeed, it can be be I am generally skeptical of these Liberal Alliance free market folks)
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jmlv
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« Reply #214 on: September 02, 2015, 05:05:17 PM »

Actually, I find amusing how easily they change parties during the term Smiley there was an agreement to avoid such things in Spain and they are actually very bad considered.
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politicus
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« Reply #215 on: September 02, 2015, 05:19:17 PM »

But also looking at things from Progress side, it may be true in the end that flirting with the left hitted them. They were overpolled (I think from all parties they were the most overpolled). They were constantly in 4 or 3-4 MP and they got 2 (there is a third awaiting a recount but still...)

In politics it is not just that you agree on some things and you just develop them for a period of time. Always new problems arise and new things to take into account, and in some matters the left/right economic divide may be relevant (we should not forget they come from the PP)

HR may me more unstable but they seem to be OK with almost everything to stay in.

Of course, if they ever needed any help in left-wing economic matters, they could still try to do geometrical vote in the assembly and try to get the support of CP in economic issues. But if the ruling coalition approves same-sex marriage or abortion CP will not tell them even "hello".

By the way, I read somewhere there were also big issues with the Sirian refugees, is that actually that problematic?

I doubt Progress was under polled. I think they collapsed in the final days due to media reports about the "bloc politics".

But I think you underestimate just how much Faroese society needs to be modernized in many ways and how much a tightly woven elite of owners of big trawlers and fishing companies control the economy, which is what the leftists and Progress agree on being against. Also, the two Progress MPs are the two founders of the party, and they have more freedom of moving the party than others would have had. It is basically their party.

Anyway, it is pointless to discuss which coalition might be formed, we will soon know. My point is just that the Faroes is a special place and things that do not make sense in the rest of Europe might make sense in this particular context.

About Syrian refugees: A Danish historian named Lars Hovbakke Sørensen has gotten a bit of media attention by saying it would determine the election that KLJ had said they should take 1% of Danish refugees back in his New Year speech, but my Faroese contact says it was hardly debated in the campaign.

The proposal was quickly shot down because they lack social workers, various medical facilities and people knowledgable about treatment of torture victims etc. and because many of their municipalities are tiny. They could of course set up refugee camps, but that is not how Danish refugee politics work. SD was critical about the proposal and Hovbakke Sørensen saw it as "exciting" that the centre-right wanted refugees, but the centre-left was against, but it was mostly a matter of facilities and practical stuff. Not SD xenophobia.

It is logical for a unionist to want to contribute to solving the unions refugee burden, while the separatists want control over immigration policy for ideological reasons. So the separatists - incl. Republic and PP - were also against KLJs plan.
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politicus
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« Reply #216 on: September 02, 2015, 05:20:56 PM »

Also, besides the 2 guys who left SD, there was one guy who left Progress.

(indeed, it can be I am generally skeptical of these Liberal Alliance free market folks)

There were only two defectors. 1 guy left SD for UP and 1 Progress for PP. 
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jmlv
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« Reply #217 on: September 03, 2015, 03:39:56 AM »

Yes indeed, there were only two. But previously the Progress Party is also a split of PP and I am not sure if they actually splitted during the previous term 2008-2011. And anything can happen with HR.

What is the economic situation in FO now? There was a huge crisis in the 1990s.

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politicus
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« Reply #218 on: September 03, 2015, 04:31:35 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2015, 04:36:55 AM by politicus »

Yes indeed, there were only two. But previously the Progress Party is also a split of PP and I am not sure if they actually splitted during the previous term 2008-2011. And anything can happen with HR.

What is the economic situation in FO now? There was a huge crisis in the 1990s.


Pretty decent, it is the long term structural problems with an aging population, migration to Denmark (especially young women)/students never returning, combined with necessary investments in the public sector infrastructure that is the problem. And if sea based fish farming, which is very lucrative, can continue at current rate without polluting too much. So more sustainability than cash problems here and now - and then the dream of financing independence for some.

Progress split from PP in March 2011 and the election was in October. It was just Poul Michelsen and Hanna Jensen, some people from PPs youth org HUAX and a few others that left, many of their members are new people not previously engaged in politics. The former chairman of Home Rule Sámal Petur í Grund also switched to Progress.
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jmlv
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« Reply #219 on: September 03, 2015, 05:02:45 AM »

Thats why they want now a redistribution of wealth, which makes sense voting for the left (SD-Rep), I assume.

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politicus
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« Reply #220 on: September 03, 2015, 05:03:02 AM »

Maps of party strength:

http://kvf.fo/greinar/2015/09/02/si-foroyakortini-soleidis-atkvoddu-foroyingar#.VegZ_7TxlsM

Red = highest
Blue = lowest
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politicus
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« Reply #221 on: September 03, 2015, 05:40:52 AM »

The Speaker Jógvan á Lakjuni (PP) has had talks with all party leader and the opposition will try to form a government.

The main problem is that Republic/Progress/Home Rule want a roadmap towards independence and SD still being unionists at heart are unwilling to go along with that even if they want a separate Faroese Constitution and more autonomy. It will be hard to land a compromise between Republic/Progress and SD on this, but it will likely be done.

The mutual understanding about where a compromise should be about the economy, taxes, quotas etc. is high after all their previous contacts in the last couple of years, so it is the constitutional future that is the hard part. Despite PP being in the previous government the balance in this one would be a lot more separatist because Republic and Progress are more principled separatists and less willing too compromise on this issue.
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jmlv
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« Reply #222 on: September 03, 2015, 07:34:42 AM »

haha that map is the rainbow flag ! Cheesy
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jmlv
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« Reply #223 on: September 03, 2015, 07:36:30 AM »

Well Republic suggested a referendum for 2016.

Is not Home RUle more moderate on the separatist issue?
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politicus
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« Reply #224 on: September 03, 2015, 08:14:38 AM »

Well Republic suggested a referendum for 2016.

Is not Home RUle more moderate on the separatist issue?

Home Rule are gradualists wanting to take home area after area until there is almost nothing left of the union and then cut the last ties. SD are willing to go down that path for a while, but they disagree that the end goal should a priori be defined as a fully independent state. They want to keep their options open and are skeptical about whether all the costs of establishing a micro state are really worth it. Their traditional fear is that it will be impossible to secure an adequate welfare state in such a small country dependent on something as inherently unstable as fishing resources.

SD have always viewed PP as rich egoists and Republic as naive dreamers on this.
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