Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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  Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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Author Topic: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015  (Read 50740 times)
politicus
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« Reply #175 on: September 02, 2015, 02:39:11 AM »

No one knows if gay marriage is recognized in the Faroe Islands simply because no couple ever brought a case before the courts. And that is the Courts which correspond to do so.

Not necessarily. The Danish Realm is not a common law area where you need precedence from a court ruling to determine such things.

In principle the relevant authorities in the Faroes should just say how they are going to interpret the law when asked (and would have discussed such matters with the Danish Ministry of Justice after gay marriage was introduced in Denmark). That is what LGTB Denmark expected when they asked - and how it would be with other laws. Nobody knows because there is a political interest in keeping this question unanswered until there is a case.

(and still, there may by now be an answer, which is just not published online)
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politicus
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« Reply #176 on: September 02, 2015, 03:21:12 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2015, 06:29:30 AM by politicus »

Finally our French friend was right: Republic is doing better than expected.

Nah, he said they would top the poll. They are fourth.
Well they end up 2nd, and overperforming the latest polling by 2-3 points, but still, I admit I was wrong. It's just I had seen them overperforming nicely in the Danish generals, and I reckoned it could end up the same, but SD overperformed even more !

Let's see how the government making process goes for my second prediction! Wink

Republic only over performed Gallup by 1.4%, which was within the margin of error in the poll.

Regarding the Danish general elections - as I have pointed out many times in this thread - the dynamic is quite different with bread and butter issues at stake. In a Folketing election you got right wingers who would normally vote PP going Republic because they are the most principled nationalists and they like their tough talk, small party voters drifting to the big ones, young Libertarian business school students voting for the SD MP because he does standup and hosts a radio show and they think he is cool and such things. Voters float a lot more because the Faroese do not care about the Folketing, but still feel obliged to vote. It is low info voting based on feelings.

Løgting elections are high info voting after a lot of face to face contact with candidates and mostly based on socioeconomic interest. People vote their vallet. So the reasons the left did better in this are not the same as in a Folketing election. I think the anti-government (pro progressive taxes/anti free quotas to big fishing and lucky bastards) vote remained fairly strong all the time and Fynd simply had the wrong weighing in their polls. Gallup had all other parties than Progress and SD within the margin of error in their more "lefty" poll. And SD over performed with 2.2%, which was only slightly above the margin of error.

Gallup was actually decent (if to exactly great) except for "over polling" Progress and I think they were right about them at the time of polling. Progress collapsed in the last two days because of all the talk about bloc politics and how they would prop up a leftist government.
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jmlv
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« Reply #177 on: September 02, 2015, 03:45:10 AM »

Very naive move for him that of KLJ called earlier elections.
Would not be surprised if he tried to do anything possible to be part of a coalition with SD, even if he has to compromise big topics.
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jmlv
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« Reply #178 on: September 02, 2015, 03:58:09 AM »

By the way: The second in personal votes in the social democrats, Sonja Jógvansdóttir, is openly lesbian.
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politicus
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« Reply #179 on: September 02, 2015, 03:59:56 AM »

Regarding gay marriage it is worth noticing that the second spot on the SD list went to newcomer Sonja Jógvansdóttir with 1020 votes.

She is the first openly gay person to become an MP (her spouse is former Minister of Culture Annlis Bjarkhammar from Republic, but she was never an MP).

Apart from better living conditions for poor families her main campaign theme was gay marriage, so voters giving her such a strong mandate is a clear signal and given how much the Faroese care about personal votes I think it will have an influence. With her and Rigmor Dam in the SD group Aksel Johannesen will be under a strong pressure to choose a coalition that secures gay marriage or at least registered partnership.
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jmlv
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« Reply #180 on: September 02, 2015, 04:02:21 AM »

yes she scored 3rd on personal votes.
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jmlv
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« Reply #181 on: September 02, 2015, 04:07:25 AM »

when do you think the new government will be ready? few days?
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jmlv
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« Reply #182 on: September 02, 2015, 04:25:14 AM »

My bet is SD-Rep-Home Rule.

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politicus
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« Reply #183 on: September 02, 2015, 05:03:30 AM »

Very naive move for him that of KLJ called earlier elections.

Why? It was his only chance. The election was due within a few months anyway and if he had waited he would have lost control of his own party, which would have become fragmented and torn apart in internal infighting, and meanwhile Tunnelgate would have been kept alive and dominated the media. This way he kept the party together, quickly eliminated Tunnelgate as a campaign issue and ended up getting the second best personal result ahead of Bardur Nielsen. He also got to keep the initiative as PM. If internal pressure had forced him to resign as party leader the party would also have lost the PM post (PP would not have accepted another UP PM in this situation - too big a giveaway) and lost the initiative in the government forming process. There was simply nothing to be gained by waiting.
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jmlv
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« Reply #184 on: September 02, 2015, 05:14:28 AM »

Well it is good for him because he is MP but I am not sure for the party.
And in any case his continuation as leader will depend on whether he manages to ally with SD. Have they ever been in coalition?
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politicus
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« Reply #185 on: September 02, 2015, 06:01:47 AM »

Well, I asked a Faroese friend about SoCons in SD. She says that apart from Henrik Old only Bjarni Hammer might be against gay marriage, but she is unsure. The other six are pro. So either 6-2 or 7-1.

Unfortunately both the Home Rule MPs are against. Apart from Højgaard (who abstained in the 2014 vote), Skorheim is also against (I got that wrong, but since he is the Mayor of conservative Klaksvik it makes sense. So even if the party is majority pro-gay rights it has elected two opponents. Both the present and former chairman being against has to do with the balance between the blue collar/settlement wing and the urban/academic wing. Højgaard is blue collar (sailor and then small town postmaster) and Skorheim, who was a compromise candidate as chairman, is then on the SoCon side on this issue.

There will be a recount because Progress is only about 30 votes away from getting a seat from Home Rule, and this could then be important.

My friend is an SD so she doesn't follow UP politics, but she would ask around about the UP MPs.

It looks like only Republic-SD-Progress will get a gay marriage majority in parliament. But maybe Home Rule can be persuaded to call a referendum on it ( there should be a solid 60%+ majority among voters, so that would be just as good). They are not as hardcore opponents as PP and Centre and would likely prefer not to vote against a majority in their own party on this.
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jmlv
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« Reply #186 on: September 02, 2015, 06:07:01 AM »

I have no doubt that it will be approved, with this result.

What I have my doubts is when. Would they move fast and have it done within this year or will they wait until spring? I think that is pretty much the issue.
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jmlv
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« Reply #187 on: September 02, 2015, 06:36:25 AM »

A referendum can be the best solution.

Becuase if a new conservative majority in the future decided to repeal same-sex marriage, it would be more problematic to vote against the will of the people.

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politicus
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« Reply #188 on: September 02, 2015, 07:07:25 AM »

As expected KLJ will try to form a government.

Aksel Johannesen says his preferred coalition includes all four opposition parties (Republic-SD-Home Rule-Progress), which would have 19 seats and be more solid than a 17 seat three party government.
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politicus
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« Reply #189 on: September 02, 2015, 07:29:59 AM »

I have no doubt that it will be approved, with this result.

Well technically they do not have a pro-gay majority on their own.

Republic 7
non-SoCon SD 6-7
Progress 2

That is either 15 or 16. If they want Home Rule on board and they demands it off the table to enter government or Henrik Old threatens to leave if they do it they may have to drop it.

Both things are unlikely. Home Rule is divided and Højgaard abstained in 2014, so he is hardly a hardcore SoCon + Skorheim may mostly be against for opportunistic reasons given his conservative voter base, but you can not rule it out. Henrik Old could switch to UP if they tried to push a vote on it (another SoCon SD went to UP a couple of years back, although for different reasons). It would not be that great a risk as he is a settlement politician relying on personal votes more than party label, approving gay marriage would be more risky for him.

It all depends on how strongly Højgaard, Skorheim, Old and possibly Hammer feel about this and we can only guess about that.
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jmlv
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« Reply #190 on: September 02, 2015, 07:31:52 AM »

How long can they be trying to decide what government is formed?

is there a deadline to form the new government or to KLJ keep trying?
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jmlv
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« Reply #191 on: September 02, 2015, 07:37:38 AM »

Above 17 is also SD-UP-CP-Home Rule. Thats the card KLJ will try to play.
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politicus
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« Reply #192 on: September 02, 2015, 07:41:42 AM »

How long can they be trying to decide what government is formed?

is there a deadline to form the new government or to KLJ keep trying?

There is no deadline as such. He starts out consulting with the parties, and if a majority declines to support him he has to give the opportunity to the leader of the largest party. If Republic, SD and progress simply says no he will have to

There is no tradition for stalling, if SD refuses to negotiate it is over, but they will likely talk with him. It is a political culture with focus on being polite and orderly, following procedure etc. (in the usual dull, rational and non-melodramatic Scandinavian style Wink ).
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jmlv
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« Reply #193 on: September 02, 2015, 08:08:51 AM »

haha well, to me it sounds a bit of adversarial politics Smiley
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jmlv
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« Reply #194 on: September 02, 2015, 08:13:55 AM »

And I do not think SD will refuse to negotiate, if he has doubts about the other coalition.
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jmlv
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« Reply #195 on: September 02, 2015, 11:21:39 AM »

It seems KLJ has resigned as PM and tomorrow the leader of the SD will be appointed to start negotiaitons or thats what I have been told.
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politicus
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« Reply #196 on: September 02, 2015, 11:25:54 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2015, 12:51:59 PM by politicus »

It seems KLJ has resigned as PM and tomorrow the leader of SD will be appointed to start negotiations or that's what I have been told.

Yeah, that's right. "Løgmaður leggur kongin", "the Lawman lies down the Crown" as their public broadcaster Kringvarp chose to frame it. Wink
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politicus
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« Reply #197 on: September 02, 2015, 11:31:59 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2015, 11:35:32 AM by politicus »

There will be a party leader round tomorrow where the Speaker will interview the party leaders about their preferences, but there is no doubt Aksel Johannessen will then get a mandate to try forming a government.

The main reason KLJ gave up so quickly is that there was a challenge to his leadership of UP from the other MPs right away. So he was simply not in a position to fight on.

AFAIK he has not resigned as UP chairman yet, but he is de facto dethroned.
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jmlv
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« Reply #198 on: September 02, 2015, 11:34:52 AM »

And now? if a divided party, any chances SD looks at them?

It seems most likely SD-R-Progress. But will Progress go with the left?
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jmlv
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« Reply #199 on: September 02, 2015, 11:35:35 AM »

That Pogress Party sounds to me like Liberal Alliance in the Danish context
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