Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015

[politicus]

Current government 15
Republic, SD, Home Rule (or Centre for that matter) 15
Republic, SD, Progress 16. Add Home Rule and you get 18 (only option that gives gay marriage)
Centrists United on 17
Independence now! (Republic, Progress, PP) on 16

This would be a really messy result given that anything involving Progress/Centre seems impossible and Progress/Union a stretch (and PP, UP, Progress is only at 16 anyway). Not sure Progress dares to ally with the centre-left if they get a mediocre result. Although Republic, SD, Home Rule and Progress might agree on a Faroese constitution and "a leap forward" on sovereignty (taking over all they can under the 2005 agreement). Centrists United may be tempting for the two Johannesens, but if one of the two Home Rulers is Zakarias Wang, that option is out.

[Zanas]

I'm only gonna make one prediction, and that is that Republic will top the poll. Not by much, but top the poll. And also that the coalition making process will be a clusterf**k.

[politicus]

I'm only gonna make one prediction, and that is that Republic will top the poll. Not by much, but top the poll. And also that the coalition making process will be a clusterf**k.

Why should Republic top the poll? They have led an uninspired campaign and are polling fourth. You can't count on massive under polling. The dynamic in this is quite different than Folketing elections, which are much more volatile and unpredictable (since nobody's economic interests are at stake).

All the other three options are more logical: SD is the frontrunner and could very well keep a small lead, PP is on a roll and UP could bounce back on unionist voters seeking the real deal now that the independence question has been brought up.

Republic would need a near collapse of Home Rule or chipping away at least 2% from the SD left wing (and probably 3-3,5%). Both seems highly unlikely. Home Rule has led a great campaign and Skorheim has done well in debates while SD has positioned itself further left than in a long time.

Also not sure about the second. Faroese journos seem to assume the four opposition parties are now close to a mutual understanding about forming a coalition, so Republic, SD, Home Rule, Progress. Some even talk about an opposition "bloc", which is weird in a Faroese context. Their main uncertainty is whether Home Rule will be lured back to supporting the government.

[politicus]

In the last leader debate PP and SD quarreled about housing, Republic and Union about independence and Home Rule and Progress with Centre about gay marriage.

General perception seems to be: Tie, Union win, SocLib win (but homophobes won't care).

UP could very well bounce back on unionist voters going for the "real deal" now that the independence issue has been introduced.

[politicus]

Last poll from Fynd with difference to the previous one in brackets:

PP 20.4% (-0,4%)
UP 19.2% (-0,4)
SD 19.3% (-2,0%)
Home Rule 5.9% (+1,0)
Republic 16,5% (-1,5%)
Progress 11,2% (+2,5%)
Centre 7,4% (+0,7%)

Home Rule, Centre and Progress all gaining, while the left is losing even more ground and the two big centre-right parties are down a bit (well within the margin of error).

Seats:

PP 7   
UP 6   
SD 6   
Home Rule 2   
Republic 5   
Progress 4   
Centre 3

Only 11 seats to the left now. Still a narrow 17 seats majority together with the two other opposition parties, while the government is at 16 with Centre getting a third seat.

The three small parties get no less than 9 seats combined. It seems the gay marriage debate has benefitted both Progress, Centre and Home Rule.

[politicus]

Gallup is finally releasing a poll with a rather different picture: SD high, Republic at 19%+ and Home Rule near the threshold... One of the institutes will be dead wrong:

Gallup:
   
PP 18,2 %   6
UP 19,0 %   6
SD 22,9 % 8
Home Rule 3,1 % 1   
Republic 19,4 % 6   
Progress 10,6 % 4   
Centre 6,8 % 2

So 14 seats to the left and 19 to the opposition combined.

SD 3,6% higher, Republic 2,9% higher and PP 2.2% lower than Fynd, while Home Rule is 2,8% lower - at about half of the Fynd poll.

UP, Progress and Centre roughly on the same level (all slightly lower), but Centre misses the third seat in this one.

Neither of the polls have a majority for an "independence now" coalition. Republic, PP and Progress are at 16 in both.

[politicus]

Not really sure what to make of this. The Fynd poll is in better accordance with the general narrative about how the campaign is going, but on the other hand I find it doubtful if the left is really down to 35,8% combined.

After everything I have heard about how well Home Rule is doing it would be a big surprise if they end up anywhere near the threshold.

I tend to think the left must be somewhere in between the two polls and Home Rule at least on +4% and probably higher.

Other than that, who knows. It is a shame Gallup only released one poll, so there is no pattern.

[politicus]

Home Rule chairman Jogvan Skorheim has said that he wants KLJ out, but will not rule out supporting another PM from the current government parties and he also doesn't rule out working with Centre despite their battles. So basically Home Rule will sell their votes to the highest bidder (but this could get harder if Zakarias Wang is elected).

Given that KJL has the initiative and can not be toppled before he has had the chance to form a government the Home Rule demand could make it complicated. The question is how long KJL will try to hang on.

Republic leader Høgni Hoydal now unequivocally says the opposition parties should try to form a government, so no flirting with an independence coalition.

[politicus]

Election day is on - seems there will be the usual huge turnout.

Regarding the "bloc" thing a central aspect is that the two sides disagree on the fishing quota system and since fishing accounts for 97% of Faroese exports that is a crucial matter.

Republic, SD and Progress wants fishing quotas to be bought on auction and the profits benefitting the public budget (and help erase their 6 billion kroner national debt). Whereas the three government parties want to keep the current system where quotas are given to current fishermen/fishing companies and they are free to resell them to other Faroese residents (often netting multi million gains - there are big money in especially mackerel quotas). This system also excludes new entrants in the business, and has led to strawman problems with foreign companies buying up quotas, but it does give fishing communities a steady income.

Home Rule are somewhere in between on this (as in so many other matters).

So basically the left and the libertarians in Progress support a free market solution, while the other centre-right parties side with the vested interests in the business and a "do not rock the boat" approach.

For Progress and Republic it is also important that getting rid of the debt (or at least reducing it substantially) is a requirement for independence.

[jmlv]

From what you say, it looks like, then, there will be a government SD, Republic, Progress, most likely?

[jmlv]

If fishing cuotas are important and, on the other hand, they would pass other laws like same-sex marriage, that SD, Republic and Progress (in spite of being this one more right-wing), would be the most likely?

[politicus]

From what you say, it looks like, then, there will be a government SD, Republic, Progress, most likely?

Yes, If those three parties get a majority that seems fairly certain, even if Progress hasn't committed to it (at least not publicly).

If they need Home Rule, that might complicate things.

[jmlv]

when are the results expected?

And eould SD, if it gets the majority, be tempted to a SD, UP and CP?

[jmlv]

You talked about Zakarias Wang, what is actually his role on this?

[politicus]

If fishing cuotas are important and, on the other hand, they would pass other laws like same-sex marriage, that SD, Republic and Progress (in spite of being this one more right-wing), would be the most likely?

Legal equalizing of different kinds of farmers, maybe legal abortion (depending on how many SoCon SDs that get elected), free sale of alcohol (depending on how many SoCon SDs that get elected), closing various tax loopholes, cutting subsidies to businesses, lowering taxes for working poor and possibly all low income groups if their quota reform gives enough revenue. Increasing regulation of sea based fish farms (or if Progress gets their way establishing some cap n trade system for them).

They have do something about their health care sector, but I dunno what they will agree on.

Most likely they will try to speed up taking home the remaining areas that they can under the 2005 autonomy agreement and that will keep them busy. This will include courts, prisons and police.

It also depends whether Republic and Progress can pressure SD into working towards am independence referendum, but I doubt that. It is still at least a quasi-unionist party.

[jmlv]

where is it possible to see a list of areas taken?

[politicus]

where is it possible to see a list of areas taken?

http://kvf.fo/val/l2015

[jmlv]

There was a news in Retsinformation about the Progress Party where it stood in favor of liberalization of almost anything. They seemed OK to enter into a government but that was time ago. If the Progress Party does not join the government that might be a big problem, but they have not ruled it out apparently.

[politicus]

24 of 60 polling places counted. Only small places in, but it looks pretty good for SD, Home Rule and Progress.

Kringvarp does not give national numbers yet.

[politicus]

8,2% counted:

A   Fólkaflokkurin   546   20,6   718   26,5   -5,8
B   Sambandsflokkurin   450   17,0   464   17,1   -0,1
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   757   28,6   681   25,1   +3,5
D   Nýtt Sjálvstýri   53   2,0   45   1,7   +0,3
E   Tjóðveldi   666   25,2   643   23,7   +1,5
F   Framsókn   82   3,1   82   3,0   +0,1
H   Miðflokkurin   94   3,6   81   3,0   +0,6
Atkvøður   2663       2714      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka   2988   89,1%           10/5


So far PP is losing big, SD winning and everything else is fairly stable. Although Republic and Centre are doing well.

Turnout at 89.1%

[jmlv]

That seems pretty bad for the Peoples Party and good for SD.

UP seems unnafected

[politicus]

Right now the left is on 45,9 combined. Maybe Gallup had it right.

[jmlv]

If PP goes down so much it will contradict some of the latest polls....

[jmlv]

But is it my impression or the Progress Party is not going up as much as it was expected?

[politicus]

Vagur, the first "town" in (sixth largest) has the left up 11,8% and PP similarly down:

Vágur
Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 20:53
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A.    Fólkaflokkurin   144   16,5   241   28,3   -11,8
B.    Sambandsflokkurin   201   23,0   200   23,4   -0,4
C.    Javnaðarflokkurin   261   29,8   186   21,8   +8,0
D.    Nýtt Sjálvstýri   4   0,5   6   0,7   -0,2
E.    Tjóðveldi   234   26,7   195   22,9   +3,8
F.    Framsókn   5   0,6   5   0,6   0,0
H.    Miðflokkurin   26   3,0   20   2,3   +0,7
Atkvøður      878      853      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka      987   89,0%         3/0

If the other towns - incl. Torshavn - follow this pattern it will be a landslide.