Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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  Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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Author Topic: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015  (Read 50692 times)
politicus
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« Reply #25 on: August 09, 2015, 11:56:59 AM »
« edited: August 09, 2015, 12:07:03 PM by politicus »

KLJ says he wants to "work together" with the Social Democrats after the election. So it seems he is hoping for an SD-Centre-Union Party majority. The Centre Party would prefer this to Republic-SD-Centre as well.

He also says the chance of UP and Republic being in government together is "0,1%". So he doesn't rule it out completely Wink
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politicus
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« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2015, 02:22:35 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2015, 06:47:45 AM by politicus »

2011 results for the 60 precincts:

http://kvf.fo/val/l2011

There are sharp differences between various parts of the islands (sometimes even neighbouring settlements). Suduroy in the south is the SD stronghold, the six Norðoyar in the NE around Klaksvik is a PP stronghold, while Eysturoy is the UP heartland. PP used to be very strong in the southern part of the main island Streymoy, but this is less pronounced today. You also have separatist areas where Republic and PP share the vote. The Faroes would make for a fascinating map.

Torshavn incl. Hoyvik (same precinct) has around a third of the votes. Its southern suburb Agrir 4% and the second largest town Klaksvik 10%. The rest is spread out. Turnout is very high with 86,6% last time and 90%+ in the small places. Tiny Hattarvik on Fugloy even managed a 100% turnout in 2011 (all 15 of them - 11 PP votes and 4 Republic). The vast majority of votes are personal. Only the Union Party has a significant share of list votes.

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politicus
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« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2015, 05:07:31 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2015, 07:04:25 AM by politicus »

Strongholds (defined as 34%+ in the 2011 election - I used 34% as the limit to include Klaksvik as a PP stronghold). No less than 37 of 60 precincts have a 34%+ party. Sandur and Husar have two - Sandur being a separatist stronghold with Republic and PP on top, and Husar a ditto unionist with Union Party and SD tied on top.

Islands codes:

Nordoyar (N)
Eysturoy (E)
Stremoy (incl. surrounding islands) (ST)
Vagar (incl. Mykines) (V)
Sandoy (incl. Skuvoy) (SA)
Suduroy (SU)


Republic:

Velbastadur 49,1 (ST-south end)
Haraldssund 43,2 (N)
Sandur 42,8 (SA)
Mikladalur 42,4 (N)
Gjogv 37,9 (E-far north)


SD:

Dalur 70,0 (SA)
Porkeri 55,4 (SU)
Skopun 52,5 (SA)
Tvøroyar 48,4 (SU)
Hov 41,9 (SU)
Haldarsvik 41,2 (ST-north end)
Husar 35,1 (N)
Hosvik 35,1 (ST-center)
Sumba 34,8 (SU)
Famjin 34,7 (SU)
Skuvoya 34,4 (SA)


Home Rule:

Kirkja 44,4 (N)


Union Party:

Toftir 52,6 (E)
Strendur 42,8 (E)
Oyndarfjørdur 40,2 (E)
Oyrarbakki 40,7 (E)
Mykines 40,0 (V-west of main island)
Skali 37,7 (E)
Sørvagur 36,1 (V)
Husar 35,1 (N)


Peoples Party:

Hattarvik 73,3 (N)
Husavik 62,9 (SA)
Vidareid 54,5 (N)
Lopra 51,1 (SU)
Fossanes (=Hvannasund) 50,4 (N)
Svinoy 48,0 (N)
Bøur 43,8 (V)
Hestur 40,0 (ST-south of main island)
Hvalvik 37,8 (ST-center)
Hvalba 35,1 (SU)
Klaksvik 34,8 (N)
Sandur 34,8 (SA)
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politicus
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« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2015, 06:40:15 PM »
« Edited: August 10, 2015, 06:50:10 PM by politicus »

The strongholds for the five old parties mostly follow historical patterns. From the 20s onwards ocean going fishing transformed the Faroes from a peasant society with coastal fishing as a supplement to a fishing nation with much of the non-sea going population working in the land based fishing industry. In the areas there this happened in a classic capitalist manner with fishermen being underpaid wage earners (or in the beginning being paid in credit by the local merchant = losing everything if he went bankrupt, as many did after 1929) you got SD dominance. In the areas where fishermen teamed up (often also with land based investors) and shared the risk according to invested capital the Peoples Party quickly became dominant after it was founded in 1939 (this was mostly  old Home Rule Party areas) and in the fertile areas where farming continued to be fairly important the Union Party remained strong. The Home Rule Party retains strength in a few places, where they have had good local representatives. It is in areas that should otherwise have gone PP.

Republic having an ideologically motivated and diverse coalition makes it harder to explain what areas they gained prominence in, but basically those would be areas with a strong pro-independence tradition combined with both low free church/evangelical sect influence and low union influence.

Politics in Torshavn and Klaksvik is dominated by the professional middle class and more issue based  mixed with ideological voting. Parties are often split between urban and "coastal" voting blocs.
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jmlv
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« Reply #29 on: August 11, 2015, 01:42:14 PM »

Then, in the most propable option, the Centre Party gets involved.

Would this completely rule out same-sex marriage?

And in case this party is out of the coalition, how long do you think it would take before same-sex marriage is implemented, taking into account the proposals of 2014? Could it be within this year?

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politicus
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« Reply #30 on: August 11, 2015, 01:47:35 PM »

Then, in the most propable option, the Centre Party gets involved.

Would this completely rule out same-sex marriage?

And in case this party is out of the coalition, how long do you think it would take before same-sex marriage is implemented, taking into account the proposals of 2014? Could it be within this year?



If the Centre Party (or Peoples Party) is part of the coalition, that rules out gay marriage.

Since they can just implement the Danish rules it could happen within 3-4 months if they decided to do it.

(Greenland voted on it on May 26 and it takes effect from October 1)
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jmlv
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« Reply #31 on: August 11, 2015, 02:21:41 PM »

However, according to the polls you included here, the Centre Party could be even out of the assembly.

It is curious to see the different positions within the SD. MPs like Rigmor Dam were actively campaigning for same-sex marriage, would they vote for the Centre Party and rule it out?

Also, I talked to a Faroese MP about a year ago and he told me that, even if he was in favor of same-sex marriage, he was skeptical about the polls showing so much support among population. He further added that for those who were OK with it, it was not a major or important issue, but for those against it, it could be decisive when they vote.
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politicus
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« Reply #32 on: August 11, 2015, 03:29:45 PM »

However, according to the polls you included here, the Centre Party could be even out of the assembly.

It is curious to see the different positions within the SD. MPs like Rigmor Dam were actively campaigning for same-sex marriage, would they vote for the Centre Party and rule it out?

Also, I talked to a Faroese MP about a year ago and he told me that, even if he was in favor of same-sex marriage, he was skeptical about the polls showing so much support among population. He further added that for those who were OK with it, it was not a major or important issue, but for those against it, it could be decisive when they vote.

1) The Centre Party has a very loyal core electorate, (evangelical sects), they will be guaranteed to get at least one seat and most likely two (not sure what polls you are referring to - the one I posted gave them two).

2) SD has a SoCon wing, so does other SDs (Australian ALP very much so, even British Labour has SoCons). Given that the Faroese party is strong in small settlements in the south, this is hardly surprising.

3) Not sure what you mean with SD voting for the Centre Party. SD may need the Centre Party, and in that case they will postpone gay marriage, but that is hardly "voting for them". If there is a vote people like Dam will just abstain, but that is a rather unlikely scenario. Most likely if SD and Republic forms a government with the Centre Party there will be no vote on gay marriage  (unless Progress uses it to tease the government), and the issue will be off the table for another four years. Republic will have more trouble postponing gay marriage once again, but if working with the Centre Party is their only way of getting something even remotely leftist done on other issues, they will prioritize other issues,

4) SoCons will be very motivated to block gay marriage, but legalizing it is also important for many young people and urban liberals - one tenth of the population participates in the annual gay pride parade to demonstrate their solidarity, so it does matter to some segments - especially young people.
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jmlv
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« Reply #33 on: August 11, 2015, 03:38:12 PM »

Yes sorry, I meant the SD agreeing on a coalition with the Centre Party.

It seems, though, that same-sex marriage is a secondary issue over there, as they would prioritize other matters.

In your opinion, how likely is the scenario of an election result where Republican/SD alone get the 17 seats?
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politicus
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« Reply #34 on: August 11, 2015, 03:56:55 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2015, 04:05:35 PM by politicus »

The tradition on the Faroes is that MPs are free to vote as they please on ethical matters, but this is of course different if you are in government with a party that has an "ethical" issue among its core priorities.

In this case those who disagree with the coalition parther would either abstain or vote blank. And since the Peoples Party and about half the Union Party are against gay marriage, Republic and, say, 3/4 of SD abstaining and a quarter of SD voting against would mean a very clear "No".

What was unusual in the 2014 vote was that KLJ actively ordered UP MPs to vote against the proposal instead of letting them vote blank or abstain. There is no chance Aksel Johannessen could do something similar, but it won't matter.
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jmlv
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« Reply #35 on: August 11, 2015, 04:10:56 PM »

Yes, but my question was more general. I meant whether Republicans and SD, alone, the 1st of September, could get 17 seats in parliament (e.g. 9 for SD, 8 for Republicans), so that alone could form a a government coalition without any other party. How likely could this be?
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politicus
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« Reply #36 on: August 12, 2015, 01:56:20 AM »

In your opinion, how likely is the scenario of an election result where Republican/SD alone get the 17 seats?

Not sure, probably quite low (maybe 15-20%). There was one poll earlier this year giving them a "red majority". Last pre-summer poll and the new one one has Progress riding high, and if they take the protest votes I think the left gets either 15 or 16 seats. Another option is a government including the Home Rule Party. They has been in opposition since 2013 and I still think they will end up getting a seat. They have only ever been out of parliament 1943-46 (with fewer seats back then) and seems always to make it in the end.

Republic - SD - Home Rule getting 17 seats could give a socially liberal coalition and is quite likely. If they get 17 I think those three parties would form new government, even if Home Rule may prefer SD - Home Rule - Union. The Union Party is internally split and SD seems determined to get Republic on board (even though Aksel J. has declined to form a formal Red Coalition as his predecessor Joannes Eidesgaard has suggested and is free to negotiate to the right).
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politicus
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« Reply #37 on: August 12, 2015, 03:17:29 AM »

Turns out there is a formal threshold of 1/33, which is why Home Rule was out in that poll. The party has since added two public figures to their list. Prominent lawyer and ex-MP Bjørn á Heygum + Zakarias Wang, a well known 75 year old author, activist and municipal pol in Torshavn, who left Republic after 48 years, because they have accepted Danish party aid for their votes in the Folketing election (sell outs..). According to Faroese journos this reinforcement should be enough to put them over the threshold.
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jmlv
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« Reply #38 on: August 12, 2015, 03:38:25 AM »

Is not the current MP of the Home Rule Party part of the scandal of the tunnel too?

Still, if they get 16 only with theHomeRule Party, they will need the Centre
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jmlv
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« Reply #39 on: August 12, 2015, 03:58:44 AM »

Do you know when a new poll is released?
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politicus
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« Reply #40 on: August 12, 2015, 04:22:42 AM »

Is not the current MP of the Home Rule Party part of the scandal of the tunnel too?

Still, if they get 16 only with theHomeRule Party, they will need the Centre

Yes, which is why they are polling so low in the first place. Kari Høygaard was Minister of the Interior and responsible for the project. The party is split between coastal craftsmen and fishermen vs. urban academics and other liberal middle class townies, and Høygaard represented the coastal/blue collar wing. The current leader is the Mayor of Klaksvik Jógvan Skorheim, who was elected by a Republic-SD-Home Rule coalition. So he is used to the centre-left combo and as a businessman and townie he is close to the socially liberal academic wing (but even the blue collar types in HR are fairly socially liberal).

Faroese governments are rarely based on simple left/right coalitions, the current government was an exception, and the talk of a red coalition is motivated by a desire to reverse some of the policies of the centre-right government.

I doubt a Republic-SD-Centre-Home Rule government would be likely. Too many parties and too diverse interests. In that case other combos would come into play depending on the seat distribution. If a four party coalition is needed SD-Union-Home Rule-Centre would be the most likely ("Centrists United").
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jmlv
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« Reply #41 on: August 12, 2015, 04:36:38 AM »

So the Home Rule Party changes its leader but not the UP. But of a suicide for the UP, but maybe things work differently in the Faroe.
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politicus
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« Reply #42 on: August 12, 2015, 05:36:49 AM »

So the Home Rule Party changes its leader but not the UP. But of a suicide for the UP, but maybe things work differently in the Faroe.

Høygaard went voluntarily back in April. He is 64 and was chairman 2003-10, but had to return in 2011 after internal infighting threatened to split the party. Having already retired once he was not interested in staying on forever now that they have a suitable replacement. Skorheim is 33, so it is a natural generational change. Skorheim was the leader of their youth org and as a non-academic, non-manual, non-Torshavn townie he is acceptable to both wings.

Things are different in the Union Party, where the obvious successor is far more polarizing. Bardur Nielsen leads the internal opposition and is to the right of Johannessen. He was Minister of Finance 2004-07, when he left for a private sector top job (only to return to politics in 2011). Otherwise he would have been leader now. Johannessen is socially progressive (pro gay marriage, wants to take a fair share of Danish refugees etc.) and he is soft on unionism (to the point of looking like a moderate separatist). Some people liked that, many did not.  The "modernizers" in the party do not want Nielsen and the traditionalists to take over.

Johannesen was under a lot of pressure to resign, but he called the election before his critics had time to mount a challenge.
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jmlv
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« Reply #43 on: August 12, 2015, 07:05:49 AM »

But could personal vote actually give more votes to the traditionalists in the party? Sorry about my ignorance but I do not jnow how the personal vote qorks over there.
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politicus
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« Reply #44 on: August 12, 2015, 08:15:38 AM »

But could personal vote actually give more votes to the traditionalists in the party? Sorry about my ignorance but I do not jnow how the personal vote qorks over there.

Yeah, most votes are personal and a candidates position on the list matters next to nothing, so even though UP has a higher share of list votes (600 last time) than the other parties personal votes will be crucial.

Given that the "scandal" only amounts to offering a private company a break fee of one million Danish kroner (c. 150.000 $) if parliament did not approve a contract and then lying about it, some voters will think it is no big deal and continue to support Johannessen given that he had no personal financial gain from it.

Also, KLJ is a former professional athlete (both soccer goalie and handball player), who was personally popular long before he entered politics and the number of personal votes he gets will be decisive. If he retains most of his large personal vote he might be able to hang on as leader.

Personal votes matters on the Faroes. Fx. in municipal elections the golden rule is whoever gets the most personal votes on the winning list gets to be Mayor. Not the one who happens to top the list.
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politicus
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« Reply #45 on: August 12, 2015, 10:21:39 AM »
« Edited: August 12, 2015, 11:47:34 AM by politicus »

Do you know when a new poll is released?

No idea, only Gallup and local company Fynd poll the Faroes. The poll we got was from Fynd. So I assume Gallup will release one fairly soon.
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politicus
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« Reply #46 on: August 12, 2015, 10:55:36 AM »

Looking at the top 5 of personal votes for the big parties, their party leaders are generally well ahead, with the exception of PP, where Annika Olsen and Jacob Vestergaard were far more popular than the party leader (Niclasen) and parliamentary leader (Mikkelsen), but since Olsen is from Torshavn and Vestergaard from the south, they are not considered suitable leaders by the old guard. Annika Olsen actually tried to become leader after the election, but was blocked by their executive committee.

If Bardur Nielsen gets more personal votes than KLJ that would give him a good basis for a challenge, but KLJ may very well keep a sizeable portion of his personal votes even if the party loses.

Peoples Party: List: 183
Annika Olsen 1.344
Jacob Vestergaard 1.048
Jákup Mikkelsen 455
Jørgen Niclasen 382
Elsebeth Mercedis Gunnleygsdóttur 344


Union Party: List 611
Kaj Leo Johannesen 1.979
Bárður Nielsen 872
Bjørn Kalsø 704
Rósa Samuelsen 480
Alfred Olsen 473


SD: List 295
Aksel V Johannesen 1.204
Kristin Michelsen 393
Gerhard Lognberg344
Rigmor Dam 271
Henrik Old 265

Republic: List 179
Høgni Hoydal 1.054
Kristina Háfoss 451
Bjørt Samuelsen 365
Gunnvør Balle 358
Páll á Reynatúgvu 332
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jmlv
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« Reply #47 on: August 12, 2015, 11:43:56 AM »

It looks complicated. But it seems the case of the tunnel cannot be regarded as corruption but instead a a mistake in the management.

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politicus
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« Reply #48 on: August 12, 2015, 12:10:12 PM »

It looks complicated. But it seems the case of the tunnel cannot be regarded as corruption but instead as a mistake in the management.


It is not corruption, but simply by-passing parliament and lying about it to the MPs afterwards - and then KLJ being stupid and/or arrogant enough to claim he did not lie, but merely gave "incorrect information". The last part is the one the Faroese tend to focus on. It might be worse for KLJ because he had a reputation of being a straight talker and "a little to honest for politics" - but it is hard to say if his personal vote will collapse or merely go down a little.

Høygaard admitted he screwed up and voted for the critique of him and KLJ (which was unanimous). But then he is on his way out of politics anyway.
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jmlv
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« Reply #49 on: August 12, 2015, 02:25:23 PM »

To me, it looks worse the supposed which surrounded Lars Lokke in Denmark.

But those were not proven and he is PM anyway.
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