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  Talk Elections
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  Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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Author Topic: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015  (Read 36937 times)
politicus
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« Reply #400 on: September 20, 2015, 12:34:42 pm »

Only one-two weeks? I would not consider it a while for having same sex marriage.

No, no. One to two weeks before she has the co-sponsors lined up and can submit the bill. Then the standard procedure starts with the Speaker announcing it to the members and them getting the bill send, then a first debate, committee hearing in the Justice Committee with interested parties being heard, second debate, possibly back to committee hearing and then third debate with the actual vote. Because there is this formal announcement by the Speaker before members get the proposal it is actually a four step procedure, where the Danish is a three step.

If it was a pre-agreed government proposal (like Republic and Progress wanted) they could have speeded things up in various ways (skipped the second debate and fast tracked it through committee) and made it a "Christmas present" with all the symbolism attached, but now it will take time - likely with amendments to be discussed etc. Maybe by Valentines Wink, but that is not so big on the Faroes yet.

(unlike you I have never been that interested in when - more whether it was possible to get it done at all. The whole thing has been blocked by all the crosscutting cleavages and "strange bedfellows" coalitions in Faroese politics for years.)
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jmlv
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« Reply #401 on: September 20, 2015, 12:46:03 pm »

I am interested in when because I have never had doubts it will happen, sooner or later.

I am going to be close to my guess about March 2016 I guess.

But dont you agree that UP members may like to wait to define themselves on this big issue until the leadership is clarified?

Of course Sonja may do it even without considering UP at all.
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politicus
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« Reply #402 on: September 20, 2015, 03:28:29 pm »

I am interested in when because I have never had doubts it will happen, sooner or later.

I am going to be close to my guess about March 2016 I guess.

But dont you agree that UP members may like to wait to define themselves on this big issue until the leadership is clarified?

Of course Sonja may do it even without considering UP at all.

It will happen sooner or later - but the interesting thing was whether it happened as a result of this election, or not. And that was far from a sure thing right up to Henrik Old accepted a cabinet position (= him not threatening to quit and one less No vote).

If the vote is before October 24 both Kass Nielsen and KLJ might abstain, not sure why Edmund Joensen didn't want to declare (he is certainly against). Either he felt it was an inappropriate question to an "elder statesman" or - more likely - he has decided to abstain to not split the party and let the younger generation decide. If it is after October 24 all of them are more likely to vote.

You have the two settlement farmers against and the Torshavn academic for - a very classic pattern, and then you have the former, current and likely future leader all declining to tell, despite Edmund Joensen previously being against and KLJ previously being pro. And that is due to the leadership election. I doubt Bardur Nielsen will co-sponsor before October 24, but KLJ doesn't have much to lose - unless he is still toying with running again, as he said he contemplated after he got all the "please stay" calls after the election. Him not declaring on this is an indication he hasn't totally giving up that idea yet.

Another question mark is Kari Højgaard from Home Rule. Despite being against he abstained in 2014 vote, because he was the sole rep for a divided party. Now they are two anti-gay marriage MPs in an equally divided party (60-40 pro as I understand it). So logically Højgaard should abstain (he won't actually vote for it), but he may have changed his mind about this "fairness principle".
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politicus
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« Reply #403 on: September 20, 2015, 03:44:13 pm »

Annika Olsen has left Progress again and gone on leave - she has thereby also relinquished her chairmanship in the Fiscal Committee, so some sort of falling out between her and Michelsen likely. Despite her reluctance to openly declare how she would vote I doubt it is over gay marriage. None of her actions make sense if she is against that.

This means an extra "No" vote and makes things a little trickier. Especially if Olsen decides simply to quit politics (there isn't really anywhere else she can go now).

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jmlv
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« Reply #404 on: September 20, 2015, 04:09:42 pm »

Why do you say en extra no?
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jmlv
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« Reply #405 on: September 20, 2015, 04:37:46 pm »

To me all these movements sounds weird...

Old is kicked up but gay marriage is not part of the agreement...it will be a private bill...Sonja leaves the SD group, (also the party?).

Now without Annika, if I am not wrong, there is a minority government (of course there is SOnja supporting it but not into the group). Problems appear in SD over this issue

Now Annika leaves somewhere. And I agree I do not think over gay marriage so it must be somethinh else going on wit PRogress and her (maybe economic policies)?

In just two weeks, two defections.

Is this really normal up there?
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jmlv
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« Reply #406 on: September 20, 2015, 04:48:23 pm »

And if Annika is on leave, does it mean the assembly works with 32 members?
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politicus
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« Reply #407 on: September 20, 2015, 05:35:24 pm »


Because her substitute is the next on the PP list, and he is a Conservative. So it is 15-12, with 6 undeclared. If 3 decides to abstain and 3 vote against it falls, and that is not completely unrealistic. We are back to uncertainty from "it can not really go wrong".
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politicus
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« Reply #408 on: September 20, 2015, 05:57:39 pm »
« Edited: September 20, 2015, 08:47:38 pm by politicus »

To me all these movements sounds weird...

Old is kicked up but gay marriage is not part of the agreement...it will be a private bill...Sonja leaves the SD group, (also the party?).

They needed to promote one of the three Suduroy MPs and the other two are a Mayor and a Deputy Mayor, who may not be interested in cabinet, but prefer to represent their local constituents as MPs and at the same time stay in local politics. I was actually surprised they offered Jogvansdottir a ministry in the first place, because she is a novice and it would have been a snub to the Suduroy MPs.

Actually not sure if she has left the party, but she will be expelled if she hasn't and stays out of the group. Johannessen has said they would welcome her back. She may rejoin in the end - if gay marriage pass.

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1) There is a minority government, but with a 17-16 majority incl. Jogvansdottir, so save enough. She has said she agrees with the entire government agreement and is fully supportive.

2) Poul Michelsen is a selfmade businessman and pretty dominant. He basically pushed his fellow MP out of the party last term by insisting Janus Rein ran in the municipal election in Torshavn, despite Rein having no interest in local politics. Olsen and Michelsen are two big egos. Perhaps too big for one small party.

3) I posted the list with party defections earlier - there is usually 1-2 in a term, but not so soon. This is very unusual, but the circumstances are also unusual. Their whole party system has been structured along two cleavages: socioeconomic and unionist-separatist. Now social issues comes along as a new cleavage and some people do not fit in in the old parties. But these defections are different: one is a passionate activist, who is a political novice and got surprised how politics works and then acted spontaneously and emotionally. The other is a very ambitious woman, who lost a power struggle and then had her hopes that voters would give her another chance to take over her party shattered.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #409 on: September 20, 2015, 06:23:01 pm »

I've not much to contribute, but I really enjoy every bit of this thread and of the enormous amount of information you provide on this fascinating little country. Thanks for that, politicus!
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jmlv
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« Reply #410 on: September 21, 2015, 04:06:02 am »

And who is replacing Annika?

Good monday. Lets see what brings the Faroese politics this week!
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politicus
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« Reply #411 on: September 21, 2015, 04:22:25 am »


Joen Magnus Rasmussen (49). He is the manager of a fishing factory in a settlement called Leirvik on Eysturoy and was an MP 2011-15, but didn't get reelected.
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jmlv
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« Reply #412 on: September 21, 2015, 09:25:12 am »

Not candidate to go to Progress
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politicus
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« Reply #413 on: September 21, 2015, 11:00:04 am »


Not sure what you mean? He isn't going anywhere, he is a Conservative settlement businessman.

If you are talking about the seat, then Olsen was elected on the PP list. It is their seat, so they get it back if she goes on leave or withdraws.
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jmlv
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« Reply #414 on: September 21, 2015, 02:49:37 pm »

For a moment I thought that the personal vote also played a role in the replacement of MPs who resign.
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politicus
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« Reply #415 on: September 21, 2015, 02:56:10 pm »
« Edited: September 21, 2015, 02:58:39 pm by politicus »

For a moment I thought that the personal vote also played a role in the replacement of MPs who resign.

It does in the sense that the non-elected candidate that got the most votes gets to be the substitute. Rasmussen got the 7th most votes for PP.

Sonja J. made a wriiten commitment to support the government agreement btw. So they have a formal majority behind it again.
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jmlv
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« Reply #416 on: September 21, 2015, 03:21:25 pm »

They are 17 again.

Did she say anything on her gay marriage bill?
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politicus
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« Reply #417 on: September 21, 2015, 05:57:11 pm »
« Edited: September 21, 2015, 05:58:48 pm by politicus »


Did she say anything on her gay marriage bill?

No. She did leave the party btw.

Regarding Annika Olsen she has said two things about why she left Progress:

1) She was under immense pressure and had even been threatened, so she needed time off with her family.

2) She had second thoughts about supporting a government from the side her voters voted against. Whether or not those "second thoughts" came before or after someone had threatened her, she didn't say.

Gay marriage was according to Greenlandic AG Sermitsiaq, which is generally dependable on Faroese stuff, a big factor in her leaving PP, so even if she hasn't declared she must be pro (which is also the only logical thing).

Progress has nominated Ruth Vang, Michelsens substitute as MP, for the chairmanship in the Finance Committee if Olsen doesn't return, but there are no plans to rearrange chairmanships if Olsen stays as an independent - which is a bit weird given the importance of the post, but presumably they like her to stay friendly - even if she is officially "opposition" now.

A faroese friend of mine pointed out that Edmund Joensen is actually listed as an LGBT-hero (no less) on LGBT Føroyars website for eliminating the use of the derogatory term "kynsvillingur" (gender disturbed) in parliament when he has Speaker and changing the public discourse about homosexuality as PM, plus being among the advocates that secured gays got covered by the anti-discrimination paragraph in the penal code. So even if he is a 71 year old settlement politician he is at least not a homophobe and he may have declined to declare because he is seriously thinking about it despite his upbringing and background.  
I only had my impression about him being anti-gay from that radio debate with the youth politicians where the Young Unionist guy mentioned him as anti-gay marriage, but its probably more complicated.
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politicus
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« Reply #418 on: September 21, 2015, 07:21:32 pm »

Checked Sonja J.s facebook and she writes she has already submitted it along with "several other co-sponsors", but no names.

Also, one comment mentioned the obvious: They already voted on a gay marriage bill in 2014, which had been through committee and thoroughly debated, so they can just reuse it. It still has to go through all steps, but some will likely be a formality. It is not put on the calendar yet, but presumably it will soon.
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jmlv
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« Reply #419 on: September 22, 2015, 03:27:48 am »

Why would not SD want it as part of the agreement?
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politicus
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« Reply #420 on: September 22, 2015, 04:01:50 am »

Why would not SD want it as part of the agreement?

Because they were divided and a minority is against it (and other would prefer not having to defend it to their voters as government policy). They also promised to make it a "conscience vote" during the campaign.
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jmlv
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« Reply #421 on: September 22, 2015, 08:07:48 am »

When you say it is not put in the calendar, you mean æthe calendar of the Lagting?
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politicus
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« Reply #422 on: September 22, 2015, 08:26:13 am »

When you say it is not put in the calendar, you mean the calendar of the Lagting?

Yeah (Løgting in Faroese and English, Lagting is the Danish version).
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jmlv
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« Reply #423 on: September 22, 2015, 09:48:00 am »

If she submitted it, this may be done within this year or beginning of the next as latest. (i mean fully done).

The majority in favor seems undisputable.
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politicus
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« Reply #424 on: September 23, 2015, 03:50:54 pm »


The majority in favor seems undisputable.

Well, its 15-12 with 6 unknown. Not really "indisputable", but the odds are good.
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