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  Talk Elections
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  Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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Author Topic: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015  (Read 36911 times)
politicus
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« Reply #325 on: September 08, 2015, 05:04:13 pm »

Is there anything comparable to DF in Faroese politics?

No! They have 0.04% Muslims Wink
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jmlv
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« Reply #326 on: September 08, 2015, 05:14:53 pm »

But they have other foreigners, I assume. Smiley

Not even the CP can be considered something similar to DF.
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politicus
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« Reply #327 on: September 08, 2015, 05:28:56 pm »
« Edited: September 08, 2015, 05:57:38 pm by politicus »

But they have other foreigners, I assume. Smiley

Not even the CP can be considered something similar to DF.

CP are SoCons, which DPP only plays lip service to once in while (they were against gay marriage, though). Their core electorate is totally different from DPPs. PP is much more likely to refuse refugees than CP (because of Christian ethics).

The Faroes do not really have minorities of any size. 97% are ethnically Faroese and almost half of the rest are Danes.

Wiki has the following numbers for people aged 15+ in 2011 and says there were 77 nationalities. "Big" groups in brackets.

Danes 515
Other European countries 433 (Norwegians, Icelanders, Poles)
Asians 147 (Filipinos)
Africans 65 (various refugees)
America 55 (US, Canada)
Russia 23

But basically Islamophobia is the bread and butter of contemporary right wing populism in Western Europe. No Muslims, no right wing populism. Neighbouring Iceland has 8% foreigners, but hardly any Muslims among them,  and their right wing populists poll at 2% combined.
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jmlv
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« Reply #328 on: September 08, 2015, 06:24:29 pm »

An exception is Spain, we have muslims but not right wing populism against them (apart from random picturesque cases like two or three local mayors, but nothing in parliament)
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jmlv
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« Reply #329 on: September 08, 2015, 06:25:45 pm »

In the end, KLJ was ok with refugees
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politicus
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« Reply #330 on: September 08, 2015, 06:36:54 pm »

An exception is Spain, we have muslims but not right wing populism against them (apart from random picturesque cases like two or three local mayors, but nothing in parliament)

The "no Muslims, no right wing populism" rule doesn't necessarily work in reverse.

In the end, KLJ was ok with refugees

Yeah KLJ was always okay with refugees and wanted to do more, but he is a Liberal. Not a right winger.

(not sure why you brought him up?)
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jmlv
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« Reply #331 on: September 08, 2015, 06:39:14 pm »

Because i think u mentioned his approsch to host refugees was quite criticized
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politicus
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« Reply #332 on: September 08, 2015, 06:47:31 pm »

Because i think u mentioned his approsch to host refugees was quite criticized

Yeah, mostly for practical reasons, but no doubt (parts of) PP used those as a smoke screen. But I think the Faroese SDs were genuine in their capacity/facility/knowledge based critique.
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jmlv
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« Reply #333 on: September 09, 2015, 10:10:23 am »

Lets see what happens. It is indeed nice that they want to host people. Of course there may be some problems of facilities in the Faroe Islands, but they are leaving a terrible war. Any lack of facilities will be minor compared to what they experienced in their country.
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politicus
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« Reply #334 on: September 09, 2015, 07:48:53 pm »

We have our first defector!

Annika Olsen from PP, who got the second most votes, has decided to leave the party. She is from Torshavn and basically says there are too many SoCons/Hard Right in the new group. That "despite her good personal election the leaderships policy won the election and Liberal values lost out." Also claims she still believes in the party platform (which says PP is a Liberal, democratic and social party..).

So Annika O. got tired of the right wing hicks... Wonder if she will join Progress? She might even be pro-gay marriage, she is definitely the most likely to be among the PP MPs.

She tried unsuccessfully to get a leadership election and take over in 2011, when she got 3 times as many votes as the party leader Jørgen Niclasen and became #1, but has apparently definitively given up.

PP had 9 seats a month ago, now they have 5. Ouch.
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politicus
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« Reply #335 on: September 09, 2015, 08:17:24 pm »

Olsen was Deputy PM and Minister of Social Services in KLJs government and she lost around a third of her vote from 2011 this time. She was also Minister of Internal Affairs 2008-11 and had some big fights with Republic back then.

In all fairness she is not merely crossed about SoCon influence and pro-established businesses bias, but also wants a municipal reform reducing the municipalities from 30 to 8 and a police reform going from 6 to 3 districts. All this would make it a lot easier to finance independence - and from her POV the settlement people resisting this undermines the partys separatist agenda.

Also in favor of a 4% threshold (something Home Rule obviously hates).
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jmlv
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« Reply #336 on: September 10, 2015, 03:17:34 am »

That is what we call in Spain transfuguismo. Very bad considered.

No wonder the Sd wants a broader coalition, just in case.
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politicus
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« Reply #337 on: September 10, 2015, 03:59:14 am »

Negotiations are now just between Republic, SD and Progress. Party leaders meet today with their groups to consult and inform and will afterwards have what is considered final talks. Faroese media expects the government to be announced tomorrow.

No news on why Home Rule is out. It drowned in all the refugee stories. Likely fishing quotas, though.

Poul Michelsen says Annika Olsen is welcome in Progress, and Faroese journos seems to take it for granted she will jump since she mentioned "Liberal values" (basically an announcement), but she will not get into the government since she would then have to give up her seat to her PP substitute and that would cost Progress (and the coalition) a much needed "safety seat".

So 18-15 most likely. The recount did not move the second Home Rule seat. Home Rule gained 1, Progress 2 and SD 19. If Progress had gained just 10 or SD 30 on Home Rule they could have gotten it. So really close. 9 more to Progress or 12 to SD would have secured the coalition an extra seat.

Republic Youth urges their mother party to secure the Faroes takes boat refugees.
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politicus
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« Reply #338 on: September 10, 2015, 04:06:44 am »
« Edited: September 10, 2015, 05:29:29 am by politicus »

Overview of the 13 party jumpers in the last 19 years.
(Will translate it later, but you can get the general impression. Notice the Republic SoCon policeman Karsten Hansen, who jumped to Centre when Republic started supporting making hate speech against gays a crime.)

2015-unknown:
1. Annika Olsen – PP (to Progress?)
 
2011-15:
2. Gerhard Lognberg – SD to Union. Not reelected.
3. Janus Rein – Progress to PP. Not reelected.
 
2008-11:
4. Poul Michelsen – PP to Progres (which he founded). Reelected.
 
2004-08:
5. Karsten Hansen – Republic to Centre. Reelected.
6. (Heðin Mortensen – Mayor of Torshavn, 1. substitute in the Løgting) - UP to SD. Elected.
 
2002-04:
7. Helena Dam á Neystabø – Home Rule to SD. Not reelected.
 
1998-02:
None
 
1994-1998:
8. Kristian Magnussen – Workers' Union to SD. Reelected.
9. Karl Robert Johansen –Workers' Union to SD. Not reelected.
10. Finnbogi Arge – UP to PP. Not reelected.
 
1990-94:
11. Lasse Klein – Home Rule to Christian People's Party. Reelected.
(went back to Home Rule after CPP was dissolved and is now their party secretary)
12. Tordur Niclasen – Christian People's Party to Centre. Reelected.

1988-90:
None
 
1984-88:
13. Adolf Hansen – Christian People's Party to the Progress Party (which the founded). Not reelected.
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jmlv
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« Reply #339 on: September 10, 2015, 04:49:53 am »

Maybe she starts a new party.

13 is quite a lot for such a small assembly.

Who are the most likely candidates to jump during this term?
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jmlv
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« Reply #340 on: September 10, 2015, 05:05:23 am »

was not Annika Olsen the one who voted in favor of the bill on sexual orientation discriminaiton back in 2006?
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politicus
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« Reply #341 on: September 10, 2015, 05:07:23 am »


Not likely. It would basically be Progress II and the market for separatist centre-right parties is too crowded.

Henrik Old to Centre over gay marriage is the only other potential jumper I can think of. Those who lose the coming UP power struggle may go elsewhere, but I doubt it.
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jmlv
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« Reply #342 on: September 10, 2015, 05:12:41 am »

With those figures same-sex marriage is done.

Even if Old resists a bit.
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jmlv
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« Reply #343 on: September 10, 2015, 05:29:48 am »

But I guess SD will not want Old out as it would be a too pro-independence coalition and SD would no longer be the majority party.
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politicus
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« Reply #344 on: September 10, 2015, 05:34:34 am »

But I guess SD will not want Old out as it would be a too pro-independence coalition and SD would no longer be the majority party.

No, and he is from their "heart land" in Suduroy. If the Sudbury SoCons leave the party would be a lot weaker. Three of their eight seats this time went to Suduroy candidates.

Also, we do not yet know if Bjarni Hammer is against gay marriage (which would mean only 16 government pro-gay marriage votes), but Annika Olsen defecting clearly increase the chances (if she is pro, but hard to imagine otherwise).
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jmlv
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« Reply #345 on: September 10, 2015, 05:36:51 am »

I guess Annika is pro, at least registered partnership.
She can also stay as independent, but even in that case, she would support the movement.
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politicus
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« Reply #346 on: September 10, 2015, 05:47:23 am »

Home Rule actually left the talks this morning. They did it over two things:

1) The others wanted gay marriage to be part of the coalition agreement, while Home Rule wanted a referendum.

2) The others wanted all fishing quotas put on auction, while Home Rule wanted settlement quotas, minimum quotas for established busineseses and several other modifications.

Annika Olsen specifically mentioned the party leadership declining MPs the right to vote their conscience on ethical matters as a major reason for the break (in addition to being the only Liberal left in the group). So she is with 100% certainty pro-gay marriage.

Former Mayor of Runavik, Rodmundur Nielsen, who was a substitute MP 2011-15, but failed to get elected, has also left PP. Interesting if more will follow (not MPs, but local politicians, ex-MPs etc.).
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jmlv
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« Reply #347 on: September 10, 2015, 05:53:17 am »

That means gay marriage is part of the agreement and Old has not opposed.
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politicus
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« Reply #348 on: September 10, 2015, 06:11:42 am »

No, in all likelihood it means they have 17 seats without him (Hammer then being pro). They probably got tempted to get tough with HR when they heard Annika O. had defected.

But also two points that were hard to compromise on:

Full auction of all fishing quotas is the only way to get enough revenue to finance the current welfare state (+some long overdue upgrades and improvements for poors) without raising taxes (and even cutting some) and therefore necessary for a left/right compromise.

And Progress needs gay marriage to signal they are the primary champions of Social Liberalism and they won't risk a referendum. Which would also get very ugly and with international media highlighting the Faroes as a bigoted and backwards place filled with rapid homophobes and vitriolic fire and brimstone preachers. Not the image the leftists and SocLibs want to project.
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jmlv
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« Reply #349 on: September 10, 2015, 06:24:28 am »

Now it is a matter of when.

It may take ages like in Greenland or be faster.
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