Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015

[politicus]

The tradition on the Faroes is that MPs are free to vote as they please on ethical matters, but this is of course different if you are in government with a party that has an "ethical" issue among its core priorities.

In this case those who disagree with the coalition parther would either abstain or vote blank. And since the Peoples Party and about half the Union Party are against gay marriage, Republic and, say, 3/4 of SD abstaining and a quarter of SD voting against would mean a very clear "No".

What was unusual in the 2014 vote was that KLJ actively ordered UP MPs to vote against the proposal instead of letting them vote blank or abstain. There is no chance Aksel Johannessen could do something similar, but it won't matter.

[politicus]

In your opinion, how likely is the scenario of an election result where Republican/SD alone get the 17 seats?

Not sure, probably quite low (maybe 15-20%). There was one poll earlier this year giving them a "red majority". Last pre-summer poll and the new one one has Progress riding high, and if they take the protest votes I think the left gets either 15 or 16 seats. Another option is a government including the Home Rule Party. They has been in opposition since 2013 and I still think they will end up getting a seat. They have only ever been out of parliament 1943-46 (with fewer seats back then) and seems always to make it in the end.

Republic - SD - Home Rule getting 17 seats could give a socially liberal coalition and is quite likely. If they get 17 I think those three parties would form new government, even if Home Rule may prefer SD - Home Rule - Union. The Union Party is internally split and SD seems determined to get Republic on board (even though Aksel J. has declined to form a formal Red Coalition as his predecessor Joannes Eidesgaard has suggested and is free to negotiate to the right).

[politicus]

Turns out there is a formal threshold of 1/33, which is why Home Rule was out in that poll. The party has since added two public figures to their list. Prominent lawyer and ex-MP Bjørn á Heygum + Zakarias Wang, a well known 75 year old author, activist and municipal pol in Torshavn, who left Republic after 48 years, because they have accepted Danish party aid for their votes in the Folketing election (sell outs..). According to Faroese journos this reinforcement should be enough to put them over the threshold.

[politicus]

Is not the current MP of the Home Rule Party part of the scandal of the tunnel too?

Still, if they get 16 only with theHomeRule Party, they will need the Centre

Yes, which is why they are polling so low in the first place. Kari Høygaard was Minister of the Interior and responsible for the project. The party is split between coastal craftsmen and fishermen vs. urban academics and other liberal middle class townies, and Høygaard represented the coastal/blue collar wing. The current leader is the Mayor of Klaksvik Jógvan Skorheim, who was elected by a Republic-SD-Home Rule coalition. So he is used to the centre-left combo and as a businessman and townie he is close to the socially liberal academic wing (but even the blue collar types in HR are fairly socially liberal).

Faroese governments are rarely based on simple left/right coalitions, the current government was an exception, and the talk of a red coalition is motivated by a desire to reverse some of the policies of the centre-right government.

I doubt a Republic-SD-Centre-Home Rule government would be likely. Too many parties and too diverse interests. In that case other combos would come into play depending on the seat distribution. If a four party coalition is needed SD-Union-Home Rule-Centre would be the most likely ("Centrists United").

[politicus]

So the Home Rule Party changes its leader but not the UP. But of a suicide for the UP, but maybe things work differently in the Faroe.

Høygaard went voluntarily back in April. He is 64 and was chairman 2003-10, but had to return in 2011 after internal infighting threatened to split the party. Having already retired once he was not interested in staying on forever now that they have a suitable replacement. Skorheim is 33, so it is a natural generational change. Skorheim was the leader of their youth org and as a non-academic, non-manual, non-Torshavn townie he is acceptable to both wings.

Things are different in the Union Party, where the obvious successor is far more polarizing. Bardur Nielsen leads the internal opposition and is to the right of Johannessen. He was Minister of Finance 2004-07, when he left for a private sector top job (only to return to politics in 2011). Otherwise he would have been leader now. Johannessen is socially progressive (pro gay marriage, wants to take a fair share of Danish refugees etc.) and he is soft on unionism (to the point of looking like a moderate separatist). Some people liked that, many did not.  The "modernizers" in the party do not want Nielsen and the traditionalists to take over.

Johannesen was under a lot of pressure to resign, but he called the election before his critics had time to mount a challenge.

[politicus]

But could personal vote actually give more votes to the traditionalists in the party? Sorry about my ignorance but I do not jnow how the personal vote qorks over there.

Yeah, most votes are personal and a candidates position on the list matters next to nothing, so even though UP has a higher share of list votes (600 last time) than the other parties personal votes will be crucial.

Given that the "scandal" only amounts to offering a private company a break fee of one million Danish kroner (c. 150.000 $) if parliament did not approve a contract and then lying about it, some voters will think it is no big deal and continue to support Johannessen given that he had no personal financial gain from it.

Also, KLJ is a former professional athlete (both soccer goalie and handball player), who was personally popular long before he entered politics and the number of personal votes he gets will be decisive. If he retains most of his large personal vote he might be able to hang on as leader.

Personal votes matters on the Faroes. Fx. in municipal elections the golden rule is whoever gets the most personal votes on the winning list gets to be Mayor. Not the one who happens to top the list.

[politicus]

Do you know when a new poll is released?

No idea, only Gallup and local company Fynd poll the Faroes. The poll we got was from Fynd. So I assume Gallup will release one fairly soon.

[politicus]

Looking at the top 5 of personal votes for the big parties, their party leaders are generally well ahead, with the exception of PP, where Annika Olsen and Jacob Vestergaard were far more popular than the party leader (Niclasen) and parliamentary leader (Mikkelsen), but since Olsen is from Torshavn and Vestergaard from the south, they are not considered suitable leaders by the old guard. Annika Olsen actually tried to become leader after the election, but was blocked by their executive committee.

If Bardur Nielsen gets more personal votes than KLJ that would give him a good basis for a challenge, but KLJ may very well keep a sizeable portion of his personal votes even if the party loses.

Peoples Party: List: 183
Annika Olsen 1.344
Jacob Vestergaard 1.048
Jákup Mikkelsen 455
Jørgen Niclasen 382
Elsebeth Mercedis Gunnleygsdóttur 344


Union Party: List 611
Kaj Leo Johannesen 1.979
Bárður Nielsen 872
Bjørn Kalsø 704
Rósa Samuelsen 480
Alfred Olsen 473


SD: List 295
Aksel V Johannesen 1.204
Kristin Michelsen 393
Gerhard Lognberg344
Rigmor Dam 271
Henrik Old 265

Republic: List 179
Høgni Hoydal 1.054
Kristina Háfoss 451
Bjørt Samuelsen 365
Gunnvør Balle 358
Páll á Reynatúgvu 332

[politicus]

It looks complicated. But it seems the case of the tunnel cannot be regarded as corruption but instead as a mistake in the management.

It is not corruption, but simply by-passing parliament and lying about it to the MPs afterwards - and then KLJ being stupid and/or arrogant enough to claim he did not lie, but merely gave "incorrect information". The last part is the one the Faroese tend to focus on. It might be worse for KLJ because he had a reputation of being a straight talker and "a little to honest for politics" - but it is hard to say if his personal vote will collapse or merely go down a little.

Høygaard admitted he screwed up and voted for the critique of him and KLJ (which was unanimous). But then he is on his way out of politics anyway.

[politicus]

To me, it looks worse the supposed which surrounded Lars Lokke in Denmark.

But those were not proven and he is PM anyway.

An important difference is that Denmark has bloc politics, so LLR could continue even if his party lost. The Faroes have no established blocs, so a partys own strength is decisive.

[politicus]

Also oftenthe right wing vote is underestimated in the polls

Atleast in my country no one votes for the conservatives and then, voila

But the UP is actually not that conservative as the PP

There is no systematic under polling of the centre-right in Faroese polls. It was actually the other way round with the Folketing election, where the left (especially Republic) under polled quite a lot, but got both seats in the end (even though the dynamic is a bit different in Løgting elections, because socio-economic factors play a larger role).

UP is in principle not a Conservative party, but a Liberal, but as all Agrarian-Liberal parties in Scandinavia that means they got some SoCon elements, because rural roots = some cultural conservatism. PP is a very right wing party by Scandinavian standards, in Denmark only Liberal Alliance has a similarly right wing economic policy and no Swedish party would be as right wing as them (at least not one represented in parliament).

[politicus]

How right wing would the PP be in moral terms?
As far asi know, Faroe Islands is more religious than any other Scandinavian country

Yeah, the Faroes is clearly the most socially conservative Nordic country (even though some parts of western Norway and rural Finland are similar).

PP defines itself as build upon Christian values, it is against abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage, gay adoption, "promotion of gay life style" in schools, any legalization of drugs and is generally in favor of traditional family values, so I would consider it quite socially conservative, at least for a Scandinavian party.

This also explains why they wanted the Centre Party as part of the coalition as a supplement to the social liberal Home Rule Party. The other reason was that 17 seats was simply not considered safe enough for a workable majority (at that time they did not know that they would get 1 defector from Progress and 1 from SD).

PP is officially defined as a "liberal, social and democratic party", that is they deny that they are Conservatives.. and when Poul Michelsen broke away it was because he claimed they were hypocritical about both economic and social liberalism and not radical enough on separatism. It is easier to understand the last two claims, than the first, but Michelsen probably mainly hinted on them being in favour of various subsides and tax breaks for Big Fishing and established businesses, which he saw as a threat to free competition.

[politicus]

Taking into account that some seats danced in the last period, I can understand why a coalition wants something more than mere 17 seats. But if the PP has ended in bad terms with UP, which party could they ally with? In case figures matched, would they be able to be allies of the Republic Party,as they both are pro-independence?

The PP, Home Rule, Republic combo is only relevant when there is a chance of moving ahead with the independence agenda, and in the current economic climate with big structural challenges ahead this seems impossible, but you never know.The bad experience from 1998-2004 is still a factor and it is a huge ideological gap to bridge. Republics solution regarding how to make the economy ready for independence (tax the rich, cut subsides, close tax loopholes) is contrary to the interests of PPs core electorate.

I doubt PP will be part of a new government, since SD do not want them and the UP/PP alliance seems in shambles. I guess if Bardur Nielsen takes over UP and the non-Progress centre-right somehow retains a majority that is a possibility, but that seems far fetched.

[politicus]

Do you think that in the current climate, a 17 seats only coalition would be considered strong enough? Even if SD and Republic by themselves alone reach that figure.

Well, there was one deserter from SD to Union in the last term, but I still think they will try if those two parties get a majority. But that looks unlikely now.

New poll from Fynd:

Fólkaflokkurin 18.3 (PP) 6
Sambandsflokkurin 21.1 (Union) 7
Javnaðarflokkurin 21.3 (SD) 7
Nýtt Sjálvstýri 4.2 (Home Rule) 1
Tjóðveldi 17.6 (Republic) 6
Framsókn 11.7 (Progress) 4
Miðflokkurin 5.9 (Centre) 2

Compared to the 2011 election this is:

PP -2
UP -1
Progress +2
SD +1

So only a marginal shift leftwards from one of the most right wing results in decades. It will be a major flop for the Faroese left if this is the result.

[politicus]

Not sure what to make of this. The current coalition only has 15 (and is deeply divided anyway).

Centrists United (SD-Centre-Home Rule-UP) has 17 (rather weak for such a broad coalition).

The reform/anti-old boys network-coalition of Republic, SD and Progress has 17. A Faroese politologist actually mentioned that as one of the likeliest options after the last poll. I am still more skeptical. But it would be interesting.

The poll has an economically right wing majority of PP-UP-Progress on 17, but that is not a workable option.

A lot will depend on wether Poul Michelsen wants to be in government or not.

[politicus]

The campaign so far:

The campaign has generally moved way from Tunnelgate and entered a populist phase where everybody are promising lower taxes for people with low incomes.

The current government introduced a flat tax in 2011 on request from PP, leading to big gains for the wealthy, but now PP wants taxes credits for low income families.  Generally the left wants progressive taxation reintroduced to finance lower taxes for low income people, while the centre-right wants various tax credits or just lower taxes all around (Progress).

The Centre Party is going all in against the gay threat. Party leader Jenis av Rana has compared LGTB activists to Sea Shepherd, and said both organizations try to undermine Faroese society, but while Sea Shepard only bothers the Faroese 2-3 months a years, LGTB activists are a threat all year long and a challenge to Our Lord himself. Jenis av Rani also wants a ban of Gay Pride parade in connection with the national day Ólavsøka and wants the gay pride parade removed from central Torshavn and relocated to an area in Hoyvik on the outskirts of Torshavn. This is the most single issue anti-gay election campaign the Centre Party has ever led. It seems to get them back to 6%, but may backfire among potential coalition partners. Progress or Republic and CP in the same coalition seems even more impossible after this. Home Rule or SD/CP may also be unrealistic.

Fishing quotas: Should they still be handed out for free to people who are or once were fishermen, only for some of them to become multimillionaires by re-selling quotas to others. This practice obviously makes it almost impossible for new people to enter fishing and Faroese straw men buying quotas for foreign companies is a growing problem.

Republic, SD, Home Rule and Progress wants this changed. UP, PP and Centre are pro-status quo. Some in UP wants minor reforms.

(treating fishing quotas as property rights is what caused the Icelandic financial bubble and eventual crash - generally a very stupid idea, but obviously popular among those who benefit)

[politicus]

The current campaign by the Centre Party seems a bit suicidal. The whole reason for the party existing in the first place is that SoCons felled 1) that PP  was only paying lip service to their causes 2)  that they wanted a party positioned in the middle on both the socio-economic and separatist/unionist divide in order to be able to work with both sides to get their demands through. The current anti-gay rage seems to make it impossible for them to work with the left, which makes them kinda meaningless.

Looking at the two polls:

                                  PP       Union       SD     Home Rule    Republic    Progress    Centre
Fynd 20. august 2015   18,3 %   21,1 %   21,3 %   4,2 %   17,6 %   11,7 %   5,9 %
Fynd 6. august 2015   18,6 %   19,0 %   23,0 %   2,9 %   20,2 %   11,6 %   4,7 %

We got PP and Progress being stable, Republic losing quite a bit, partially to Zakarias Wang and Home Rule (a leftist activist claiming they are soft on separatism is an unexpected challenge for them - could be fun if Wang actually gets the Home Rule seat, might ruffle some feathers). Republic lose a bit more in this poll, however. Centre picks up 1,2% from homophobes across the board (PP, Union, SD). Union picks up around 2% ans SD lose almost as much. Faroese politics is still pretty direct campaigning and KJL is an excellent "community hall" campaigner, so he has probably convinced some unionist centrists to swing from SD to Union. It seems the Union Party has put their differences on hold until after the election.  

Of course movements are also more complex in a multiparty system, but this seems like the obvious explanations. The poll may of course also be off, as the Fynds Folketings polls were, but it is easier to poll the Legating with voting patterns being more predictable and weighing therefore easier.

There should be a final Fynd poll on the 27th, I am still hoping Gallup will poll this race once.

[politicus]

The antiGay position seems to increase the Centre Party. Even id it is out of a coalition, would it mean that the other parties would hesitate/delay the issue, at least until next year, if the centre party increases due to thiis issue? Or maybe send it to referendum?

How likely would SD and UP would be to sacrifice gay marriage to ge an agreement with centre?

The progress party seems too neoliberal in economy, isnt it? And that seems a big issue now.

Homophobia increases the Centre vote a bit, but we are talking about an increase of 1-1,5%. So it will not influence the other parties.

Progress is libertarian on economics, but they may be willing to delay that part of their agenda in order to obtain other goals - including a fair tax system and market based quota system. I think centre has gone to far for SD this time, but you never know. UP would definitely be willing to postpone gay marriage, at it is not part of their platform and they are internally divided (so is SD, but with a very clear Yes majority).

[politicus]

I mean, economy seems the big issue. Would a left wing coalition with the Progress Party actually work? You sayyiu are skeptical.

They could make it for, say, 2 years in order to modernise the country on both social issues, taxes/loopholes, subsidies, agricultural law (lots of anachronisms) and fishing quotas. It is difficult to see how Progress obtains their goal of a genuine free market economy, unless they take it in two steps and use the left to get rid of favouritism of vested interests first  before they make the low tax/budget cut stuff with the centre-right. I am just not sure if they are serious or prefer the populist profile and scoring cheap points.

Another social issue is abortion, where the Faroes retained the Danish 1956 law when Denmark (and Greenland) got free abortion in 1973.  This ban is then systematically undermined by liberal doctors giving dispensations. So a peculiar situations, and on Centre could have chosen to mobilize ion instead of using homophobia.

[politicus]

It seems things are dancing a bit, from what you say the tunnel issue is no longer central in the campaign and UP is resisting

Progress seems unstable, but you lll never know. All this Faroese politics seem far too unpredictable.

What about a three big parties coalition?

It has moved steadily to the right from the red majority in early spring, so not sure it is "dancing", there has been a slow recovery in the centre-rights popularity. It is just that many observers had expected Tunnelgate to be a game changer, and it seems not to be.

That there is no direct way to predict which government will be formed even after you got the election results has always been a big part of the charm of Faroese politics for me. Given how many two party and multi party organized as two bloc systems there are (just look how stale Danish politics has become with the Red Bloc/Blue Bloc division) this is rather intriguing.

It is actually more closed this time, because SD is ruling out PP and still hopes to be able to reinstate progressive taxation through some Red Alliance + change-coalition, while the pro-independence option is a bit irrelevant at the moment. so more Left/Right than usual.

SD has ruled out PP quite adamantly and Republic and UP never ally, so there are no "3 of Big 4" combos in play.

[politicus]

Politics makes strange bedmates

When should the new government be formed? two weeks time?

It took 16 days to form the current coalition, but it might take a coupe of weeks longer this time, since it will probably include some of the above mentioned "strange bedfellows".

[politicus]

So that it could even be formed in October. And in the meantime? what happens? Is the current government still running?

Yes. One of the main reasons behind the vote of no confidence attempt was to block KLJ from having first call on forming the next government. If he had been toppled (or resigned), there would have been a caretaker administration and the biggest party would have had first call. Now he has the initiative (which will only matter if UP gets a decent result).

[politicus]

PP now brings the independence issue into the campaign with a proposal that the Faroes enter a free association with Denmark (similar to fx. Micronesia/US or NZ/Cook Islands), where DK only acts on behalf of the Faroes when requested to and all sovereignty rests with the Faroese. This is similar to a Siumut proposal in Greenland. They want bilateral negotiations and a referendum on the result.

Republic brings up their former proposal of a 2016 referendum on outright independence.

Current positions:

Home Rule: Gradual takeover of areas whenever the Faroes can afford it resulting in full independence at some point down in the future.

SD: Suppports a Faroese constitution and less dependency, but not independence "right now". Almost separatist at this point, but likely not in practice.

UP: Going back towards old school unionism, wants more Danish investments in Faroese healthcare.

Centre: Irrelevant discussion. No opinion.

Progress: Positive towards Republics suggestion of a fast track to independence.

PP has kept a low profile on independence for a long time, but them bringing this up now increases the likelihood of a PP-Progress-Republic coalition. Republic seems always to give in on the socio-economic stuff if they can get closer to independence. Still, it is hard to see them agree on the path with the right wingers.

SD is clearly trying to appear sufficiently willing to advance Faroese sovereignty to keep Republic tied to them.

[politicus]

New poll from Fynd today. Progress is losing ground to PP. May be the free association proposal, or (more likely) the talk about Progress allying with the left. UP down a bit. Their decline gives a cheap second seat to Home Rule. Centre on 6,7%. Difference to last poll in brackets.

PP 20,8 7 (+2,5)
UP 19,6 6 (-1,5)
SD 21,3 7 (-)
Home Rule 4,9 2 (+0,7)
Republic 18,0 6 (+0,4)   
Progress 8,7 3 (-3,0)
Centre 6,7 2 (+0,8)

[politicus]

Current government 15
Republic, SD, Home Rule (or Centre for that matter) 15
Republic, SD, Progress 16. Add Home Rule and you get 18 (only option that gives gay marriage)
Centrists United on 17
Independence now! (Republic, Progress, PP) on 16

This would be a really messy result given that anything involving Progress/Centre seems impossible and Progress/Union a stretch (and PP, UP, Progress is only at 16 anyway). Not sure Progress dares to ally with the centre-left if they get a mediocre result. Although Republic, SD, Home Rule and Progress might agree on a Faroese constitution and "a leap forward" on sovereignty (taking over all they can under the 2005 agreement). Centrists United may be tempting for the two Johannesens, but if one of the two Home Rulers is Zakarias Wang, that option is out.