Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015

[politicus]

Is SD-UP completely out?

That is only 14 seats and Republic would never govern with UP. It would not have a majority with one of the three small centre-right parties, so you would need two of them (and Centre/Progress is a no go). Progress would generally be uninterested in this centrist/unionist combo. So you would be stuck with a cumbersome SD-Centre-Home Rule-UP quartet ("centrists united") wit the risk of the of the small parties dropping out along the way ascot happened with the current government.

It also gives SD neither fishing quota reform, nor progressive taxation. So rather pointless for them.

Only good for improving healthcare. Could become more attractive if UP could be persuaded to reintroduce progressive taxation, but that would leave them open to attack from the right.

Generally, why should SD want this, when they can get some actual reforms and modernize Faroese society together with Republic and either Progress (big reforms) or Home Rule (small reforms).

That said KLJ has the initiative and he will almost certainly offer to join Aksel Johannesen in a "centrists united" as being in government would make it much easier for him to hang on to the leadership.

[politicus]

How likely is gay marriage at this point?

Fairly likely, but that depends entirely on which coalition that gets established and (especially) if there are other SoCons besides Henrik Old among the elected SD MPs.

[politicus]

Don't they have less to do with the EU than any other overseas territory of an EU member state?

They have common mackerel and herring quotas with EU and Norway, so you could surely find some islands somewhere that had less to do with the union.

Cooperation is based on a Fisheries Agreement from 1977 and a Free Trade Agreement from 1991. They are not in Schengen.

Fishing quotas is the major bone of contention and 2013-14 EU actually sanctioned the Faroes because they fished too many mackerells and herrings, so DK near the end of the conflict had to  boycott a part of our state (which is ridiculous). Like not allowing Faroese ships to buy provisions in Danish harbours etc.

[politicus]

Are Danish gay marriages recognized in Faroe?

Dunno. I found a 2 year old article about it on LGTB Denmarks web page where they said both Danish and Faroese authorities had stalled them and sent them running in circles in a "Kafkasque" process and declined to give an answer to even basic questions such as whether the marriages are legally recognized, whether a child adopted by a spouse in such a marriage only has one parent if the family moves to the Faroes, and if a person in a Danish gay marriage commits bigami if he/she enters into a straight marriage on the Faroes. So a mess back then.

The thing is no Danish gays moves to the Faroes (for obvious reasons), and hardly any Faroese gays return to the islands once they have moved to Denmark (= Copenhagen if you are gay). So it is a bit of a theoretical question and I doubt there has ever been an actual test case. So I am not sure whether it has been clarified.

I know Danish gay marriages (and registered partnerships before them) are recognized in Greenland, but then Greenlanders never had a problem with gay marriage in the first place.

[politicus]

No one knows if gay marriage is recognized in the Faroe Islands simply because no couple ever brought a case before the courts. And that is the Courts which correspond to do so.

Not necessarily. The Danish Realm is not a common law area where you need precedence from a court ruling to determine such things.

In principle the relevant authorities in the Faroes should just say how they are going to interpret the law when asked (and would have discussed such matters with the Danish Ministry of Justice after gay marriage was introduced in Denmark). That is what LGTB Denmark expected when they asked - and how it would be with other laws. Nobody knows because there is a political interest in keeping this question unanswered until there is a case.

(and still, there may by now be an answer, which is just not published online)

[politicus]

Finally our French friend was right: Republic is doing better than expected.

Nah, he said they would top the poll. They are fourth.

Well they end up 2nd, and overperforming the latest polling by 2-3 points, but still, I admit I was wrong. It's just I had seen them overperforming nicely in the Danish generals, and I reckoned it could end up the same, but SD overperformed even more !

Let's see how the government making process goes for my second prediction!

Republic only over performed Gallup by 1.4%, which was within the margin of error in the poll.

Regarding the Danish general elections - as I have pointed out many times in this thread - the dynamic is quite different with bread and butter issues at stake. In a Folketing election you got right wingers who would normally vote PP going Republic because they are the most principled nationalists and they like their tough talk, small party voters drifting to the big ones, young Libertarian business school students voting for the SD MP because he does standup and hosts a radio show and they think he is cool and such things. Voters float a lot more because the Faroese do not care about the Folketing, but still feel obliged to vote. It is low info voting based on feelings.

Løgting elections are high info voting after a lot of face to face contact with candidates and mostly based on socioeconomic interest. People vote their vallet. So the reasons the left did better in this are not the same as in a Folketing election. I think the anti-government (pro progressive taxes/anti free quotas to big fishing and lucky bastards) vote remained fairly strong all the time and Fynd simply had the wrong weighing in their polls. Gallup had all other parties than Progress and SD within the margin of error in their more "lefty" poll. And SD over performed with 2.2%, which was only slightly above the margin of error.

Gallup was actually decent (if to exactly great) except for "over polling" Progress and I think they were right about them at the time of polling. Progress collapsed in the last two days because of all the talk about bloc politics and how they would prop up a leftist government.

[politicus]

Regarding gay marriage it is worth noticing that the second spot on the SD list went to newcomer Sonja Jógvansdóttir with 1020 votes.

She is the first openly gay person to become an MP (her spouse is former Minister of Culture Annlis Bjarkhammar from Republic, but she was never an MP).

Apart from better living conditions for poor families her main campaign theme was gay marriage, so voters giving her such a strong mandate is a clear signal and given how much the Faroese care about personal votes I think it will have an influence. With her and Rigmor Dam in the SD group Aksel Johannesen will be under a strong pressure to choose a coalition that secures gay marriage or at least registered partnership.

[politicus]

Very naive move for him that of KLJ called earlier elections.

Why? It was his only chance. The election was due within a few months anyway and if he had waited he would have lost control of his own party, which would have become fragmented and torn apart in internal infighting, and meanwhile Tunnelgate would have been kept alive and dominated the media. This way he kept the party together, quickly eliminated Tunnelgate as a campaign issue and ended up getting the second best personal result ahead of Bardur Nielsen. He also got to keep the initiative as PM. If internal pressure had forced him to resign as party leader the party would also have lost the PM post (PP would not have accepted another UP PM in this situation - too big a giveaway) and lost the initiative in the government forming process. There was simply nothing to be gained by waiting.

[politicus]

Well, I asked a Faroese friend about SoCons in SD. She says that apart from Henrik Old only Bjarni Hammer might be against gay marriage, but she is unsure. The other six are pro. So either 6-2 or 7-1.

Unfortunately both the Home Rule MPs are against. Apart from Højgaard (who abstained in the 2014 vote), Skorheim is also against (I got that wrong, but since he is the Mayor of conservative Klaksvik it makes sense. So even if the party is majority pro-gay rights it has elected two opponents. Both the present and former chairman being against has to do with the balance between the blue collar/settlement wing and the urban/academic wing. Højgaard is blue collar (sailor and then small town postmaster) and Skorheim, who was a compromise candidate as chairman, is then on the SoCon side on this issue.

There will be a recount because Progress is only about 30 votes away from getting a seat from Home Rule, and this could then be important.

My friend is an SD so she doesn't follow UP politics, but she would ask around about the UP MPs.

It looks like only Republic-SD-Progress will get a gay marriage majority in parliament. But maybe Home Rule can be persuaded to call a referendum on it ( there should be a solid 60%+ majority among voters, so that would be just as good). They are not as hardcore opponents as PP and Centre and would likely prefer not to vote against a majority in their own party on this.

[politicus]

As expected KLJ will try to form a government.

Aksel Johannesen says his preferred coalition includes all four opposition parties (Republic-SD-Home Rule-Progress), which would have 19 seats and be more solid than a 17 seat three party government.

[politicus]

I have no doubt that it will be approved, with this result.

Well technically they do not have a pro-gay majority on their own.

Republic 7
non-SoCon SD 6-7
Progress 2

That is either 15 or 16. If they want Home Rule on board and they demands it off the table to enter government or Henrik Old threatens to leave if they do it they may have to drop it.

Both things are unlikely. Home Rule is divided and Højgaard abstained in 2014, so he is hardly a hardcore SoCon + Skorheim may mostly be against for opportunistic reasons given his conservative voter base, but you can not rule it out. Henrik Old could switch to UP if they tried to push a vote on it (another SoCon SD went to UP a couple of years back, although for different reasons). It would not be that great a risk as he is a settlement politician relying on personal votes more than party label, approving gay marriage would be more risky for him.

It all depends on how strongly Højgaard, Skorheim, Old and possibly Hammer feel about this and we can only guess about that.

[politicus]

How long can they be trying to decide what government is formed?

is there a deadline to form the new government or to KLJ keep trying?

There is no deadline as such. He starts out consulting with the parties, and if a majority declines to support him he has to give the opportunity to the leader of the largest party. If Republic, SD and progress simply says no he will have to

There is no tradition for stalling, if SD refuses to negotiate it is over, but they will likely talk with him. It is a political culture with focus on being polite and orderly, following procedure etc. (in the usual dull, rational and non-melodramatic Scandinavian style ).

[politicus]

It seems KLJ has resigned as PM and tomorrow the leader of SD will be appointed to start negotiations or that's what I have been told.

Yeah, that's right. "Løgmaður leggur kongin", "the Lawman lies down the Crown" as their public broadcaster Kringvarp chose to frame it.

[politicus]

There will be a party leader round tomorrow where the Speaker will interview the party leaders about their preferences, but there is no doubt Aksel Johannessen will then get a mandate to try forming a government.

The main reason KLJ gave up so quickly is that there was a challenge to his leadership of UP from the other MPs right away. So he was simply not in a position to fight on.

AFAIK he has not resigned as UP chairman yet, but he is de facto dethroned.

[politicus]

And now? if a divided party, any chances SD looks at them?

It seems most likely SD-R-Progress. But will Progress go with the left?

I doubt UP is in shape to enter a government, they will have to sort out their party hierarchy first. I would be really surprised if they are part of the new coalition. It is S-R-HR or S-R-Progress or S-R-HR-Progress we are talking about.

Even disregarding that a UP-SD coalition would need to include Centre (since PP, Progress and Republic would be out) and SD/Centre is a no go with both an openly gay MP and Rigmor Dam + the two other female SDs are also very socially liberal. There is no need to consider Centrists United now. It was only relevant if more SoCon (or at least less SoLib) SDs had been elected.

[politicus]

That Progress Party sounds to me like Liberal Alliance in the Danish context

Yes, they are very much alike. Soft Libertarians, who are willing to compromise and pursue their agenda step by step. There is just the added element of separatism and then the fact that they operate in a much more socially conservative country, which gives them different priorities.

Also, just Progress. No Party (flokkurin), that is old fashioned in the Faroes. The Republican Party is now Republic, The Home Rule Party is New Self-Government and then there is Progress.

PP can hardly become Peoples (or People), but maybe we will see the others rebranded as Equality (SDs Faroese name means the Equality Party), Union and Centre.

[politicus]

Can still be claimed that the FO is more socially conservative with Sonja J. the third in votes?

It looks like FO went to bed in a convent and woke up in London Soho.

Nah, they are just slowly catching up to the rest of Scandinavia. There are several gay MPs in the other Scandinavian countries and we even have a gay chairman for our Conservatives. There are parts of Western Norway and rural Finland that are as SoCon as the Faroes, but not in Denmark.

At the moment we have two gay party leaders and one gay deputy leader, plus one bisexual deputy leader in our nine parties with representation in Parliament, so LGBT people are actually over represented at the top of Danish politics. It will take decades before a Conservative Faroese party gets a gay leader or even MP.

[politicus]

A question: once they decide to form a coalition, either with HR or Progress, are they also obliged to announce a joint manifesto with the main points of their agreement tod evelop in the 4 years time? Or they will simply announce they will govern together?

Just that they will govern together. They will almost certainly agree on an agenda for the government and announce the main points to the public, but they are not obliged to.

[politicus]

I know you do not completely agree but I think KLJ played badly and led his party to a disaster. IF he was out, they would have another leader to do better. And I do not think this is good for him either, because he is out of everything.

It's called taking a chance.

The alternatives were worse and it could have paid off, the fact it didn't doesn't mean it was the wrong move. It might have been selfishly motivated, but it was unlikely the party could have agreed on an another leader so if he had left it would have meant a nasty and divisive power struggle right before an election. Now they have the personal votes to go by, which is often how the Faroese decide leadership contests (in municipal elections they usually simply appoint whoever got the most votes Mayor regardless of who was on top of the list).

Their last election was unusually good, so they were bound to lose some votes and the present result is not a disaster by any means. They are still one of the Big 4 in Faroese politics and will be back.

[politicus]

Is that an Assembly that meets often? I heard (dont know if it is right) that in Greenland they do not meet that often (maybe because of the distances, I do not know).

Yeah, doing constituency work in Greenland sometimes takes a bit of time and would be too costly if they had to go back to Nuuk all the time.

Dunno about the Løgting actually, but would expect them to meet up fairly regularly. They have a lot of responsibility (being close to running their own little nation state) + distances are short and flights rarely gets cancelled - even in the winter. It is not an extreme climate like Greenland.

[politicus]

Here in Spain there are periods where Parliament do not meet (summer, part of december and january). Otherwise they usually meet.

The legislative process takes long though (first things have to go to commission, then to plenary). I am not sure how these 33 folks work.

In a Spanish city like Madrid or Barcelona they have plenary sessions every month. But of course they are municipalities.

PD: do you think that AJ wants a broader coalition not only because 17 is too tight but also because they are not so confident of Progress Party? Maybe it is me, but I still see it a strange mix.

Probably, but it is also about mavericks in SD. Gerhard Lognberg deserted to UP in this period due to disagreement about a tunnel project (it is the Faroes after all ), and there are both a the Mayor of Torshavn Heðin Mortensen (who was in UP 1988–2004) and Henrik Old, which may both be a risk when they have to make compromises with "strange bedfellows". If they are worried about Progress it is more likely they will just agree with them on a 2 year reform government - do their stuff on the areas they agree on, and then call a new election.

(actually there are two Mayors since Kristin Michelsen from Tvøroyrar kommuna also got elected - together with her deputy Bjarni Hammer, but that is the place on Suduroy where SD polled 57%+ and being on the SD list matters down there, so no worries about them defecting)

Home Rule defecting is actually a bigger risk than Progress since they are centrists and can easily swing to the other side, while Progress can not work with Centre.

All in all, after two MPs switched party in the last term having a buffer would be nice for Aksel Johannesen.

[politicus]

But also looking at things from Progress side, it may be true in the end that flirting with the left hitted them. They were overpolled (I think from all parties they were the most overpolled). They were constantly in 4 or 3-4 MP and they got 2 (there is a third awaiting a recount but still...)

In politics it is not just that you agree on some things and you just develop them for a period of time. Always new problems arise and new things to take into account, and in some matters the left/right economic divide may be relevant (we should not forget they come from the PP)

HR may me more unstable but they seem to be OK with almost everything to stay in.

Of course, if they ever needed any help in left-wing economic matters, they could still try to do geometrical vote in the assembly and try to get the support of CP in economic issues. But if the ruling coalition approves same-sex marriage or abortion CP will not tell them even "hello".

By the way, I read somewhere there were also big issues with the Sirian refugees, is that actually that problematic?

I doubt Progress was under polled. I think they collapsed in the final days due to media reports about the "bloc politics".

But I think you underestimate just how much Faroese society needs to be modernized in many ways and how much a tightly woven elite of owners of big trawlers and fishing companies control the economy, which is what the leftists and Progress agree on being against. Also, the two Progress MPs are the two founders of the party, and they have more freedom of moving the party than others would have had. It is basically their party.

Anyway, it is pointless to discuss which coalition might be formed, we will soon know. My point is just that the Faroes is a special place and things that do not make sense in the rest of Europe might make sense in this particular context.

About Syrian refugees: A Danish historian named Lars Hovbakke Sørensen has gotten a bit of media attention by saying it would determine the election that KLJ had said they should take 1% of Danish refugees back in his New Year speech, but my Faroese contact says it was hardly debated in the campaign.

The proposal was quickly shot down because they lack social workers, various medical facilities and people knowledgable about treatment of torture victims etc. and because many of their municipalities are tiny. They could of course set up refugee camps, but that is not how Danish refugee politics work. SD was critical about the proposal and Hovbakke Sørensen saw it as "exciting" that the centre-right wanted refugees, but the centre-left was against, but it was mostly a matter of facilities and practical stuff. Not SD xenophobia.

It is logical for a unionist to want to contribute to solving the unions refugee burden, while the separatists want control over immigration policy for ideological reasons. So the separatists - incl. Republic and PP - were also against KLJs plan.

[politicus]

Also, besides the 2 guys who left SD, there was one guy who left Progress.

(indeed, it can be I am generally skeptical of these Liberal Alliance free market folks)

There were only two defectors. 1 guy left SD for UP and 1 Progress for PP. 

[politicus]

Yes indeed, there were only two. But previously the Progress Party is also a split of PP and I am not sure if they actually splitted during the previous term 2008-2011. And anything can happen with HR.

What is the economic situation in FO now? There was a huge crisis in the 1990s.

Pretty decent, it is the long term structural problems with an aging population, migration to Denmark (especially young women)/students never returning, combined with necessary investments in the public sector infrastructure that is the problem. And if sea based fish farming, which is very lucrative, can continue at current rate without polluting too much. So more sustainability than cash problems here and now - and then the dream of financing independence for some.

Progress split from PP in March 2011 and the election was in October. It was just Poul Michelsen and Hanna Jensen, some people from PPs youth org HUAX and a few others that left, many of their members are new people not previously engaged in politics. The former chairman of Home Rule Sámal Petur í Grund also switched to Progress.

[politicus]

Maps of party strength:

http://kvf.fo/greinar/2015/09/02/si-foroyakortini-soleidis-atkvoddu-foroyingar#.VegZ_7TxlsM

Red = highest
Blue = lowest