Preliminary 2016 Senate Race Rankings - No Tossups

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

Nearly every incumbent holds their own in early polls.

Then why are we quick to call them gonners? I get that their states are left leaning, but Heitkamp won when her state went overwhelmingly red? Or why did Brown only lose by high singles when MA went overwhelmingly blue? I'm pretty sure Toomey and Kirk are what loons would call RINOs, so moderacy is no issue. And who is to say that those early polls aren't genuine strength?

We call Johnson a goner because he has been trailing significantly in early polling with a Feingold rematch. And everyone saw how Presidential year Wisconsin came home to Baldwin in 2012.

The only moderate cred Toomey has is SSM and Manchin-Toomey, which won't mean anything by 2016. He won by 3 points in a midterm year. Take Landrieu, an incumbent in an unfriendly state who was polling +10 through all of 2013 in a head to head with Cassidy. I think PPP had Toomey trailing Kane, and barely ahead of Sestak. Pennsylvania should go Democratic by 5-7 points in 2016, so I'd expect Toomey to lose by 3-5.

I don't think any polling has really been done on Kirk 2016 except the PPP back in 2013 showing him tied with Madigan. He eeked out a less than 2 point win in 2010. Don't expect Cook County to let that happen again. A tied race this far out is not holding your own in early polls.

To be fair, everyone thought Berg would win in 2012. He proved to be a crappy candidate, and Heitkamp barely scraped by.

Of course Obama was going to run ahead of Brown in MA. The Dem (can we just say Hillary now?) will win by a larger margin than Kirk, Johnson, Toomey, and probably Ayotte, even though all four of those candidates may very well win their races still. I believe the technical term is "muh incumbency."

[Free Bird]

Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

Nearly every incumbent holds their own in early polls.

Then why are we quick to call them gonners? I get that their states are left leaning, but Heitkamp won when her state went overwhelmingly red? Or why did Brown only lose by high singles when MA went overwhelmingly blue? I'm pretty sure Toomey and Kirk are what loons would call RINOs, so moderacy is no issue. And who is to say that those early polls aren't genuine strength?

We call Johnson a goner because he has been trailing significantly in early polling with a Feingold rematch. And everyone saw how Presidential year Wisconsin came home to Baldwin in 2012.

The only moderate cred Toomey has is SSM and Manchin-Toomey, which won't mean anything by 2016. He won by 3 points in a midterm year. Take Landrieu, an incumbent in an unfriendly state who was polling +10 through all of 2013 in a head to head with Cassidy. I think PPP had Toomey trailing Kane, and barely ahead of Sestak. Pennsylvania should go Democratic by 5-7 points in 2016, so I'd expect Toomey to lose by 3-5.

I don't think any polling has really been done on Kirk 2016 except the PPP back in 2013 showing him tied with Madigan. He eeked out a less than 2 point win in 2010. Don't expect Cook County to let that happen again. A tied race this far out is not holding your own in early polls.

To be fair, everyone thought Berg would win in 2012. He proved to be a crappy candidate, and Heitkamp barely scraped by.

Of course Obama was going to run ahead of Brown in MA. The Dem (can we just say Hillary now?) will win by a larger margin than Kirk, Johnson, Toomey, and probably Ayotte, even though all four of those candidates may very well win their races still. I believe the technical term is "muh incumbency."

Here's the thing. If Feingold ran and the GOP had a seat to spare, then welcome back. Otherwise, I think Johnson can hang on. However, I think that the Dems will pour a lot of money into Nevada, diluting attention away from everywhere else. And no, we can't say Hillary. At least wait for an announcement, because we will look really stupid otherwise.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Here's the thing. If Feingold ran and the GOP had a seat to spare, then welcome back. Otherwise, I think Johnson can hang on. However, I think that the Dems will pour a lot of money into Nevada, diluting attention away from everywhere else. And no, we can't say Hillary. At least wait for an announcement, because we will look really stupid otherwise.

Tammy Baldwin was just a random Dem in the WI delegation when she ran against Thompson, who was undoubtably a better candidate than Johnson. If Kind runs, it should shape up to be like 2012 in terms of numbers. Republicans haven't won a senate seat in a presidential year in Wisconsin since 1980. Whether it's Feingold or Kind, Johnson likely loses.

I think Reid will hold on, you think Johnson will hold on. This is where we laugh, accuse each other of being hacks, and move on.

[Maxwell]

No Tossups? Illinois, Wisconsin, and Nevada flip, so D+1. I could definitely see Florida, Colorado, Missouri, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania on the table, but are probably all favored for the incumbents.

[Free Bird]

The question is, who will be the new Candy Desk Man if Kirk loses?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The question is, who will be the new Candy Desk Man if Kirk loses?

It's on the Republican side in the back row on the first aisle?

Probably a first termer that gets elected either this year or in 2016 will move in.

[Free Bird]

The question is, who will be the new Candy Desk Man if Kirk loses?

It's on the Republican side in the back row on the first aisle?

Probably a first termer that gets elected either this year or in 2016 will move in.

Is there any good candy from Nevada?

[IceSpear]

Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

Specter was an established moderate incumbent who was very popular among centrists, some Democrats, and old school Republicans in the Southeast which have started to vote Democratic in federal elections. In 2004, the only reason his opponent even ran was in case Specter lost the primary to Toomey (think Joe Donnelly in 2012 or Travis Childers this year). Toomey is in his first term that he won by the skin of his teeth in a massive GOP wave, and he'll likely be facing the same opponent. I'm not counting him out by any means, I'd put the race as a toss up if that were a possibility in this thread, but I think Hillary likely outperforming Obama in the state combined with Sestak's abilities as a candidate will be enough to take him down.

As for early polls, everyone was putting AR/LA as lean D based off them back in 2013. NC looked almost safe D. Then the deluge of ads hammered them, and you know the rest of the story.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

As for early polls, everyone was putting AR/LA as lean D based off them back in 2013. NC looked almost safe D. Then the deluge of ads hammered them, and you know the rest of the story.

Just check out how cute this map was from a year ago...

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm going to include the Gubernatorial Elections here as well, since it's an off year for those.

UtahSafe R

Even if Jim Matheson runs or incumbent Gary Herbert is beaten in the GOP primary (Outgoing State House Speaker Rebecca Lockhart, or former Governor/Ambassador Jon Huntsman come to mind) the Democrats can't win statewide here.

New Hampshire Likely D

If Maggie Hassan runs for re-election, she's a lock, and if she goes for a tempting Senate Race, Democrats start favored.

VermontSafe D
Unless an act of God happens to Peter Shumlin, he will win re-election.

IndianaLean R
While Mike Pence may run for President, this seat is safe for him if he doesn't, and if he does, Democrats (Hammond Mayor, Thomas McDermott Jr, Gary Mayor Karen-Wilson Freeman and Congressman Andre Carson come to mind) start in a weaker position than the GOP (Congresswoman Jackie Walorski, House Speaker Brian Bosma, or Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellsperman would all become possible candidates)

North DakotaSafe R
The only way this race becomes competitive is if Heidi Heitkamp runs for the Democrats. Even then it likely won't be enough

North Carolina Tilt D
While Pat McCrory certainly can (and should) win with President Obama not on the ballot, he faces several strong opponents (Roy Cooper, Anthony Foxx and Charles Meeker)

Washington Likely D
If Jay Inslee retires (He'll be 65 in 2016) that leaves the door ajar for Republicans, who do have a decent bench here (Jamie Herrera Buetler, Cathy McMorris Rodgers and State Senator Steve Litzow).

Montana Tilt R
Montana in a Presidential year is more likely to go Republican no matter who is atop the ballot. Still, this is the closest to a tossup the Governors races will get.

West Virginia (Earl Ray Tomblin Term-Limited) Safe R
West Virginia has turned Republican quite rapidly, and Democrats have to pray that Joe Manchin doesn't run for old job.

Missouri (Nixon Term-Limited) Lean R
If Claire McCaskill runs, the Democrats probably win, but anyone else gives the GOP a big head start.

Delaware (Markell Term-Limited) Safe D
I think it's safe to say Beau Biden deciding he would run sealed it.

Senate Races

Alabama Safe R
I'll be surprised if Shelby even draws an opponent

Alaska Lean R
The Democrats best chance is if Murkowski runs (or Sarah Palin somehow winds up as the nominee), and it's a three-way race like in 2010, but their best hope of having another Senate seat here will likely be to convince Murkowski to switch parties.

Arizona Tilt D
If John McCain runs, Democrats win, If he doesn't (which is more likely) it's basically a tossup (assuming Democrats are able to recruit Richard Carmona or Kyrsten Simena)

Arkansas Safe R
Even if Mike Bebee runs (which he won't), this will be a rout.

California Safe D
Boxer's retirement will set off a free-for-all on the Democratic side of the race, so don't expect a Republican in the top-two this time.

Colorado Lean D
Michael Bennett easily could, be vulnerable, but the GOP bench in Colorado is non-existent.

Connecticut Lean D
See Colorado

Florida Tilt D
If Marco Rubio runs for President, this seat is as good as gone, while if he runs for re-election, he will face a tough opponent in the General Election (and possibly Allen West in the primary)

Georgia Lean R
Democrats will put up fight against Johnny Isakson, but a Presidential year, with a perennial Republican boogeyman atop the ballot in Hillary Clinton should save Isakson here.

Hawaii Safe D
Unless Colleen Hanabusa runs again, there will be nothing interesting about this race

Idaho Safe R
It doesn't matter if the Republicans put up incumbent Mike Crapo, Sasquatch or Charles Manson, they will win this race.

Illinois Likely D
This seat is probably gone with Senator Kirk running, and if he retires it's definitely gone.

Iowa Safe R
Assuming Senator Grassley does in fact, run for re-election, he will win.

Kansas Safe R
Despite what this year is showing, Kansas is still a very Republican state.

Kentucky Likely R
While Rand Paul may run for President, it won't matter much here (other the Republican Candidate's margin of victory)

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D

Missouri Likely R
Governor Nixon deciding not run made things much easier for Republicans (though with the chaos in Ferguson, he would have started in a hole in any hypothetical primary anyways)

Nevada Likely D
Senator Reid may not have to meddle at all in the GOP race this time, as the front-runner Brian Sandoval's semi-pro choice view-points (he was rated 50% by NARAL in 2013) would be a non-starter in a primary

New Hampshire Tilt D
If Governor Hassan runs, she wins, if not Senator Ayotte, should win re-election, if less comfortably than 2010.

New York Safe D

North Carolina Safe R


North Dakota Safe R

Ohio Tilt R
If Rob Portman runs for re-election, he wins easily. If he runs for President, this race is a pure tossup, and if he's selected VP in the middle of the campaign...all bets are off.

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Tilt R
If there was a Senate race to put at tossup, this would be it.

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R

Utah Safe R
See Utah Governor's race

Vermont Safe D

Washington Safe D

Wisconsin Likely D
Senator Johnson and Senator Kirk are the two most likely incumbents to fall for either party.

[Free Bird]

I'm going to include the Gubernatorial Elections here as well, since it's an off year for those.

UtahSafe R

Even if Jim Matheson runs or incumbent Gary Herbert is beaten in the GOP primary (Outgoing State House Speaker Rebecca Lockhart, or former Governor/Ambassador Jon Huntsman come to mind) the Democrats can't win statewide here.

New Hampshire Likely D

If Maggie Hassan runs for re-election, she's a lock, and if she goes for a tempting Senate Race, Democrats start favored.

VermontSafe D
Unless an act of God happens to Peter Shumlin, he will win re-election.

IndianaLean R
While Mike Pence may run for President, this seat is safe for him if he doesn't, and if he does, Democrats (Hammond Mayor, Thomas McDermott Jr, Gary Mayor Karen-Wilson Freeman and Congressman Andre Carson come to mind) start in a weaker position than the GOP (Congresswoman Jackie Walorski, House Speaker Brian Bosma, or Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellsperman would all become possible candidates)

North DakotaSafe R
The only way this race becomes competitive is if Heidi Heitkamp runs for the Democrats. Even then it likely won't be enough

North Carolina Tilt D
While Pat McCrory certainly can (and should) win with President Obama not on the ballot, he faces several strong opponents (Roy Cooper, Anthony Foxx and Charles Meeker)

Washington Likely D
If Jay Inslee retires (He'll be 65 in 2016) that leaves the door ajar for Republicans, who do have a decent bench here (Jamie Herrera Buetler, Cathy McMorris Rodgers and State Senator Steve Litzow).

Montana Tilt R
Montana in a Presidential year is more likely to go Republican no matter who is atop the ballot. Still, this is the closest to a tossup the Governors races will get.

West Virginia (Earl Ray Tomblin Term-Limited) Safe R
West Virginia has turned Republican quite rapidly, and Democrats have to pray that Joe Manchin doesn't run for old job.

Missouri (Nixon Term-Limited) Lean R
If Claire McCaskill runs, the Democrats probably win, but anyone else gives the GOP a big head start.

Delaware (Markell Term-Limited) Safe D
I think it's safe to say Beau Biden deciding he would run sealed it.

Senate Races

Alabama Safe R
I'll be surprised if Shelby even draws an opponent

Alaska Lean R
The Democrats best chance is if Murkowski runs (or Sarah Palin somehow winds up as the nominee), and it's a three-way race like in 2010, but their best hope of having another Senate seat here will likely be to convince Murkowski to switch parties.

Arizona Tilt D
If John McCain runs, Democrats win, If he doesn't (which is more likely) it's basically a tossup (assuming Democrats are able to recruit Richard Carmona or Kyrsten Simena)

Arkansas Safe R
Even if Mike Bebee runs (which he won't), this will be a rout.

California Safe D
Boxer's retirement will set off a free-for-all on the Democratic side of the race, so don't expect a Republican in the top-two this time.

Colorado Lean D
Michael Bennett easily could, be vulnerable, but the GOP bench in Colorado is non-existent.

Connecticut Lean D
See Colorado

Florida Tilt D
If Marco Rubio runs for President, this seat is as good as gone, while if he runs for re-election, he will face a tough opponent in the General Election (and possibly Allen West in the primary)

Georgia Lean R
Democrats will put up fight against Johnny Isakson, but a Presidential year, with a perennial Republican boogeyman atop the ballot in Hillary Clinton should save Isakson here.

Hawaii Safe D
Unless Colleen Hanabusa runs again, there will be nothing interesting about this race

Idaho Safe R
It doesn't matter if the Republicans put up incumbent Mike Crapo, Sasquatch or Charles Manson, they will win this race.

Illinois Likely D
This seat is probably gone with Senator Kirk running, and if he retires it's definitely gone.

Iowa Safe R
Assuming Senator Grassley does in fact, run for re-election, he will win.

Kansas Safe R
Despite what this year is showing, Kansas is still a very Republican state.

Kentucky Likely R
While Rand Paul may run for President, it won't matter much here (other the Republican Candidate's margin of victory)

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D

Missouri Likely R
Governor Nixon deciding not run made things much easier for Republicans (though with the chaos in Ferguson, he would have started in a hole in any hypothetical primary anyways)

Nevada Likely D
Senator Reid may not have to meddle at all in the GOP race this time, as the front-runner Brian Sandoval's semi-pro choice view-points (he was rated 50% by NARAL in 2013) would be a non-starter in a primary

New Hampshire Tilt D
If Governor Hassan runs, she wins, if not Senator Ayotte, should win re-election, if less comfortably than 2010.

New York Safe D

North Carolina Safe R


North Dakota Safe R

Ohio Tilt R
If Rob Portman runs for re-election, he wins easily. If he runs for President, this race is a pure tossup, and if he's selected VP in the middle of the campaign...all bets are off.

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Tilt R
If there was a Senate race to put at tossup, this would be it.

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R

Utah Safe R
See Utah Governor's race

Vermont Safe D

Washington Safe D

Wisconsin Likely D
Senator Johnson and Senator Kirk are the two most likely incumbents to fall for either party.

A bit Democratically optimistic, but let's go over them.

Illinois, okay, I at least see the logic. Wisconsin is a Tossup unless Feingold runs (please) then it's lean D. But Nevada? Sandoval is absolutely adored there, and if the GOP hold on the governorship is secured with the Lt. race as it is looking to be, there is no reason why he shouldn't run.

[LeBron]

Ratings, and commentary on the races will follow in the next post, since I ended up exceeding the limit of 11,000 characters. I really can't shut my big mouth.

[LeBron]

Alabama - Safe R. The only remotely interesting thing from here is the possibility of a Tea Party primary challenge to Shelby if he runs again.

Alaska - Safe R/Likely I. Murkowski's even more unpopular among her party than she was in 2010. Funnily enough, Murkowski will have to run as a write-in or an Independent again after she gets primaried by the Tea Party. If she can beat Miller or whoever is challenging her, then she easily wins re-election as a Republican. In the general as a write-in/Indie though, Alaska would also keep her around, but I would only call it a Likely I race for the fact that the GOP vote split could give Dems a slight chance if Berkowitz or even Knowles ran again.

Arizona - Tilt R. The Democrats do have a bench (Carmona, Giffords, Stanton, Sinema etc.) and either way the Republican in the general will be terrible from either being the unpopular McCain or a gaffe-prone Tea Partier. Still, I think Arizona's tilt to Republicans may be too much to overcome and undecided's will come home to McCain or whoever the Republican is.

Arkansas - Lean R, for the same reason as IceSpear that it's in the middle of two possibilities depending on what happens; Tossup with Beebe and Likely R without Beebe. Boozman only won b/c of how awful Blanche was plus it was a GOP wave; neither of those will be the case in 2016. He's stated he's running for re-election, and his health problems will take a toll on his level of campaigning and he hasn't even made a name for himself among his own GOP base. Normally, Governors don't win when they run for Senate, but I think Beebe is an exception to that rule. Obviously if Beebe doesn't run, Boozman will easily win.

California - Safe D. I'm hoping Boxer runs for re-election, but if not, obviously the CA Dems have a multitude of options; notably Kamala Harris. Republicans won't win this with or without a Boxer retirement.

Colorado - Lean D. lol CO GOP

Connecticut - Safe D. I really hope Linda runs again just to embarrass herself and waste millions more of her own money for the third time in a row. Blumenthal's safe no matter what, and Shays likely won't run.

Florida - Lean R. lol FDP

Georgia - Likely R. My money's on Isakson running for re-election. He wouldn't want to cause Democrats to win his seat as a result of another "Who can be the most conservative crazy?" primary. Besides, Kasim Reed already said he won't run and I doubt Barrow would be willing to, either. Then there's also the 50% runoff that's preventing Nunn from winning the race this year.

Hawaii - Safe D. Like Alabama, there might be an interesting primary to watch, but Schatz's got this.

Idaho - Safe R. Labrador primaries Risch. Democrats nominate a potato with a mustache. Democrat gets fried. Night night!

Illinois - Lean D. (D+1) Kirk is doomed. He pulled off a very narrow victory in a wave and Illinois Democrats have a strong list of possible challengers to him: Giannoulias, Hynes, Simon, Madigan, Kelly, Schakowsky, or Duckworth. A lot of his views and votes (such as his vote against a minimum wage increase) are too conservative for Illinois. He can win if IL Dems somehow manage to screw it up, but otherwise, he'll lose.

Indiana - Likely R. Bayh will screw us over again, and not run and let his funds go to waste. If he did run, it would be a very competitive race against Coats; otherwise, Coats beats whoever the Democratic nominee will be. I put it as only likely R for now b/c Coats isn't very strong and I want to wait for Bayh's decision.

Iowa - Safe R. Unless something unexpected happens, Grassley's running and even Vilsack is hypothetically losing by double digits to him. The Democrats already have somebody here and he won't win considering how popular Grassley is. If Grassley retires though, it's definitely a tossup and pickup opportunity.

Kansas - Safe R. We're not repeating 2014, unfortunately. Moran doesn't have the kind of killer unpopularity that Roberts does and there won't be a Kansas Republican Party schism like there was this year.

Kentucky - Likely R. It's probably not going to happen, but I left it as likely R b/c if Paul retires and Beshear, Grimes, or Mongiardo ran, then it might be competitive. The way it's looking now, Democrats hold onto control of the KY House which would end Paul's hopes for running for two offices. He already filed for re-election, and he would probably just end up telling his clown car friend Ted Cruz to be the GOP candidate in the Pres. primary for the Tea Party, in which case, it's safe if Paul runs for re-election.

Louisiana - Likely R. Despite the runoff, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. If Republicans run someone flawed like Fleming and Dems manage to get Mitch Landrieu or heck, even Edwards, then it could be in play, but this race probably won't be on the Democratic map.

Maryland - Safe D. Whether it's Mikulski running again or there's a competitive Dem primary to replace her, the MD GOP doesn't have a chance in the world.

Missouri - Tilt D. (D+1) Blunt is a very unpopular, very weak incumbent and Cuccinelli plans to make him one of the primary targets for a Tea Party challenge in 2016. If he gets by that, Missouri has a strong Democratic bench (aside from Nixon) among the likes of Zweifel, Kander, and Russ or Robin Carnahan.

Nevada - Lean D. As sad as Republicans will be about this when it happens, Sandoval is going to decline a run since he's more interested in returning to the judiciary, plus he might not want to be bothered with federal politics. Republicans already have an elected official running actually, Las Vegas Councilman Bob Beers, and obviously, he can't beat the well-funded Reid in a Presidential year. Sorry guys, he won't get Daschled.

New Hampshire - Tilt D. (D+1) Ayotte's also supposed to be getting a Tea Party challenger, likely someone from the massive legislature there, and if she survives that then Dems will have Hassan/Foster/Kuster or someone else to beat her. There's also the fact that her views are very controversial and there's the remaining possibility that she might run as someone's VP.

New York - Safe D. I really hope Schumer retires, but he wants to be Majority Leader so I doubt it.

North Carolina - Tilt R. Burr already said he was running again. With Roy Cooper running to unseat McCrory and Anthony Foxx declining, the NC Dem bench against Burr isn't that strong. Cowell and Stein would probably be among strongest, but the state's R tilt and being the incumbent slightly favors Burr I think.  

North Dakota/South Dakota - Safe R. Either of these could be contended if Hoeven and/or Thune retire and the right Democrat runs (ex. ND - Pomeroy, Schneider   SD - Sandlin, Johnson), but predictably, both are running for re-election in which case, these are safe seats.

Ohio - Tilt R. Portman's another major Cuccinelli-Zawistowski target, and while the Ohio Tea Party isn't strong, Zawistowski does have close relations with many Tea Partiers in the state, and is a great fundraiser. He's vowed to find an opponent to Portman and I'll take his word on it, seeing as how he has more time on his hands to find someone to run, and there's an up and rising Tea Party bench in Ohio from this year's elections (Lynch, Davenport, Brinkman, Becker, Koehler, Young etc.), so I wouldn't be surprised if one of them ran. Portman will probably win the primary, but he would be weakened even more. The 2 big Democratic names that everyone's mentioned (likely) won't run (Strickland's too old and isn't interested in running, Ryan has a family he's starting, likes his current position in the House and doesn't want to give up his House seat to run for Senate). Still, we do have a lot of rising stars in our state party that could run that haven't been mentioned yet, and Portman's an unpopular incumbent running in a Presidential year. I think he can be taken out, but he has a very slight edge at this moment.

Oklahoma - Safe R. Lankford's pretty young so it's almost a certainly he'll run for a full term in 2016. An open seat would also be safe R to, b/c Oklahoma.

Oregon - Safe D. Wyden didn't even have to sweat for re-election in 2010. He's very well-liked and the seat is his as long as he wants it. If he retires, then this seat is still safe for us. Keep in mind, the OR GOP Chairman is good 'ol Art Robinson.

Pennsylvania - Tilt D. (D+1) Luckily, PA has Sestak and won't have to be stuck with Kane who may not even be electable in 2016 depending on where this scandal goes. To Toomey's benefit, the background check bill will help boost him and he's had time to build a war chest, while Sestak will be running in a much better year for Democrats in a D-favoring state. If Sestak runs a good campaign, he can definitely win.

South Carolina - Safe R. It's South Carolina and Tim Scott is a popular Senator.

Utah - Likely R. Predictably, it's unlikely Matheson decides to run and manages to get Mike Lee as the GOP nominee. Lee will almost assuredly face strong establishment opposition in the primary, and if Lee loses, Matheson would struggle even more especially if his opponent is Josh Romney. Polls showed Matheson beating Hatch in a match-up in 2012, and he didn't run. In 2014, we needed him to run to still stand a chance of him holding onto his House seat, and he didn't run. He's like Bayh; he likes to piss national Democrats off.

Vermont - Safe D. Leahy said he plans to run for re-election and aside from Inouye, he had one of the best 2010 performances. He's obviously safe.

Washington - Safe D. Murray survived 2010, so it's pretty clear she should have no problem surviving 2016. If McKenna or Reichert ran, that might require Murray to spend some money, but she definitely won't lose.

Wisconsin - Lean D. (D+1) Finding someone strong to run shouldn't be a problem when you have the upper tier Feingold, Kind, Pocan and the lower tier of Vinehout, Larson, Barca, Abele etc. Nothing's guaranteed here, but Johnson pretty much did himself in these last 6 years. He knew he would face a lot of trouble with re-election, but he only made it harder for himself by aligning with the far-right.

Resulting in about a D+5 pickup.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I feel like the Democrats should be able to net around 5 seats
Top pickup possibilities in order might be

Illinois
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Arizona
Missouri
Georgia

[IceSpear]

I feel like the Democrats should be able to net around 5 seats
Top pickup possibilities in order might be

Illinois
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Arizona
Missouri
Georgia

Why do you put PA above WI?

[MATTROSE94]

My prediction is a net gain of 3-5 seats for the Democrats. I would assume that the Republicans would have an slight opportunity at picking up Nevada and Colorado, while the Democrats would likewise have an advantage in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In addition, I feel that the Democrats could also have a slight chance at defeating Richard Burr in North Carolina and also at picking up Florida, though only if Marco Rubio either decides not to run for re-election or gets primaried (since Allen West would probably be the Republican Senate nominee then).

A few months ago, I felt that the Democrats would have had a chance at picking up Arizona, Iowa and Missouri, but the Democrats chances at winning those seats have declined in my opinion. The reason why I don't see the Democrats picking up Arizona and Iowa is because both John McCain and Chuck Grassley have all but announced that they are running for re-election in 2016. In addition, I feel that Roy Blunt will be re-elected in Missouri (despite his lackluster approval ratings) due to the fact that Jay Nixon is probably not running (possibly due to fallout over his handling of the Ferguson race riots) and the fact that the Missouri Democratic Party doesn't have that strong of a bench to choose candidates from.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

A few months ago, I felt that the Democrats would have had a chance at picking up Arizona, Iowa and Missouri, but the Democrats chances at winning those seats have declined in my opinion. The reason why I don't see the Democrats picking up Arizona and Iowa is because both John McCain and Chuck Grassley have all but announced that they are running for re-election in 2016.

If anything, a John McCain run against a strong opponent like Synema or Carmona makes it an easier pick up. He's the most unpopular Senator in the country.

[MATTROSE94]

A few months ago, I felt that the Democrats would have had a chance at picking up Arizona, Iowa and Missouri, but the Democrats chances at winning those seats have declined in my opinion. The reason why I don't see the Democrats picking up Arizona and Iowa is because both John McCain and Chuck Grassley have all but announced that they are running for re-election in 2016.

If anything, a John McCain run against a strong opponent like Synema or Carmona makes it an easier pick up. He's the most unpopular Senator in the country.

Your actually right, as according to several PPP polls, McCain is actually trailing the Democrats.