These states...

[AkSaber]

1988 Results

Nevada
GOP: 206,040    58.86%   
DEM: 132,738    37.92%

Arizona
GOP: 702,541    59.95%   
DEM: 454,029    38.74% 

Florida
GOP: 2,618,885  60.87%
DEM: 1,656,701  38.51%

Virginia
GOP: 1,309,162    59.74%   
DEM: 859,799       39.23% 

New Hampshire
GOP:  281,537     62.49%   
DEM:  163,696     36.33%



I was wondering, will these states ever vote for a GOP candidate like this ever again?

[Rob]

Florida and New Hampshire, definitely not. The others could in a landslide.

[Bugs]

Political trends can be fickle.  Twenty years from now who knows what might happen.  Party platforms can change as much as the electorate.

[Alcon]

This assumes the party electorate remains the same, which won't happen, of course:

Nevada depends on the vote in Las Vegas, which can often go conservative (it voted for the amendment to ban gay marriage by a larger margin than the state as a whole - the closest was weirdly Storey County, which holds the ex-mining town of Virginia City!)

New Hampshire might vote in a landslide against a very economically liberal populist. But not 62%.

Florida won't make it to 61% except in a huge national landslide.

Arizona making it to that level wouldn't actually be that much of a stretch at all in a small landslide. Virginia, too, but in a larger landslide.

[Redefeatbush04]

1988 Results

Nevada
GOP: 206,040    58.86%   
DEM: 132,738    37.92%

Arizona
GOP: 702,541    59.95%   
DEM: 454,029    38.74% 

Florida
GOP: 2,618,885  60.87%
DEM: 1,656,701  38.51%

Virginia
GOP: 1,309,162    59.74%   
DEM: 859,799       39.23% 

New Hampshire
GOP:  281,537     62.49%   
DEM:  163,696     36.33%



I was wondering, will these states ever vote for a GOP candidate like this ever again?

Remember when South Carolina used to vote 98% democratic - whod a thunk that 50 years later it would be a republican stronghold. Anything is possible. If the parties remain unchanged and only normal members of the parties  run (no Zell Miller) I don't think that any of them will reach that total. The most likely is Arizona, the least likely is New Hampshire. While NH could vote solidly republican again (perhaps against an unpopular populist southern democrat), I doubt it would be a near-30 percent margin. If Mccain ran against a weak democrat I guarentee Arizona would reach it, however it is unlikely that he will ever be a republican ticket for president.

[MaC]

possibly with a Reagan like candidate.  Of course, considering how dynamic potlitcs can be anything could happen.  Massachussetts, New York and Hawaii could vote GOP while Utah, Idaho and Mississippi vote Dem, and the midwest votes third party.  Anything can happen really.

[AkSaber]

Hmmm. Interesting thoughts. Thanks everone! I also find myself wondering why those states would vote for a GOP candidate by a strong margin, but don't anymore. Did the Clinton years have a dramatic effect on these, some former, GOP bastions? Or did something else sway those states closer to the Dem column?

[Gustaf]

Demographics in most of these cases. The Southwest and Northeast have trended Democrat, as have the Southern states that border the Atlantic (Florida, Virginia and North Carolina). The rest of the South, the Midwest and the PLains have trended Republican.

[nclib]

Most of those states are libertarian, that's why there were more Republican in 1988 than in 2004.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Most of those states are libertarian, that's why there were more Republican in 1988 than in 2004.

Yes, social issues has moved a number of areas to the Democrats, for example: NJ, CT, VT, NH, ME, the SF bay area, Long Island, Westchester Co., and so on.  Look at 1976 to see the difference. Those areas all went to Ford.

[phk]

1988 overall was quite weird.

[Smash255]

Hmmm. Interesting thoughts. Thanks everone! I also find myself wondering why those states would vote for a GOP candidate by a strong margin, but don't anymore. Did the Clinton years have a dramatic effect on these, some former, GOP bastions? Or did something else sway those states closer to the Dem column?

Combination of a few things.  Many of the areas have become more livberal on both social & economic issues, especially social issues.  Long Island for example where I am from, use to be fairly conservative on economic issues, moderate to lean conservative on social issues.  Now is moderate on economic issues to lean liberal, and pretty socially liberal on social issues.  The National GOP has also seen a hard shift rightward especially on social issues.  Another issue is the breakdown of Machine politics.  The Machine politics of the GOP controlled many of these areas Long Island included through the late 80's & early 90's.  However, that started to break away.  The liberal trends of the areas especially to more of a socially liberal stance, at a time when the Natl GOP was moving rightward socially & when machine politics was breaking down is what has led to the shift from Republican to Democratic in these areas

[Notre Dame rules!]

1988 Results

Nevada
GOP: 206,040    58.86%   
DEM: 132,738    37.92%

Arizona
GOP: 702,541    59.95%   
DEM: 454,029    38.74% 

Florida
GOP: 2,618,885  60.87%
DEM: 1,656,701  38.51%

Virginia
GOP: 1,309,162    59.74%   
DEM: 859,799       39.23% 

New Hampshire
GOP:  281,537     62.49%   
DEM:  163,696     36.33%



I was wondering, will these states ever vote for a GOP candidate like this ever again?

If the Dems ever nominate another candidate withthe charisma of Dukakis, then yes, in a heartbeat.