CO-PPP: Gardner+2 (user search)
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  CO-PPP: Gardner+2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CO-PPP: Gardner+2  (Read 4349 times)
Smash255
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« on: September 25, 2014, 11:44:45 AM »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.

Exactly.  But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.

Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?

PPP had Obama 52-46,  result was 51.45-46.09
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