Politico: Warner's still very vulnerable!
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Warner's only polling at 51%, which suggests a stronger challenger may have had a real shot (Bill Bolling, or maybe McDonnell/Obenshain/Forbes) . But Gillespie isn't the right one, and Warner may even lead at the beginning of the count despite VA's republican counting bias. (In order to be leading at the beginning of the count as a democrat in Virginia, you need to win the election by ~16 points+, and Warner appears to be reaching and exceeding that threshold)
With his legal problems, McDonnell would lose badly, even in a wave.