AK: PPP: Close race

[Keystone Phil]

"Close race" = "Ok, so we've lost the lead in Alaska, too."

[DrScholl]

2% does indicate a close race, especially in a state like Alaska, where it isn't exactly easy to poll. The quibbling about the thread title is silly.

[The Other Castro]

Given how polls in Alaska tend to overstate Democrat's chances, its safer to categorize this as a Republican pickup at this point. Begich needs to have a consistent lead of at least 6 for Dems to be in a good position and I don't really see that happening.

[Panda Express]

Begich.... could be in trouble here.

[JRP1994]

Begich.... could be in trouble is probably the underdog here.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Begich.... could be in trouble is probably the underdog has officially fallen behind here.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Assuming this is true, the real question is...why?

[IceSpear]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

[GaussLaw]

"Close race" = "Ok, so we've lost the lead in Alaska, too."

Exactly.  If a Democrat is up, we use "Lead."  If a Republican is up, it's "Close Race."

[Never]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

[RI]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

Too bad they didn't include the 2010 Senate race where the Republican was consistently overestimated.

[Free Bird]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

Too bad they didn't include the 2010 Senate race where the Republican was consistently overestimated.

'

Perhaps because there were 3 people, and a Rep won anyway?

[Free Bird]

As long as we win KS and NC and win AK or CO we should be able to hold senate as long as Orman plays ball.

But I am skeptical about this poll.

And people called me crazy

[Maxwell]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

Too bad they didn't include the 2010 Senate race where the Republican was consistently overestimated.

There were two Republicans.

[IceSpear]

I look forward to this election cycle settling once and for all whether or not Alaska polls have a pro-incumbent or pro-Republican bias.

[Never]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

Too bad they didn't include the 2010 Senate race where the Republican was consistently overestimated.

'

Perhaps because there were 3 people, and a Rep one anyway?

Yes, a three-way election seems like it wouldn't be too comparable to a two-way election. Even in that race, while Republican Miller was overestimated, Democratic nominee Scott McAdams was overestimated in some polls, namely PPP and Rasmussen.

[MalaspinaGold]

My money's on anti-incumbent bias, and that Begich and Parnell are both ahead.

[ElectionsGuy]

Eh, Sullivan likely has the momentum now.

[MalaspinaGold]

The only positive here for Begich is that he leads 42-36 among indies, which is most of the undecided group.

[Representative Joe Mad]

Damn.  While I like Begich, and want him to win (and still believe he has a chance) I'm thinking he probably isn't going to make it out of this one.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Damn.  While I like Begich, and want him to win (and still believe he has a chance) I'm thinking he probably isn't going to make it out of this one.

Same.