AK: PPP: Close race

[Never]

Again, I don't trust Alaska polling much, but it seems like this race is really moving in Sullivan's direction now, and PPP did catch that, so this is worth something.

Also, I found it interesting that PPP polled Murkowski's approval too, even though she's not up for reelection until 2016. They seemed to note that her best path would be to run as an Independent again because her approval is positive overall but underwater with Republicans:

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[Never]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

[Never]

Both PPP and Ras have Sullivan up 2. Don't really see how that translates to a "lean R" race, especially considering the quality (or lack thereof) of Alaska polling.

Nate Silver wrote that Republicans are historically underestimated in Alaska polls by an average of 7.2%, so if that plays out this year, we could have a Lean Republican race on our hands. Nevertheless, with Alaska's polling quality so low as you mentioned, we probably won't be able to say how this race will go with any degree of confidence anyhow.

Too bad they didn't include the 2010 Senate race where the Republican was consistently overestimated.

'

Perhaps because there were 3 people, and a Rep one anyway?

Yes, a three-way election seems like it wouldn't be too comparable to a two-way election. Even in that race, while Republican Miller was overestimated, Democratic nominee Scott McAdams was overestimated in some polls, namely PPP and Rasmussen.