Quinn's problem remains that 41% figure for support. Except for the Trib poll, he hasn't been above 43%, even in Dem polls. That means he needs a strong break of the undecided towards him in the last 6 six weeks, probably at least a two to one break, to overcome the deficit.
His other problem is the 6% showing for the Libertarian Grimm. Grimm isn't advertising, so there's a good chance that much of the support is a protest vote. Historically the third party candidates overpoll compared to their results in the election. Since Grimm isn't advertising, it's hard to see him holding that full 6%. Also third party polling is usually anti-incumbent, and that was true in the Gov's race four years ago, so if that vote slips off of Grimm, it would tend to add to Rauner more than Quinn.
Third parties got 8% in 2010, so I don't see why they couldn't get 6% in 2014. As for Quinn not being able to crack 41%, that was pretty much the same logic people used to write him off in 2010. In fact, in the final pre-election average in
November he was only at 39%. And since there's still over a month left, there's plenty of time for the support of both candidates to increase.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html
