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March 04, 2021, 07:21:48 AM

  Talk Elections
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  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  MA-Rasmussen: Tied race (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA-Rasmussen: Tied race  (Read 1343 times)
Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,053
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P P
« on: September 21, 2014, 11:09:31 AM »

Yeah, not having Coakley wouldn't make this Safe D. According to hypothetical polling, the democrats having Berwick, Kayeem, or Avellone as their nominee would have actually made this a Likely R race. With everyone else, it'd be a tossup, or at the low end of Lean D/Lean R. The only democrat that looks they would have defeated Baker easily would be (congressman) Joseph P. Kennedy II.

MA is purple-blue when it comes to gubernatorial elections. Democrats have their huge registration advantage, but the right sort of republican can still do quite well.



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Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,053
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2014, 11:57:28 PM »

If Brown wanted to be a senator he probably should have stayed here too; it's not like Markey is super-popular, and if he lost he could always come back, whereas if he loses after carpetbagging to NH his career is over.

I do have to say that I found his move to NH pretty mystifying.
Scott Brown wants to have a seat that can be kept long-term much easier than one in Massachusetts. It's much easier to get reelected as a republican in NH then it is as a republican in MA. The problem is that the act of getting the office in the first place is hard when you're up against a popular senator and are carpetbagging. Hillary Clinton could do it because NY is deeply blue and Lazio was a mediocre candidate - and even then, she ran significantly behind Al Gore. Unfortunately for Brown, NH is not deeply red, and Shaheen remains a formidable candidate.
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