Talk Elections
Forum
Contact
|
US Election Atlas
Election 2020
Election Results
Election Info
Atlas Wiki
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
Did you miss your
activation email?
February 24, 2021, 01:00:37 PM
Talk Elections
Election Archive
Election Archive
2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
« previous
next »
Pages:
[
1
]
Author
Topic: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points (Read 1908 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,941
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
on:
September 20, 2014, 11:41:33 PM »
http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-corbett-wolf-poll-20140920-story.html#page=1
Wolf 52
Corbett 31
Dominating!
Logged
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,530
Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #1 on:
September 21, 2014, 12:08:52 AM »
TOSSUP!!!!! /sabato
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,941
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #2 on:
September 21, 2014, 12:18:58 AM »
Something interesting I've noticed...
Reliable non-partisan polls of this race:
Muhlenberg - Wolf +21
Quinnipiac - Wolf +24
F&M - Wolf +25
Partisan polls:
Harper - Wolf +11
Magellan - Wolf +12
Crappy polls:
YouGov - Wolf +11
Of course, nobody really cares about these differences since it's a blowout win for Wolf no matter who you believe. But the fact that there's a substantial 10 point gap between these firms is pretty interesting. In closer races, a 10 point gap would paint an incredibly different picture of any given race. I'm not saying if you tack 10 points on to the Democrat for any Harper/Magellan/YouGov poll you get reality (obviously not, since that would give Braley a double digit lead, among many other oddities), but it's interesting nevertheless.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #3 on:
September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM »
«
Edited:
September 21, 2014, 04:18:12 AM
by
When the leaves burn, summer ends. »
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
Logged
Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,008
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #4 on:
September 21, 2014, 03:07:41 AM »
Lean D. Pennsylvania really likes incumbents! (Cook)
Logged
Vega
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,257
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #5 on:
September 21, 2014, 08:10:21 AM »
I think Wolf's coattails will be enough for the Democrats to make major gains in the state House, and take control of the State Senate.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
Posts: 52,647
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #6 on:
September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM »
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,929
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #7 on:
September 21, 2014, 09:41:15 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Your boneheadedness is getting old.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
Posts: 52,647
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #8 on:
September 21, 2014, 09:54:40 AM »
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Your boneheadedness is getting old.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914
Uh. What does that prove?
Let's make a little bet, KC! If any GOP Congressional seat in PA is lost to the Dems in 2014, I'll leave the Forum. Forever. You must think there is at least one seat in play so show some guts and agree to leave for only a month - just one, full month! - if no seat flips from R to D in PA in 2014.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,929
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #9 on:
September 21, 2014, 09:58:16 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Your boneheadedness is getting old.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914
Uh. What does that prove?
Let's make a little bet, KC! If any GOP Congressional seat in PA is lost to the Dems in 2014, I'll leave the Forum. Forever. You must think there is at least one seat in play so show some guts and agree to leave for only a month - just one, full month! - if no seat flips from R to D in PA in 2014.
I never claimed that the Democrats would win a seat. You're the one who refuses to accept the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to what is going on down ballot in Pennsylvania. Since you're so certain, I encourage you to share substantiated proof of your certainty.
Logged
Vega
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,257
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #10 on:
September 21, 2014, 10:03:00 AM »
Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,696
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #11 on:
September 21, 2014, 10:12:29 AM »
Quote from: Vega on September 21, 2014, 10:03:00 AM
Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.
It definitely could flip some state house and state senate races though
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,929
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #12 on:
September 21, 2014, 10:13:36 AM »
Quote from: Vega on September 21, 2014, 10:03:00 AM
Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.
See, this certainty is unwarranted. If Republican turnout is dampened we COULD have a surprise in the 6th and the 8th. Not saying we will, but it could happen.
Logged
Vega
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,257
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #13 on:
September 21, 2014, 10:23:08 AM »
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 10:13:36 AM
Quote from: Vega on September 21, 2014, 10:03:00 AM
Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.
See, this certainty is unwarranted. If Republican turnout is dampened we COULD have a surprise in the 6th and the 8th. Not saying we will, but it could happen.
No, no it won't happen. I wish it would, but it won't this year.
Quote from: Flo on September 21, 2014, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: Vega on September 21, 2014, 10:03:00 AM
Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.
It definitely could flip some state house and state senate races though
I said that a couple posts above. Control of the State Senate is definitely in play.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,941
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #14 on:
September 21, 2014, 12:55:01 PM »
Yeah, Wolf's (potential) coattails on their own probably wouldn't be enough for Trivedi or Strouse. They're going to need some other type of opening/game changer in addition to that in order to win.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #15 on:
September 21, 2014, 02:55:54 PM »
Winning isn't actually everything. With these House races coming up again every two years sometimes just beating expectations is important.
Logged
SamInTheSouth
Jr. Member
Posts: 389
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #16 on:
September 22, 2014, 12:52:21 PM »
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 10:13:36 AM
Quote from: Vega on September 21, 2014, 10:03:00 AM
Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.
See, this certainty is unwarranted. If Republican turnout is dampened we COULD have a surprise in the 6th and the 8th. Not saying we will, but it could happen.
Why would Republican turn out be dampened when they have the momentum nation wide?
Logged
SamInTheSouth
Jr. Member
Posts: 389
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #17 on:
September 22, 2014, 12:52:55 PM »
Not sure why pollsters are still wasting money in Pennsylvania. The race is pretty much done. There is no way Corbett comes back from this.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #18 on:
September 22, 2014, 02:31:31 PM »
Quote from: SamInTheSouth on September 22, 2014, 12:52:55 PM
Not sure why pollsters are still wasting money in Pennsylvania. The race is pretty much done. There is no way Corbett comes back from this.
Because Pennsylvania pollsters are always going to poll important Pennsylvania races.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,573
PA: Muhlenberg College: Wolf With Large Lead in Pennsylavnia
«
Reply #19 on:
September 22, 2014, 03:06:08 PM »
New Poll:
Pennsylvania Governor by Muhlenberg College on 2014-09-18
Summary: D: 54%, R: 33%, I: 4%, U: 9%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
Posts: 52,647
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #20 on:
September 22, 2014, 05:26:19 PM »
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:58:16 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Your boneheadedness is getting old.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914
Uh. What does that prove?
Let's make a little bet, KC! If any GOP Congressional seat in PA is lost to the Dems in 2014, I'll leave the Forum. Forever. You must think there is at least one seat in play so show some guts and agree to leave for only a month - just one, full month! - if no seat flips from R to D in PA in 2014.
I never claimed that the Democrats would win a seat. You're the one who refuses to accept the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to what is going on down ballot in Pennsylvania. Since you're so certain, I encourage you to share substantiated proof of your certainty.
There's zero uncertainty when it comes to the Congressional races. State legislature? Sure. Congressional? No.
Logged
Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,008
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #21 on:
September 22, 2014, 08:52:50 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 22, 2014, 05:26:19 PM
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:58:16 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Your boneheadedness is getting old.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914
Uh. What does that prove?
Let's make a little bet, KC! If any GOP Congressional seat in PA is lost to the Dems in 2014, I'll leave the Forum. Forever. You must think there is at least one seat in play so show some guts and agree to leave for only a month - just one, full month! - if no seat flips from R to D in PA in 2014.
I never claimed that the Democrats would win a seat. You're the one who refuses to accept the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to what is going on down ballot in Pennsylvania. Since you're so certain, I encourage you to share substantiated proof of your certainty.
There's zero uncertainty when it comes to the Congressional races. State legislature? Sure. Congressional? No.
So, even if F&M is right and Wolf wins by 31 (I doubt it, but it's within the realm of possibility), you don't see the 6th and/or 8th district congressional seat(s) flipping? It's worth noting that most prognosticators still have at least one of these two seats at only Likely R, which indicates a small level of uncertainty in the outcome of the race.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
Posts: 52,647
Re: PA-Muhlenberg: Wolf up 21 points
«
Reply #22 on:
September 22, 2014, 09:24:17 PM »
Quote from: Wulfric on September 22, 2014, 08:52:50 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 22, 2014, 05:26:19 PM
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:58:16 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Quote from: When the leaves burn, summer ends. on September 21, 2014, 02:25:57 AM
I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.
This puts exactly zero House seats in play.
Your boneheadedness is getting old.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914
Uh. What does that prove?
Let's make a little bet, KC! If any GOP Congressional seat in PA is lost to the Dems in 2014, I'll leave the Forum. Forever. You must think there is at least one seat in play so show some guts and agree to leave for only a month - just one, full month! - if no seat flips from R to D in PA in 2014.
I never claimed that the Democrats would win a seat. You're the one who refuses to accept the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to what is going on down ballot in Pennsylvania. Since you're so certain, I encourage you to share substantiated proof of your certainty.
There's zero uncertainty when it comes to the Congressional races. State legislature? Sure. Congressional? No.
So, even if F&M is right and Wolf wins by 31 (I doubt it, but it's within the realm of possibility), you don't see the 6th and/or 8th district congressional seat(s) flipping? It's worth noting that most prognosticators still have at least one of these two seats at only Likely R, which indicates a small level of uncertainty in the outcome of the race.
Read this perfectly clear post: I absolutely do not see that happening. The Gubernatorial race has had zero impact on those races. If either was to flip, it would be unrelated to Corbett. Either Fitz or Costello would have to make some fairly sizable gaffe. Other than that, neither will flip even if Wolf won by thirty points.
If either seat flips, I leave this place for good. Write it down.
Logged
Pages:
[
1
]
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2024 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results
=> Presidential Election Process
===> Polling
=> Presidential Election Trends
=> Election What-ifs?
===> Past Election What-ifs (US)
===> Alternative Elections
===> International What-ifs
-----------------------------
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Gubernatorial/State Elections
===> 2022 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls
=> Congressional Elections
===> 2022 Senate & House Election Polls
=> International Elections
=> Election Predictions
-----------------------------
About this Site
-----------------------------
===> How To
=> The Atlas
-----------------------------
General Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Constitution and Law
=> Religion & Philosophy
=> History
===> Alternative History
-----------------------------
General Politics
-----------------------------
=> U.S. General Discussion
=> Political Geography & Demographics
=> International General Discussion
=> Economics
=> Individual Politics
=> Political Debate
===> Political Essays & Deliberation
===> Book Reviews and Discussion
-----------------------------
Election Archive
-----------------------------
=> Election Archive
===> 2018 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2016 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
===> 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2014 House Election Polls
=====> 2014 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2012 Elections
=====> 2012 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2012 House Election Polls
=====> 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2010 Elections
=====> 2010 House Election Polls
=====> 2010 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2008 Elections
=====> 2008 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
===> 2006 Elections
=====> 2006 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
===> Town Hall
===> Survivor
===> 2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2020 Senate & House Election Polls
-----------------------------
Forum Community
-----------------------------
=> Forum Community
===> Forum Community Election Match-ups
=> Election and History Games
===> Mock Parliament
=> Off-topic Board
-----------------------------
Atlas Fantasy Elections
-----------------------------
=> Atlas Fantasy Elections
===> Voting Booth
=> Atlas Fantasy Government
===> Constitutional Convention
===> Regional Governments
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Terms of Service
-
DMCA Agent and Policy
-
Privacy Policy and Cookies
Powered by SMF 1.1.21
|
SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
Page created in 0.184 seconds with 14 queries.
Loading...